This Sunday, two 3-1 teams, the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills, square off in what could be a critical game for playoff positioning in the AFC. Both teams have shown flashes of brilliance but also suffered blowout losses, making this matchup an opportunity for either side to assert themselves as a legitimate contender. The stakes are high, and as the season progresses, the result of this game could play a significant role in playoff seeding. To add to the intrigue, star receiver Stefon Diggs faces his former team, the Buffalo Bills, after a tumultuous final year in Buffalo. Rumors swirled about his dissatisfaction with being phased out of the offense last season, especially in the second half of the year. This storyline brings an added edge to an already compelling game, with Diggs eager to show his former team what they’ve lost. Keys to the Game for the Texans: Defense Stopping the Run Game The Bills' offense has evolved under offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who took over midway last year. Brady simplified the scheme, focusing on keeping Josh Allen out of risky situations by leaning on the run game and incorporating more methodical drives. This approach has unlocked running back James Cook, both as a runner and a receiver. The Texans must prioritize stopping the run and limiting Cook’s impact to disrupt the Bills' offensive rhythm. Containing the Short to Intermediate Passing Game Another hallmark of this revamped Bills offense is the short and intermediate passing attack. Slot receiver Khalil Shakir and tight ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid are pivotal in this scheme. Limiting Shakir, in particular, will be key, though it’s uncertain if he will play after suffering an ankle injury in the Bills’ Monday night loss to the Ravens . If Shakir suits up, the Texans could face coverage concerns in the slot, where safety Jalen Pitre has been effective against the run but less so in coverage. The hopeful return of Jimmie Ward could bolster the secondary, giving Houston a better chance to contain Shakir and the tight ends. Forcing Josh Allen Into Turnovers If the Texans can stymie the Bills' run game and force them into 3rd-and-long situations, they have a shot at pushing Josh Allen back into his turnover-prone tendencies. Houston’s defense must be disciplined in their pass rush and tackling, as Allen is known for breaking tackles and extending plays. Containing him in the pocket and avoiding missed tackles will be critical for Houston to capitalize on any opportunities for takeaways. Keys to the Game for the Texans: Offense Establishing the Run Game The Texans' run game has struggled since a strong Week 1 performance against the Colts. Joe Mixon’s ankle injury has been a factor, as he’s missed time since Week 2 and remains a question mark for this game . Mixon’s availability will be crucial, as Houston needs a decisive runner to take advantage of the Bills' weakness in run defense, where they allow 156 rushing yards per game, ranking 30th in the league. If Mixon can't go, Cam Akers will likely make his third start of the season, which could make it difficult for the Texans to establish the run. Neutralizing the Bills' Two-High Safety Looks The Bills rely heavily on two-high safety looks, inviting opponents to run the ball while using a bend-but-don’t-break approach. For Houston, establishing the run is vital not just for ball control but also to force the Bills out of their two-high shells. Success on the ground will create more manageable third downs, potentially opening up deep shots for C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ passing attack. Exploiting a Weakened Pass Rush The Texans' offensive line has an encouraging matchup in pass protection this week, as the Bills rank 22nd in pressure rate at just 30.3% (via Next Gen Stats). Buffalo’s pass rush took a further hit with Von Miller being suspended for four games due to a violation of the NFL’s conduct policy . This gives Stroud and the Texans’ offense a prime opportunity to find success through the air, especially if they can keep the chains moving with a balanced attack. Rest Advantage It’s also worth noting that the Texans have a rest advantage in this matchup. Houston played a Sunday noon game last week, while the Bills are coming off a grueling Monday Night Football game against the Ravens. This extra day of rest could give the Texans an edge, particularly in the fourth quarter when fatigue sets in. Final Thoughts With two evenly matched teams, the outcome of this game could come down to which side executes their game plan better. The Texans have a real shot to make a statement and solidify their status as a contender in the AFC. For Houston, the keys are clear: win the battle in the trenches, control the clock with the run game, and contain Josh Allen’s playmaking abilities. If they can do that, they’ll leave this pivotal matchup with a hard-fought victory and a leg up in the AFC playoff race.