Texans Fall to 0-3: This Loss Is Harder to Explain Away

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I was able to find plenty of context for the Texans’ first two losses of the season. Buffalo was a tough Week 1 matchup against a really good team where Houston had opportunities to win and simply didn’t make enough plays. Cincinnati was more frustrating, particularly offensively, but the Texans were without Nico Collins and Ed Ingram and faced a defensive front featuring Dexter Lawrence and Jonathan Allen that completely overwhelmed their offensive line.

Some of that context still existed Sunday. Collins and Ingram remained out, and the Colts have plenty of talent up front themselves with DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart. But this was also a much more favorable matchup on paper against a Colts defense that had struggled badly through the first two weeks, and Houston actually got several of the things I thought it needed to win.

The defense forced three turnovers, including two strip sacks, and Will Anderson Jr. was outstanding. Reed Blankenship added an interception. The Texans finished plus-three in the turnover differential and still found a way to lose.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cj74KvcPbAs&t=2946s

That’s what makes this one harder for me to explain away. The Texans are 0-3, and while there is context behind every NFL loss, at some point it only matters so much. Houston had more than enough opportunities to win this game and still couldn’t do it.

The Offense Failed C.J. Stroud Again

I want to go through the All-22 before making definitive judgments about every individual play, but my initial takeaway remains the same as it has been throughout this start: C.J. Stroud is not the problem.

If anything, I thought Stroud played well again despite an environment around him that continues to make playing quarterback unnecessarily difficult. The offensive line struggled badly early, there was rarely a consistent pocket to step into, the running game provided little help and the receivers continued to have problems both catching the football and seemingly being where they were supposed to be.

The offensive line did settle down some as the game progressed, which was almost the inverse of what we had seen previously when the protection started relatively well before deteriorating late. Still, the overall performance wasn't close to good enough.

That's particularly concerning because this wasn't Dexter Lawrence wrecking the game. DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart are good interior defensive linemen, but Houston is going to encounter good defensive fronts throughout the season. If the Texans' offensive identity is supposed to revolve around physicality and running the football inside, they cannot become dysfunctional every time they face quality players in the middle.

This is where I see a disconnect between personnel and philosophy. Nick Caley and DeMeco Ryans want this offense to be physical and establish an interior running game, but if your personnel cannot consistently execute that style, continuing to force it isn't toughness. At some point, you have to adapt to what your players actually do well.

Houston has a quarterback who has repeatedly looked comfortable when the offense spreads things out and allows him to operate quickly. There are athletic players who can function in space. There are other ways to attack a defense on the ground besides repeatedly trying to move defensive tackles who are beating your offensive line.

Spread teams out. Use more outside runs. Create cutback opportunities. Move the pocket. Get into tempo. Manufacture easy throws. Do something to mitigate the weaknesses you already know you have.

Instead, Houston continues trying to establish an offensive identity that its personnel hasn't shown it can consistently execute.

The Receiver Situation Isn't Sustainable

The offensive line deserves plenty of criticism, but the receivers aren't helping Stroud either. The drops are frustrating enough, but I'm almost more concerned by the mental and spacing issues that continue to show up.

There were multiple instances Sunday where two Texans receivers ended up in essentially the same area of the field, and going back through those plays on the All-22 only reinforced what I thought I saw live. One of the most frustrating came before halftime when Stroud delivered a ball downfield under pressure with two receivers converging in the same area. There was potentially a huge play available, but the spacing was completely jumbled.

Later, Stroud escaped pressure, extended the play and took a hit while delivering a good ball toward Xavier Hutchinson near the sideline. Again, Houston had two receivers working into essentially the same window, and Hutchinson ultimately dropped the pass.

I can't definitively assign responsibility for the spacing without knowing the exact route assignments and adjustments, but the All-22 makes the larger problem pretty clear: Houston had receivers occupying the same areas of the field on multiple plays when they shouldn't have been.

That's what concerns me beyond the drops themselves. A receiver is going to drop a pass occasionally. Repeated issues with routes, spacing and assignments are different, and at some point those repeated mistakes become a coaching problem too.

Nico Collins is obviously a huge part of this offense, and any team is going to be worse without a player of his caliber. But you cannot build an operation that completely falls apart whenever one receiver is unavailable. Houston had a full week to prepare without him, and the passing game still looked like Stroud was being asked to overcome everything around him.

That's also why I continue to question the usage of Jaylin Noel and Marlin Klein. If the receivers on the field aren't separating, aren't consistently making contested catches and are having assignment or spacing issues, why aren't you giving other players opportunities?

Klein barely seeing the field remains particularly confusing. Houston traded up to draft him in the second round, we've already seen his athletic ability, and this offense desperately needs another receiving threat. The Texans have alluded to both his blocking and his grasp of the offense as reasons he isn't ready for a larger role, and I understand how those things can limit what you ask a young tight end to do. But they shouldn't prevent you from finding specific ways to get him on the field as a receiving threat, especially when the alternatives aren't consistently producing. Give him a defined package, split him out when it makes sense and simplify his responsibilities. You don't need him to master every aspect of the position right now to find ways to utilize something he already does well.

The goal should be getting your best players onto the field and putting them in positions to succeed. It shouldn't be how much offense they can memorize before they're allowed to contribute.

At Some Point, Nick Caley Has to Adapt

I don't think every unsuccessful play is a bad play call. Sometimes an offensive lineman gets beat. Sometimes a receiver drops the ball or runs the wrong route. Sometimes the defense simply wins the rep.

But three games into this season, there is very little about Houston's offense that looks easy. That's my biggest issue with Caley right now.

You have C.J. Stroud. Why does everything have to be so difficult?

Why can't Houston consistently manufacture easy completions? Why are receivers repeatedly ending up in the same areas? Why does the short-yardage offense remain so predictable? Why are some of the team's more athletic receiving options barely playing? Why does Stroud often seem most comfortable when Houston gets into tempo and the operation becomes simpler?

We've heard plenty about how complicated this offense can be, particularly for young players and tight ends who have responsibilities in both the running and passing games. Complexity isn't inherently a bad thing. It becomes a problem when the complexity starts preventing your players from actually playing football.

If your players aren't consistently executing the system, simplify the system. If your preferred running game isn't working behind your offensive line, change the running game. If your quarterback looks better operating a certain way, lean into it.

There has to be a willingness to adapt.

DeMeco's Game Management Hurt Them

There were plenty of reasons the Texans lost Sunday, from the offensive line and receivers to the play calling and special teams. But even with all of that, I think DeMeco Ryans' own game management ultimately cost Houston a game it still had every opportunity to win.

What makes it especially frustrating is that DeMeco seemingly went against his usual philosophy from the very beginning. After spending most of his head-coaching career leaning conservative and trusting his defense, he won the opening coin toss and elected to receive because, as he explained afterward, Houston wanted to establish an aggressive mindset offensively. The Texans promptly went three-and-out.

Will Anderson Jr. immediately gave them another chance with a strip sack, essentially handing the offense another opening possession. Houston was handed the ball in scoring range, faced fourth-and-1 and DeMeco stayed aggressive, passing up a very makeable field goal to go for it.

I don't have a problem with aggression. I've spent plenty of time arguing that DeMeco should be more aggressive in the right situations, and the fourth-down model supported going for it there. But there's a difference between having an aggressive philosophy and seemingly reacting to what happened the previous week. After being heavily criticized for an extremely conservative decision against Cincinnati, DeMeco acknowledged Monday that he entered this game specifically wanting to be aggressive. From the outside, the sudden shift felt almost desperate rather than like part of a consistent game-management philosophy.

And while hindsight obviously plays a role, those three points ended up being enormous. Houston lost by two. You can't simply add a first-quarter field goal to the final score and declare that Houston automatically wins because everything afterward could have unfolded differently, but it reinforces how costly the decision became in a game where points were once again at a premium.

My bigger problem was the combination of the decision and the play itself. If you're going to pass up the points, give your struggling offense a better answer than another uninspired interior short-yardage run behind an offensive line that was already getting beaten up front. Indianapolis later faced its own short-yardage situation and used Daniel Jones on a designed quarterback run to convert. Houston continued asking its offensive line to win a matchup it had already shown it wasn't consistently winning.

The inconsistency continued later in the game. DeMeco came in emphasizing aggression and was aggressive early, but then reverted toward his usual conservative tendencies in other fourth-down situations where the numbers favored going for it. There is obviously more nuance to these decisions than blindly following an analytics model. Personnel matters. The play caller matters. How your offense and defense are performing matters. Feel for the game matters. But the more you bounce between aggressive and conservative without a consistent underlying philosophy, the more it starts to feel like you're pulling levers in real time and hoping you choose the right one.

Then came the end-of-game clock management, which was even harder for me to understand.

Indianapolis was driving for the potential winning field goal, and Houston needed to preserve as much time as possible for Stroud in case the Colts scored. Instead, DeMeco allowed valuable seconds to bleed off the clock before eventually calling timeout because he didn't like the defensive look. Had Keenan Allen's third-down reception been ruled a first down, Indianapolis likely could have drained almost all of the remaining time before attempting the field goal.

DeMeco acknowledged afterward that he needed to get the timeout called sooner, and I appreciate him owning it. But that's also exactly why I think Houston needs a more structured process for these situations. A head coach is simultaneously managing his defense, personnel, officials, down and distance and everything else happening on the sideline. Why not have someone specifically responsible for clock and situational management who can immediately tell him when to use the timeout? There is too much information and data available for these decisions to feel like they're being worked through on the fly.

DeMeco said Monday that criticism comes with being the head coach and that he's "man enough to own those decisions." I respect that, and I actually appreciated his accountability after this loss. But owning the decisions doesn't make them less consequential.

The offense wasn't good enough. The receivers weren't good enough. The offensive line wasn't good enough. Special teams made mistakes. The defense wasn't perfect either.

All of that can be true while this is also true: DeMeco Ryans' game management helped turn a very winnable football game into a loss.

For a team that has constructed itself around playing close, defensive football where points are at a premium, the head coach has to be one of its biggest advantages in those margins. Right now, DeMeco is pulling too many of the wrong levers at the wrong times.

The Defense Did Enough to Win

I don't think the defense was perfect Sunday, but forcing three turnovers without your own offense giving the ball away should be enough to win an NFL game.

Will Anderson Jr. was fantastic. The defensive front created pressure, Houston finally generated some of the turnovers that had been missing through the first two weeks, and Blankenship made another play on the football. At the same time, the defense still had some of the issues we've discussed throughout the start of the season, particularly allowing explosive plays and failing to get off the field in some important third-down situations.

The late completion to Keenan Allen was especially frustrating. If you're going to bring pressure against Daniel Jones, giving a veteran underneath receiver that much cushion near the sticks is asking for trouble. Allen isn't someone I'm primarily worried about beating Houston vertically. He's exactly the type of smart, reliable receiver who understands leverage and spacing and is going to make himself available in those situations.

Ironically, he's also exactly the type of receiver I wanted Houston to add this offseason (and the specific one). With Nico unavailable, the contrast was pretty obvious.

Indianapolis had a veteran receiver Jones could trust to be in the right place and make difficult catches in important moments. Houston's quarterback spent much of the afternoon dealing with the opposite.

Still, I'm not putting this loss on the defense. Three takeaways have to be enough.

Special Teams Continue to Add to the Problem

## Special Teams Continue to Lose the Hidden-Yardage Battle

Special teams have become a recurring problem for the Texans, and Sunday might have been the clearest example yet of just how much hidden yardage Houston is giving away.

Ka'imi Fairbairn had three kickoffs result in touchbacks that gave Indianapolis the ball at the 35-yard line, including the one preceding the Colts' final drive for the game-winning field goal. In a game decided by three points, Houston repeatedly gave Indianapolis favorable starting field position without the Colts having to earn a yard.

DeMeco said afterward that Fairbairn was instructed to kick the ball near the goal line and simply didn't execute it properly. I understand that explanation on an individual play, but at some point repeated execution problems become a coaching problem too. Fairbairn has struggled to consistently execute this style of kickoff since the NFL changed the format. If that's the kick Houston wants, it needs to be emphasized and practiced enough that he can execute it consistently. And if he can't, then you have to consider another option, including using the punter for kickoffs.

Indianapolis provided a pretty good example of that Sunday. Their kicker was dealing with an injury and was still able to handle field goals, but the Colts took kickoff duties off his plate and used their punter instead. Their kickoff operation still functioned exactly how they needed it to.

The problems go well beyond Fairbairn, though. Houston's coverage units continue to give away yards on both kickoffs and punts, while the return units haven't provided much going the other direction either. The blocking has been poor, the returns haven't consistently created anything and it feels like the Texans are starting too many possessions at a field-position disadvantage.

Those yards don't show up as an offensive turnover or a defensive explosive play, but they matter just as much. Ten yards here, another 10 or 15 there, a touchback to the 35 instead of pinning an opponent deeper, a poor return that leaves your own offense backed up. Over the course of an entire game, those hidden yards accumulate.

That's especially damaging for a team constructed the way Houston is. If you're going to rely on an elite defense and play close games where points are at a premium, special teams cannot consistently make the field longer for your offense and shorter for the opponent.

That's really the broader problem with this team through three games: there has been very little complementary football. When one phase creates an advantage, another seems to give part of it right back. Sunday, Houston's defense created three turnovers, yet the offense failed to capitalize consistently and the special teams continued surrendering field position.

For a team losing games on razor-thin margins, Houston is giving away far too many of those margins before the offense or defense even takes the field.

The Most Encouraging Thing Came After the Game

For all of my criticism of DeMeco, I actually appreciated his demeanor immediately after the loss more than I have after some previous ones. He seemed humbled by it and, more importantly, repeatedly put the responsibility on himself. When asked about decisions he made during the game, he didn't immediately defend everything. He acknowledged that he would look at those situations, evaluate whether he could have made better decisions and repeatedly emphasized that fixing this starts with him.

After listening to his Monday press conference, though, I came away a little less encouraged. There was still accountability, including admitting that he needed to call the late timeout sooner, but there was also more of the familiar messaging about how close NFL games are, taking away the positives and things not necessarily being as bad as they might seem from the outside.

Some of that is completely understandable. A head coach probably shouldn't stand at the podium and publicly tear apart his own team every week, and none of us knows whether his message behind closed doors is considerably different from the one he gives publicly. Ultimately, I don't care that much about what DeMeco says at a press conference anyway. I care about whether what we're seeing on Sundays actually changes.

My frustration in the past has been that legitimate criticism can sometimes get lumped into "outside noise," particularly if the Texans eventually start winning. I don't want this to become another situation where Houston digs itself out of a hole and the takeaway becomes that nobody believed in them. People are criticizing this team because the expectations were deservedly high and the problems are visible. The answer isn't proving the critics wrong. It's fixing the problems they're criticizing.

That's also why, in a strange way, maybe there is some long-term value in a loss like this. Had Houston escaped Indianapolis with a win despite all of these same issues, it would have been much easier to fall back on the idea that every game in the NFL is close, winning is difficult and they ultimately found a way. Instead, they lost a game in which they were plus-three in the turnover differential and had multiple opportunities to take control.

At 0-3, there is much less room to explain away the problems. Whether DeMeco sounds positive, frustrated, accountable or defensive at the podium ultimately doesn't matter much anymore. What matters is whether this loss actually forces the Texans to address them.

Where Do They Go From Here?

I still believe this roster has enough talent to recover. Maybe that sounds overly optimistic after an 0-3 start, but I can absolutely envision Houston eventually putting together a run and getting its record back into respectable territory.

My concern has changed, though.

Before Sunday, one of my biggest concerns was what would happen if this offensive line encountered an elite interior defensive front in the postseason. Now I'm wondering whether this offense can consistently function against merely good ones. That's a much larger problem.

Even if Houston eventually starts stacking wins, I'm going to need to see meaningful changes before buying back into this team as the legitimate contender many of us thought it could be entering the season.

That doesn't necessarily mean firing everybody or completely rebuilding the offense three weeks into the year. It means adapting. Try different personnel combinations on the offensive line. Get Noel and Klein involved. Find more creative ways to run the football. Simplify things if necessary. Build more of the offense around what Stroud does best. Clean up the situational management. Stop losing hidden yards on special teams.

The Texans have overcome terrible starts before. I don't care anymore. Starting 0-3 in previous seasons doesn't make starting 0-3 this season acceptable.

This roster is too talented for that excuse.

Stroud is holding up his end of the bargain. Will Anderson Jr. is holding up his end of the bargain. There are foundational players on this roster playing winning football, but too much around them isn't.

Houston isn't 0-3 because of outside noise or because people expected too much from them. They're 0-3 because through three games they haven't played good enough complementary football, haven't coached consistently enough and haven't adapted quickly enough when their original plans haven't worked.

Maybe this loss is finally the moment that forces those changes.

Because at 0-3, something has to.