Aaron Schatz: Why the Houston Texans Are the AFC Favorites in 2026
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For much of the 2025 season, the national conversation around the Houston Texans centered on what went wrong offensively. C.J. Stroud's numbers dipped from his sensational rookie campaign, the running game never found consistency, and the offensive line struggled to provide stability.
According to Aaron Schatz, creator of DVOA and CEO of FTN Fantasy, much of that narrative overlooked the bigger picture.
During a recent interview on Second Guessan with Stressan, Schatz explained why his projections view Houston far differently than much of the public. In fact, the Texans enter the 2026 season as FTN's projected favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.
Texans Separate Themselves in the AFC
Schatz noted that Houston doesn't simply edge out the competition in FTN's projections—they stand alone.
"The Texans come out as our AFC favorites... they're like a full win ahead of any other team in the AFC."
Houston finished as the highest-rated AFC team in DVOA during the 2025 regular season despite offensive inconsistencies, and the projection model expects another step forward this year.
For Texans fans who believe last season's record failed to reflect the team's overall quality, Schatz's data offers validation.
Why The Offense Should Improve
One of the biggest reasons for the optimism is the expectation that Houston's offense simply won't be dealing with the same obstacles.
Schatz pointed to several factors:
The addition of David Montgomery to stabilize the running game.
Significant investments made along the offensive line.
Tank Dell returning to the lineup.
Continuity entering Year 2 under offensive coordinator Nick Caley.
None of those changes guarantee an elite offense, but they don't have to.
"If they simply become above average offensively," Schatz explained, "that paired with an elite defense makes them one of the league's best teams."
C.J. Stroud Is Better Than People Think
Perhaps the strongest takeaway from the conversation centered on quarterback C.J. Stroud.
Schatz believes much of the public perception has become skewed by Houston's playoff exit rather than Stroud's body of work throughout the regular season.
"C.J. Stroud himself is much better than people realize... He was 11th in passing DVOA during the regular season."
He argued that Stroud consistently operated under difficult circumstances.
The Texans lacked a functional rushing attack, forcing the offense into an unusually high number of third-and-long situations. DVOA evaluates every play relative to its situation, and despite those unfavorable conditions, Stroud still graded as one of the league's better quarterbacks.
As Schatz explained, improving the running game doesn't just create rushing yards—it creates easier passing situations.
Houston doesn't need Stroud throwing for 5,000 yards.
They simply need him operating in more manageable down-and-distance situations.
David Montgomery's Biggest Impact
Interestingly, Schatz admitted analytics generally view running backs as replaceable.
However, he believes Houston is one of the exceptions.
The issue wasn't necessarily finding an elite runner—it was simply raising the floor after one of the league's least effective rushing attacks.
Even an average rushing offense could dramatically change the complexion of Houston's passing game by avoiding constant third-and-long situations.
The Defense Remains the Foundation
While offense receives most of the attention, Schatz believes Houston's defense remains the team's greatest strength.
FTN projects the Texans to field the No. 2 defense in football, trailing only Seattle.
Although defensive performance is generally harder to predict year-to-year than offense, Schatz believes Houston's talent makes them more stable than most elite defenses.
Rather than relying heavily on scheme or unsustainable turnover production, the Texans are built around elite young players across multiple position groups.
As long as health cooperates, he expects Houston to remain among the NFL's premier defenses.
Expectations Meet Analytics
One point Schatz emphasized throughout the interview is that projections aren't based on wishful thinking.
Houston was already the highest-rated AFC team by DVOA in 2025. The offseason changes simply give the model additional reasons to project improvement.
Even he acknowledged that being the favorite doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl appearance.
"If you're the favorite," he said, "you only make it about 25 percent of the time."
Still, the combination of an improving offense, an elite defense, a favorable schedule, and confidence in Stroud creates one of the strongest outlooks in the league.
For Texans fans, it's another respected voice reinforcing what many around Houston have believed all offseason: the window isn't opening—it has already opened.
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