Why Nate Tice Is Picking the Houston Texans to Win the AFC

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Nate Tice is picking the Houston Texans to win the AFC.

Appearing on the Football America! podcast with Dave Dameshek, the Yahoo Sports NFL analyst said that if he had to choose an AFC champion entering the 2026 season, Houston would be his pick.

"If right now, middle of July, gun to my head had to pick an AFC champion, the Texans are my leader."

While many preseason predictions continue to center around teams like the Chiefs, Bills and Ravens, Tice believes the Texans have assembled the right combination of elite defense, offensive improvements and quarterback play to emerge from what he views as a wide-open conference.

Here's why he's buying into Houston.

The AFC Doesn't Have a Clear Favorite

Tice's first point wasn't necessarily about the Texans—it was about the rest of the conference.

He believes the AFC enters 2026 without a dominant team separating itself from the field. Last season, many of the conference's traditional contenders dealt with injuries, coaching changes or inconsistencies, and Tice thinks that uncertainty continues heading into this year.

Instead of seeing one overwhelming favorite, he sees an opportunity for a balanced team like Houston to break through.

Houston Already Has One of the NFL's Best Defenses

The biggest reason for Tice's confidence is the Texans' defense.

In his view, Houston fielded one of the league's premier units last season, but it didn't receive enough recognition because of how the year ended offensively.

"If the Seahawks didn't exist last year, we'd be talking about the Texans defense as an all-time defense."

Tice praised the roster for having elite players at every level while also possessing quality depth throughout the defense.

Rather than relying on a handful of stars, he believes Houston has one of the NFL's most complete defensive rosters from top to bottom.

The Offense Doesn't Need to Be Elite

Despite his confidence in Houston, Tice isn't predicting the Texans will suddenly become one of football's highest-scoring offenses.

Instead, he believes average is more than enough.

He said the Texans spent the offseason making improvements where they mattered most, particularly along the offensive line.

Tice described Houston's offseason approach as going "from awful to not awful," explaining that the offensive line quietly improved late last season after settling on a consistent starting five.

If that progression continues and the unit simply reaches league average, he believes it dramatically changes the outlook of the offense.

David Montgomery Can Transform the Run Game

Another key reason Tice is optimistic is the addition of David Montgomery.

Rather than focusing on explosive plays, he praised Montgomery's consistency, efficiency and ability to maximize every opportunity.

"He has zero fat to his game," Tice said, noting Montgomery rarely leaves yards on the field and consistently gets what's blocked.

Tice also believes Montgomery's impact extends well beyond carrying the football.

He pointed to Houston's struggles in pass protection from the running back position over the past several seasons, saying opposing defenses frequently created pressure by attacking the Texans' backs in protection.

Montgomery's experience in pass protection should help alleviate some of those issues while providing C.J. Stroud with cleaner pockets.

An Average Run Game Would Be a Massive Step Forward

Tice believes Houston's rushing attack has quietly been one of the NFL's weakest units for years.

Using rushing success rate as his preferred metric, he noted the Texans have ranked last in the league over the past three seasons.

Because the baseline has been so low, he doesn't believe Houston needs to become a dominant rushing team.

Simply becoming average would create more favorable situations for Stroud and make the offense considerably more efficient.

Tice Thinks C.J. Stroud Is Being Underrated

Tice also defended Stroud following a season that generated increased criticism.

"I think Stroud played better last year than people realize. It's just the end was so bad that's what everyone's focusing on."

He acknowledged Houston's disappointing finish but believes public perception has become overly influenced by the final stretch of the season.

After Stroud returned from injury and the offensive line stabilized, Tice said he could see signs of the offense beginning to take shape.

He considers Stroud a "locked-in top-14 quarterback" and believes that's more than enough to win a Super Bowl when paired with an elite defense.

He also expects the improvements around Stroud to help reduce sacks while allowing him to continue playing aggressively down the field.

Houston Quietly Improved the Supporting Cast

Beyond Montgomery and the offensive line, Tice likes the direction of Houston's offensive personnel.

He called Nico Collins a star and expressed optimism about rookie receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. He also highlighted rookie tight end Marlin Klein as another addition that strengthens the offense's depth.

None of those moves individually transform the unit, but collectively Tice believes they raise the overall floor of the offense.

Why Tice Believes Houston Can Win the AFC

Ultimately, Tice's prediction isn't based on the Texans suddenly becoming an offensive juggernaut.

Instead, it's built around an elite defense remaining elite while the offense simply becomes functional.

If Houston can pair an average offensive line, an improved rushing attack, better pass protection and a healthy C.J. Stroud with one of the NFL's premier defenses, Tice believes the Texans have all the ingredients needed to emerge from a wide-open AFC.

For Tice, that combination is enough to make Houston his preseason pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.