Texans vs. Colts Preview: A Matchup Houston Needs to Take Advantage Of
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The Houston Texans are 0-2, and after the way last week went against Cincinnati, I’m not interested in pretending there aren’t legitimate concerns with this team. The offensive line, particularly on the interior, remains my biggest long-term concern. I still have questions about Nick Caley’s game planning and whether this offense is making things more complicated than it needs to be. Houston is also trying to figure out what its receiving corps looks like without Nico Collins, while penalties, self-inflicted mistakes and a lack of takeaways have contributed to the slow start.
At the same time, I think you can acknowledge all of that and still look at this matchup against Indianapolis and say this is a game Houston should be able to play well in. If the Texans are still the team we thought they could be entering this season, this is an opportunity to start showing it.
That doesn’t mean Indianapolis should be overlooked. The Colts have enough offensively to cause problems, Jonathan Taylor has tortured Houston throughout his career, and Shane Steichen is a good offensive coach who will have a plan for this defense. But when you start digging into the actual matchups, there are quite a few things that should favor Houston.
The Texans Have to Start Faster
Maybe the strangest stat entering this game is how consistently slow Houston has started seasons under DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud. According to NFL Research, the Texans are 3-8 with a minus-three turnover differential during Weeks 1-3 since 2023. From Weeks 4-18 over that same span, Houston is 29-13 with a plus-38 turnover differential.
That fits what we have watched through two games this season. Houston is 0-2 and minus-two in turnover differential, and the defense has had several opportunities to create takeaways without actually finishing those plays. At some point that needs to change, and this feels like a matchup where Houston should have opportunities to finally make it happen.
Stop Jonathan Taylor and Make Daniel Jones Beat You
Everything defensively starts with Jonathan Taylor. He already has two rushing touchdowns in each of Indianapolis’ first two games, and according to NFL Research, another two-touchdown performance would make him only the fourth player in NFL history to begin a season with at least two rushing touchdowns in each of his first three games.
Texans fans certainly don’t need to be reminded what Taylor has done against Houston. He has 1,075 career rushing yards and 10 scrimmage touchdowns against the Texans, and those 1,075 rushing yards are more than 200 above his total against any other opponent.
There is some important context to that number, though. A good portion of Taylor's damage against Houston came before DeMeco Ryans took over, and the Texans have had considerably more success containing him with this current defensive regime. That doesn't make Taylor any less dangerous, but his career numbers against the Texans aren't necessarily representative of the matchup Houston has defensively today.
That’s where I think this matchup gets interesting. Houston’s run defense has been one of its strengths through two games, and Indianapolis has built much of its offense around Taylor. That gives the Texans a pretty straightforward objective: load the box when necessary, control Taylor and force Indianapolis to become more dependent on Daniel Jones.
Alec Pierce being out makes that approach even more appealing. Pierce gave Indianapolis a legitimate vertical threat, and while Laquon Treadwell caught a 48-yard pass against Kansas City after Pierce went down, the Colts don’t have an obvious replacement for what Pierce provides.
One name to watch is Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who was elevated from the practice squad for Sunday. At 6-foot-2 and 211 pounds, I wouldn't be surprised if Indianapolis uses him to try to fill at least some of Pierce's outside role from a body type and play-style standpoint. The Colts also added Darius Slayton this week, who has familiarity with Jones from their time together with the Giants and brings another vertical element, but he just arrived this week.
The Colts still have weapons. Keenan Allen can make plays, Tyler Warren is a matchup problem who can be moved around the formation, and Steichen will manufacture touches and favorable looks for his best players. But without Pierce, I would challenge Indianapolis to consistently win outside.
Houston can play its aggressive single-high structures, bring a safety down when necessary and make Jones prove he can beat Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter and this secondary.
Houston's Pass Rush Has an Opportunity
Another matchup I really like for Houston is its defensive front against the Indianapolis offensive line. The Colts have allowed pressure on roughly 40 percent of their quarterback dropbacks through two games, and while there is always context behind pressure numbers, that rate stands out considering Baltimore and Kansas City aren't necessarily built around dominant edge-rushing tandems. Some of those pressures could be the result of blitzes, game flow or obvious passing situations, but either way, I think it bodes well for Houston.
This could also be the most favorable individual tackle matchup Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter have seen so far. They opened the season against Buffalo's Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, then faced Orlando Brown Jr. and Amarius Mims against Cincinnati. Mims in particular held up extremely well against Houston's edge rushers, while Anderson and Hunter were able to have much more success attacking Brown. Indianapolis now has Bernhard Raimann at left tackle and Jalen Travis at right tackle.
There's an interesting Texans connection here, too. Indianapolis' previous longtime right tackle Braden Smith is now in Houston after signing with the Texans this offseason, although he's currently on injured reserve. Texans fans have seen Smith hold up well against Houston's defensive front in previous Colts matchups, and Indianapolis no longer has that established presence on the right side.
That doesn't mean Anderson and Hunter are automatically going to dominate Raimann and Travis, but on paper this looks like their best opportunity yet to consistently win off the edge. If Houston can control Jonathan Taylor on early downs and force Indianapolis into obvious passing situations, the Texans should be able to let Anderson and Hunter attack without having to manufacture pressure with extra rushers.
Daniel Jones is athletic enough to escape and create with his legs, so Houston can't recklessly rush past him and give him easy escape lanes. But if the Colts have already struggled to consistently protect Jones, this feels like a matchup where Houston's defensive front should have opportunities to create havoc.
That could also finally help turn some of Houston's near-turnovers into actual takeaways. The Texans haven't forced one yet despite having several legitimate opportunities through two games. I'm not going to guarantee that suddenly changes Sunday, but pressure from Anderson and Hunter could create exactly the type of strip sacks, hurried throws and turnover opportunities that have been missing so far.
The Explosive Passes Are Still the Concern
For as much criticism as the Texans defense has received, there is a really strange statistical profile developing through two weeks. According to Next Gen Stats, Houston has allowed a 36.8 percent passing success rate, second-lowest in the NFL, yet its 26.5 percent explosive pass rate allowed on passes of at least 15 yards is the highest in football. Opponents have also completed 69.6 percent of their throws traveling at least 10 yards downfield.
That matches what I think we've seen. This defense hasn't consistently been getting picked apart underneath or allowing offenses to methodically march down the field. The problem is that when Houston does give up a successful passing play, it has too often been a big one.
That's something I've thought about going back to late last season. Against a defense that plays as much quarters as Houston does, with lockdown corners in Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter, I almost think the better way to attack it is to embrace a boom-or-bust approach and take your shots rather than consistently playing into its hands by trying to dink and dunk your way down the field.
There is obviously risk involved in playing that way. Holding the ball and attacking downfield gives Houston's pass rush more time to get home, while aggressive coverage can create turnover opportunities. We haven't seen nearly enough sacks or takeaways actually materialize through two games, but the opportunities have been there. On the other side of that equation, we've seen what happens when the offense wins: Houston has surrendered some huge completions.
That's what makes this particular matchup interesting. Houston's biggest weakness through two games lines up with something Indianapolis hasn't done particularly well. According to Next Gen Stats, Daniel Jones has completed eight of his 14 throws of at least 10 air yards, but those attempts represent the third-lowest downfield throw rate in the NFL and only one has resulted in an explosive play.
Now Indianapolis is also without Alec Pierce, easily its most dangerous vertical threat and a receiver who has hurt Houston with explosive plays in previous meetings. Laquon Treadwell showed against Kansas City that he can still make a play downfield, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine could potentially help fill some of Pierce's outside size and vertical role, and the recently added Darius Slayton has legitimate speed if he's ready to contribute. Tyler Warren also creates his own problems because of how Shane Steichen can move him around and manufacture favorable matchups.
Still, none of those options changes what Pierce's absence means for this matchup. If one of the best ways to attack Houston is challenging its aggressive coverage downfield and living with the boom-or-bust results, Indianapolis is entering the game without the receiver best equipped to do exactly that.
That doesn't mean the explosive-play issue has suddenly disappeared. If anything, I would still test Houston vertically until the Texans prove they can consistently stop it. But on paper, this feels like a matchup where the defense should have a chance to look more like the unit we expected: stop the run, prevent Indianapolis from consistently sustaining drives, force Jones into difficult passing situations and finally turn some of those pressure and turnover opportunities into actual negative plays.
Make Life Easier for C.J. Stroud
On the other side, this should be an opportunity for the Texans offense to finally find some balance. C.J. Stroud leads the NFL with 104 dropbacks and 93 pass attempts through two games, and only 10.8 percent of those attempts have been thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage, the second-lowest rate in the league.
That's where I want to see Caley make life easier for his quarterback. Throw a receiver screen. Get Jaylin Noel the ball in space. Use misdirection and manufacture touches.
Make the defense defend horizontally instead of asking Stroud to repeatedly drop back behind an offensive line that has struggled in pass protection and solve everything downfield.
The encouraging part is that Stroud is still creating explosive plays. According to Next Gen Stats, 22.1 percent of his throws beyond the line of scrimmage have produced explosive passes, the 10th-highest rate in football.
Now he gets an Indianapolis defense that has struggled badly through two games. The Colts have allowed an NFL-high 74 points, 1,029 total yards and 675 passing yards. Their 1,029 yards allowed are the second-most by any team through the first two games of a season in NFL history.
There is obvious context. Indianapolis opened against Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes, and we're dealing with a two-game sample. I'm not going to pretend those numbers tell us everything about what this defense will be over an entire season.
But at some point, allowing more than 500 yards per game is allowing more than 500 yards per game. Houston needs to take advantage of it.
Indianapolis' Man Coverage Creates an Interesting Test
One of the biggest things I'll be watching is how Indianapolis chooses to defend Houston without Nico Collins. The Colts have played man coverage on 42 percent of their defensive snaps, the third-highest rate in the NFL, and they've allowed 9.5 yards per play when playing man, fifth-most in the league.
Next Gen Stats also notes that Colts defenders with multiple man-coverage targets have collectively allowed a 66.7 percent completion rate and 10.3 yards per target. On paper, that looks like a major opportunity for Houston.
There's another side to it, though. Stroud is completing only 52.6 percent of his passes for 5.8 yards per attempt against man coverage this season, both career lows, although both of his touchdown passes have come against man. Obviously, Nico's absence is part of the context there, but it brings us right back to Houston's receivers and whether somebody can consistently win.
I still think Kayshon Boutte should be getting more opportunities as the backside X.
That's where he has experience, including in New England, and it gives Stroud somebody he can isolate on vertical routes and slants and simply give opportunities to make plays.
I'd also like to see Noel get more opportunities outside. Let him use his speed vertically and on intermediate routes, while Xavier Hutchinson can work more from the big-slot role where his skill set makes sense.
Most importantly, Caley has to help these guys. If Indianapolis wants to play man coverage, where are the mesh concepts? Where are the natural picks and rubs? Where are the crossers, stacks and motions that create free releases?
You don't have Nico Collins right now, so you can't simply line up and expect the remaining receivers to consistently beat NFL man coverage without assistance. Scheme somebody open.
Get the Running Game Back
This is also the week where Houston's running game needs to respond. The Colts rank in the bottom three in rush yards over expected per carry, rushing success rate, EPA per carry, yards before contact per carry and explosive runs allowed.
Again, they've faced Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker III, so context matters. But the matchup is still dramatically different from what Houston encountered against Cincinnati.
DeForest Buckner is absolutely a problem. He has given Houston trouble before, and I'm not dismissing him whatsoever. Grover Stewart also gives Indianapolis size inside. But this isn't the same type of interior matchup Houston just faced, where Cincinnati's defensive line overwhelmed the Texans across the board and essentially eliminated their ability to run between the tackles.
David Montgomery had six carries for 10 yards against Cincinnati after scoring three touchdowns in Week 1. This should be an opportunity to get him going again, but I don't want that to simply mean lining up and hammering duo into the middle repeatedly.
Use outside zone. Give the backs opportunities to cut runs back. Use motion and jet action. Make defenders move and force the defense to defend the entire width of the field.
One of my biggest frustrations against Cincinnati wasn't simply that Houston couldn't run the ball. It was that I didn't think they did enough schematically to attack away from Cincinnati's strength. This week should provide more options.
12 Personnel Makes More Sense This Week
I wasn't as bothered as some were by Houston moving toward 11 personnel against Cincinnati. Once it became obvious they couldn't run the football, spreading the defense out and throwing made sense. My problem was that Houston didn't then use those formations creatively enough to reopen the running game.
This week could be different. If Houston can establish the run, there should be more opportunity to live in 12 and occasionally 13 personnel, which also allows the Texans to reduce the burden on a depleted receiver room.
I'd especially like to see Marlin Klein involved. Houston can create formations that technically look like heavier personnel while using Klein almost like another receiver. Put him on the field with Dalton Schultz and force Indianapolis to decide how it wants to match the personnel.
This was supposed to be one of the benefits of having versatile tight ends and building a game-plan offense. This feels like a good week to actually take advantage of it.
Stroud Has Historically Played Well Against Indianapolis
There is also the simple fact that Stroud has been very good against this opponent. He is 5-1 in his career against Indianapolis and has won five consecutive meetings.
According to NFL Research, those five wins are tied for the most by any quarterback against a single opponent since 2023. His 1,612 passing yards against Indianapolis are the third-most by any quarterback against one opponent over that span, trailing only Joe Burrow against Baltimore and Jared Goff against Chicago.
That doesn't guarantee anything Sunday, and past games don't win the next one. We've already watched plenty of streaks around the NFL end over the past year. But we have seen Stroud be comfortable against this opponent, and Indianapolis' current defensive profile gives him opportunities to continue that success.
This Is a Game Houston Should Play Well In, but It Won't Answer Everything
That's ultimately where I land on this game. I feel good about the matchup without feeling like Houston has earned the right for anyone to be overly confident right now.
Houston's defensive strength is stopping the run, and Indianapolis' offense revolves around Jonathan Taylor. The Colts have had protection issues, and Houston has Anderson and Hunter coming off the edges. Indianapolis is also without its primary vertical threat in Pierce, while Houston has one of the league's most talented cornerback duos.
On the other side, Indianapolis has struggled against both the run and pass. Its man coverage has been vulnerable, and Houston should have opportunities to establish Montgomery, protect Stroud better and finally create some easier offense.
So yes, if the Texans are the team we thought they were entering the season, I think they should play well Sunday. But I'm also not going to let one good performance erase what happened against Cincinnati.
The bigger concern isn't whether Houston can move the ball against a struggling defense in September. My concern is what happens later when the Texans encounter another dominant interior defensive line in a playoff environment and have to run the football or protect Stroud without asking him to throw it 45 or 50 times.
Can the offensive line hold up? Can Caley adjust his scheme when Plan A isn't working?
Can Houston find different ways to run the football instead of repeatedly attacking an opponent's strength? Can DeMeco Ryans improve some of the situational decision-making that has frustrated me?
Those questions won't disappear with one win, but you have to start somewhere. The Texans are 0-2, and this is a divisional game against another 0-2 team. There is no reason to spend Sunday thinking about January before taking care of September.
Get the run game going, make life easier for Stroud, stop Taylor and make Jones beat this secondary. Let Anderson and Hunter attack when Indianapolis gets behind the sticks, and for once, finish some of those turnover opportunities that have been there through the first two weeks.
I'm not overlooking Indianapolis, and I'm definitely not declaring Houston fixed before it proves anything. But when I look at these two teams and how the matchups line up, this is an opportunity for the Texans to remind everyone why expectations were so high in the first place.
Take care of business, get to 1-2 and go from there.
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