Texans vs. Bengals Preview: How Houston Can Get Back on Track in Week 2
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The Texans didn't get the result they wanted against Buffalo, but I came out of Week 1 more encouraged than I expected to be. Now they have to turn some of those encouraging signs into a win against Cincinnati.
This is also going to be a pretty different challenge.
Buffalo attacked Houston with heavy personnel, extra protection and Dalton Kincaid, while Josh Allen repeatedly gave his receivers chances downfield. Cincinnati is built differently. Everything starts with Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, with Chase Brown giving them an explosive option in both the run and passing games.
The Texans will also be without several important players. Nico Collins and Ed Ingram are out offensively, while Henry To'oTo'o is on IR and Jadeveon Clowney won't play on defense. That's a lot of talent missing, but I still think there are some matchups Houston can attack if it plays this game the right way.
How does the offense function without Nico Collins?
Obviously, losing Nico is significant. He's Houston's best receiver and gives Stroud a big, physical X receiver who can win at all three levels.
But I'm interested to see how Nick Caley restructures the receiver rotation rather than simply trying to have somebody "replace" Nico.
Kayshon Boutte makes the most sense to me as the X. He isn't Nico's 6-foot-4, 220-pound frame, but he plays bigger than his size and has consistently shown the ability to win contested balls. He also has experience playing X in New England, so Houston wouldn't necessarily be asking him to learn an entirely new role.
I'd particularly like to see Houston give him some opportunities outside in 3x1 formations. If Cincinnati leaves Boutte isolated backside in man coverage, give him a chance on a go ball, back-shoulder throw or slant. Those are situations where his ability to play through contact can help replace at least one element Houston loses without Nico.
That could allow Jared Wayne to take more of the Z snaps. Wayne played well in his opportunities against Buffalo and is another receiver Stroud seems to trust. Xavier Hutchinson can continue working as the bigger slot, while Jaylin Noel gives Houston another option when it spreads things out.
I've been beating the drum for more Noel because I like what he brings to the offense, particularly in two-minute situations where Houston spreads the field and lets Stroud operate. At the same time, it's pretty clear the Texans value Hutchinson's size and blocking when they're trying to maintain their heavier offensive identity.
There's room for both.
Houston could also mitigate the receiver losses by leaning even more into 12 and 13 personnel. If you're playing two or three tight ends, you're naturally taking receivers off the field anyway. That would allow Houston to continue building around something that actually worked against Buffalo: the run game.
I want Houston to test Cincinnati's run defense
Dexter Lawrence changes the conversation any time you're talking about running the football against Cincinnati.
I'm not particularly interested in repeatedly testing one of the best interior defensive linemen in football just to prove Houston can run between the tackles. I'd rather make him move and attack elsewhere.
Watching Tampa Bay's carries from Week 1, I thought there were opportunities to attack Cincinnati toward the edges and with cutbacks. Bucky Irving ran eight times for 45 yards, and six of those carries were zone concepts. The problem for Tampa Bay wasn't necessarily that it couldn't run the football. The turnovers and resulting game script took the run game away.
That's an important distinction for Houston.
I'd continue mixing duo and inside zone because those are clearly part of this offense's identity, but this might be a good week to incorporate more mid/wide zone, pin-and-pull and some of the counter/power concepts Houston has been adding.
Wyatt Teller starting at right guard could help with the latter. Pulling has always been one of his strengths, and this will be his first real opportunity to show where he is after spending the offseason learning a new technique and system.
He's getting a hell of a test.
With Ingram out, Teller steps into the lineup against an interior that includes Lawrence and Jonathan Allen. Evan Brown will also have his hands full at center. I'm curious to see whether Houston can use movement and scheme to avoid simply allowing Cincinnati's interior defenders to tee off downhill.
The other reason I want to establish the run is what it could eventually create for Stroud.
From what I saw of Cincinnati against Tampa Bay, there was a good amount of single-high and man coverage. There were instances where motion made the coverage declaration pretty obvious, with a defender traveling across the formation.
That's very different from some of the soft two-high structures Stroud has seen so much of over the last year.
If Houston runs the football well enough to keep Cincinnati in Cover 1 and other single-high looks, I think there will be opportunities for Stroud. Motion can help identify man coverage, and Caley can use some of the insert motions, play action and releases off run action that we've already seen to manufacture leverage for a receiving corps missing its No. 1 option.
I'd rather make Cincinnati prove it can stop that approach before turning this into a game where Stroud has to drop back 40-plus times without Nico.
Protect the football
If there's one thing from Cincinnati's opener that should have Houston's attention, it's the takeaways.
The Bengals forced four turnovers against Tampa Bay, including multiple Baker Mayfield fumbles, and consistently gave their offense short fields. DeMeco Ryans specifically highlighted how well Cincinnati attacked the football and turned those takeaways into complementary football.
That matters after Stroud fumbled twice against Buffalo.
I didn't put the final fumble entirely on Stroud given the situation and immediate pressure, but the first one is something he has to clean up. Cincinnati saw it too. You can be pretty confident defenders are going to attack the football whenever he leaves the pocket.
This doesn't mean Stroud should suddenly become overly conservative. One of the things I liked against Buffalo was his willingness to use his legs when the defense gave him space. He just has to finish those plays with the football.
More broadly, I don't think this is a game where Houston needs to chase explosives or force anything offensively. If Cincinnati wants to play man and give you a favorable matchup, take the shot. Otherwise, stay patient, run the football and let Stroud distribute it to whoever the coverage dictates.
That's generally when I think he's at his best anyway.
Make Burrow be patient, but be ready to adjust
Defensively, I'd start by seeing if Houston can affect Burrow with four. If Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter can create pressure without the Texans having to send extra rushers, that gives you more bodies in coverage against Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and makes Burrow work his way down the field.
That doesn't mean I'd hide the blitz entirely, though. In fact, I'd like to show some pressure looks early, even if Houston ultimately drops out of them. Mug a linebacker in an A-gap, walk Jalen Pitre toward the line or give Cincinnati some other indication that a fifth rusher could be coming. At the very least, put it in the back of their minds and make the protection account for the possibility.
Burrow has generally been very good against the blitz throughout his career, which is part of why I wouldn't want to live on it. He can diagnose pressure, speed up his process and get the ball to Chase or Higgins before the rush ever has a chance to matter.
DeMeco talked this week about that exact challenge and also pointed out that Burrow is athletic enough to escape the pocket and extend plays when necessary.
But Tampa Bay did have some success pressuring him last week, so I'd at least make Cincinnati prove it has the answers against Houston too.
The bigger thing for me is being willing to adjust quickly if the four-man rush isn't getting there. That's where I thought Houston was too stubborn against Buffalo. The initial plan made sense, but once the Bills consistently gave Josh Allen enough protection to let routes develop downfield, I wanted to see DeMeco change the equation more than he did.
I don't want to see the same thing happen against Burrow.
Start by trusting the front four and playing coverage behind it. Show some pressure looks early. If Anderson, Hunter and the interior are getting home, great. Keep making Burrow operate against seven defenders in coverage. But if he's sitting comfortably in the pocket and Cincinnati is protecting well, don't wait until late in the game to change the picture. Mix in blitzes, simulated pressures and different presentations to make Burrow and the protection work.
Regardless of how Houston generates pressure, the biggest priority is limiting explosives to Chase and Higgins.
Burrow acknowledged the challenge himself this week when talking about Houston's secondary. He specifically mentioned the ball skills of Houston's corners and safeties and the need to be smart about when Cincinnati puts up 50/50 balls. He also made it clear that doesn't mean they're going to stop taking their shots.
They're coming.
That's where Derek Stingley Jr. versus Chase becomes one of the best individual matchups in the game. The former LSU teammates didn't have a target between them in their previous NFL matchup, and I'm curious whether Houston approaches it similarly this time.
The encouraging part is that this secondary is built to challenge those throws. Stingley and Kamari Lassiter can play tight coverage and Calen Bullock has range on the back end.
The concern after Buffalo is making sure everybody is seeing the same thing. There were too many plays in Week 1 where Houston appeared to have coverage leverage or help issues on the back end. Against Allen and Kincaid, those mistakes turned into explosives. Against Burrow, Chase and Higgins, the result could be the same.
While I'd start by making Burrow be patient, I also don't want Houston to simply rush four and play the same coverage all afternoon.
That was one of my biggest complaints against Buffalo.
Chase Brown can't become the forgotten piece
With Burrow, Chase and Higgins, it's easy for Chase Brown to become almost an afterthought when discussing Cincinnati.
He shouldn't.
DeMeco called him one of the most explosive backs he's watched and specifically mentioned what he can do both as a runner and receiver.
That receiving ability is what catches my attention after Buffalo. Houston has to be disciplined about how it handles backs and tight ends underneath if the plan is to devote resources to preventing Chase and Higgins from winning downfield.
Mike Gesicki is part of that conversation too, although I wouldn't automatically take what Kincaid did last week and project it onto him.
A lot of Kincaid's damage came from Buffalo's heavier personnel packages, where he was functioning as an in-line Y and creating matchup problems off play action. Gesicki is used much more like a big receiver. When he's on the field, Cincinnati can essentially spread Houston out and use him as another receiving option inside.
That's a different problem.
Houston needs to know where he is, but I'm more concerned with the entire structure: Burrow getting the ball out quickly to Chase, Higgins, Brown and Gesicki before the pass rush can matter.
That's why changing the picture while still being able to rush four is so important.
This could come down to small margins again
I don't expect this to be an easy game, especially with Houston missing Nico, Ingram, To'oTo'o and Clowney.
But I also don't think the Texans need to completely reinvent themselves because of those injuries.
Run the football. Don't repeatedly challenge Lawrence just because he's standing in the middle of the defense. Use motion and play action to attack Cincinnati's man tendencies. Give Boutte opportunities to win outside. Let Stroud read the coverage rather than feeling like he has to manufacture Nico's production with somebody else.
Defensively, I'd make Burrow prove he's willing to live on underneath completions. Keep Chase and Higgins from deciding the game with explosives, trust the front four initially and mix in enough simulated pressure and blitz looks that Cincinnati can't settle into the same protection answers Buffalo found last week.
And don't overlook special teams.
This feels like the type of game where field position and one possession could matter quite a bit. Ka'imi Fairbairn showed his range again last week, while Cincinnati has Evan McPherson on the other side. If both defenses do their jobs, a 50-plus-yard field goal late could end up being pretty important.
More than anything, Houston needs to avoid letting one mistake turn into several. Tampa Bay actually found some things that worked against Cincinnati in Week 1, particularly on the ground, but turnovers changed the game script before it could really lean into them.
The Texans don't need to force this one.
After the loss to Buffalo, getting to 1-1 is what matters. Houston showed enough offensively in Week 1 that I'm interested to see whether that improvement carries over even without its best receiver, and this defense has an immediate opportunity to look much more like the group we expected entering the season.
Protect the football, make Burrow earn his way down the field and find a way to win the damn game.
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