Texans vs. Cowboys Preview: Houston’s Season Is on the Line in the Battle for Texas
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Note: Unless otherwise noted, advanced statistics and tracking data referenced throughout this preview are via NFL Pro and NFL Next Gen Stats.
The Houston Texans are 0-3, and there really isn't much room left for qualifiers. Sunday's matchup with the Dallas Cowboys is a must-win game.
Houston has dug itself out of early holes before, starting 0-2 in 2024 and 0-3 last season before recovering. But 0-4 is an entirely different level of desperation. Only one team since the 1970 NFL merger, the 1992 San Diego Chargers, has started 0-4 and still reached the playoffs. So while one game in early October doesn't mathematically decide a season, the Texans have reached the point where history says the margin for error is essentially gone.
The good news is I still believe this is a game Houston can and should win. I'm probably in the minority at this point in still believing this team has a chance to make a run and get itself back into the playoff picture, but that doesn't mean my larger concerns about the Texans have disappeared.
Even if Houston begins stacking wins, I still need to see significant improvement before I'm ready to view this team as the legitimate championship contender many of us expected entering the season. The offensive line, run game, receiving corps and, most importantly, the offensive scheme remain major concerns. Those same issues could easily reappear against better teams later in the season even if Houston starts beating some more manageable opponents.
But none of that matters unless the Texans beat Dallas first.
The Texans offense finally gets some help
For the first time in weeks, C.J. Stroud should have Nico Collins and Ed Ingram back in the lineup, and both returns matter. Collins' absence shouldn't excuse how poorly the offense has functioned without him, but pretending it hasn't mattered would be equally silly.
Since the start of last season, Stroud has completed 25 passes for 616 yards and six touchdowns when targeting Collins at least 10 yards downfield. He has more than twice as many completions and yards targeting Collins downfield as he does with any other receiver over that span.
Getting Ingram back should also help stabilize an offensive line that has been constantly shuffled. Houston's Week 1 starting offensive line combination has played only 36.3% of the offensive snaps together this season because Ingram missed the last two games.
Neither player magically fixes the offense, though. Ultimately, this still falls largely on Nick Caley, and the excuses are running out.
I've been heavily critical of Caley through three games because I haven't liked many of the answers we've seen schematically, the overall approach or his ability to adapt when things aren't working. Now he gets Collins and Ingram back against another lower-ranked defense that is especially depleted in the secondary. There is no excuse for this offense to once again look as dysfunctional as it has through three games. Caley needs to put together a plan that attacks Dallas' weaknesses, helps his offensive line and gives Stroud answers.
I understand the argument from those who already wanted Caley fired, but I don't think making that move three games into the season would have made much sense, especially when considering the realistic alternatives available in the middle of a season.
That doesn't mean I'm satisfied with what we've seen or that Caley deserves some extended grace period. He needs to improve significantly, and it needs to start now.
At this point, I'll take marginal improvement before demanding some overnight transformation into an elite offense. Show me better answers. Show me adjustments when the initial plan isn't working. Show me a more cohesive run and play-action game. Most importantly, show me an offense that isn't consistently making life more difficult on its quarterback and offensive line.
There is at least some precedent for improvement. Houston's offense had significant issues early last season before finding better answers as the year progressed, and injuries were part of the equation then as well, particularly at tight end. Collins and Ingram missing time has undoubtedly made Caley's job more difficult this season, too.
That's context, not an excuse. A coordinator's job is to build an offense around the players available to him, and Houston hasn't done that nearly well enough.
Now he's getting two important pieces back and another favorable defensive matchup. If Caley wants to begin quieting some of the completely justified criticism surrounding him, Sunday is where it has to start.
Dallas' depleted secondary has to be attacked
The Cowboys' defense is still trying to find itself under new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the secondary. Dallas has already used 12 different defensive backs this season, the most in the NFL, with injuries forcing the Cowboys to continue digging deeper into the position.
Dallas responded this week by trading for Steelers cornerback Joey Porter Jr., a move I really like for them long term. Porter is exactly the type of big, physical outside corner who can give Collins problems, something we saw when Houston played Pittsburgh in the playoffs last season.
The question isn't whether Porter can help Dallas. It's how much he can realistically help this week.
Porter is joining a new team, learning a new defense and potentially playing two games in five days with Dallas facing Tampa Bay on Thursday night. RJ Ochoa of Blogging the Boys brought up during our conversation that whether Porter plays, how much he plays and how effective he can immediately be are all legitimate questions.
If he does play, I wouldn't be surprised if Dallas simplifies his responsibilities. Let him use his size and physicality in man coverage against Collins, or play Cover 2 to Collins' side and give Porter help over the top. That's much easier than asking a player who just arrived to immediately execute the entirety of Parker's defense.
The Cowboys also have an interesting chess piece in rookie Caleb Downs, who has already played at a high level from multiple alignments. If I'm Parker, I'm using Downs around the box and at big nickel as much as possible against Houston. But Dallas only has one Caleb Downs, and using him closer to the line of scrimmage means he can't simultaneously solve problems on the back end.
That's where Houston needs to force Dallas into difficult decisions.
Nick Caley has to attack what Dallas is giving him
Perhaps the most fascinating statistical matchup in this game involves Houston's run game. After we spent much of last season asking for more gap concepts, the Texans have completely flipped their identity.
Houston has used gap-scheme concepts on a league-high 37.9% of its carries this season after using them on only 9.9% last season. Meanwhile, zone runs have fallen from 12 attempts in Week 1 to seven in Week 2 and just four in Week 3.
And guess what Dallas has struggled against? Zone.
The Cowboys are allowing a league-high 5.8 yards per carry against zone-blocking concepts. That doesn't mean Houston should mindlessly call outside zone every play, especially considering the Texans' own early numbers on zone concepts have been poor.
It's also a relatively small sample.
But this is exactly where I need to see Caley demonstrate adaptability. Mix the run game. Get defenders moving laterally. Use more inside zone, mid-zone and wide-zone concepts. Create cutback opportunities and build complementary play action off those looks instead of repeatedly asking the offensive line to displace defenders straight ahead.
I'd also still like to see Jawhar Jordan elevated and given opportunities in the outside-zone game, but it doesn't appear to be the case.
With Collins back, I wouldn't want to live in single-high structures if I'm Parker just to get another defender into the box. I'd rather play more two-high, protect my depleted secondary and challenge Houston to consistently run the football against lighter boxes, something teams have had success doing against the Texans this season. If Houston finally starts winning consistently on the ground, Dallas can then mix in some run pressures from those two-high structures.
The Texans have to make Dallas adjust to them for once.
Houston also has to protect Stroud
The other part of this matchup is obvious. Stroud has been under too much pressure, and the results when that pressure arrives have been ugly.
He's taken 10 sacks on 43 pressures this season, and all 10 have come when defenses rushed four or fewer players. That's especially concerning because Dallas hasn't been particularly effective creating pressure without blitzing.
Over the last two games, the Cowboys have blitzed on only 22.7% of opposing dropbacks. When they don't blitz, they've generated pressure on just 25.4% of dropbacks and haven't recorded a sack.
Dallas sophomore Donovan Ezeiruaku has been the exception, producing a team-high 10 pressures, twice as many as any other Cowboys defender. He projects to see plenty of Aireontae Ersery, who has quietly been one of Houston's brighter spots in pass protection this season. Rashan Gary gives Dallas another established threat off the edge, although by most accounts he has been somewhat underwhelming through his first three games with the Cowboys.
From a matchup standpoint, I actually prefer this style of Dallas edge rusher against Houston's tackles. Gary and Ezeiruaku are bigger, more powerful edge defenders, and I'd rather see Houston deal with that profile than some of the explosive speed rushers who have given the tackles problems by threatening them vertically and winning around the corner. That doesn't make this an easy assignment, especially with Gary's ability to convert speed to power, but I think the matchup is more manageable than some Houston has struggled with.
If Houston cannot protect Stroud against this front, the concerns about the offensive line become even more alarming. Dallas hasn't consistently generated pressure with four, and behind that front is a secondary dealing with significant injuries. Houston should have opportunities if it can simply give Stroud enough time to operate.
Caley has to find them.
Dak Prescott vs. DeMeco Ryans, Round 3
The matchup I'm most excited to watch is Dallas' offense against Houston's defense. Despite the 0-3 record, I believe the Texans defense has been legitimately excellent through three games, and I think it's actually improving as some of the new pieces settle in.
There have certainly been mistakes. Buffalo presented some early-season communication issues, but that's also an excellent offense that had an entire offseason to prepare for Houston after the Texans embarrassed them last year. The Bills came out with new looks and did an excellent job scheming against Houston before the defense adjusted. Cincinnati had a handful of explosive plays, but Houston's special teams repeatedly put the defense in terrible situations, with the Bengals starting around midfield seemingly all game. Indianapolis created a couple of explosives as well, but the Texans still produced five sacks and three takeaways.
Through all of that, the defensive line has looked elite. Will Anderson Jr. has taken another step, Danielle Hunter continues to affect games as both a pass rusher and run defender, and Houston has consistently been able to create pressure without needing to manufacture it with blitzes. The secondary also appears to be settling in, with Reed Blankenship looking increasingly comfortable in the defense and playing well as he acclimates to his role.
Now comes a really fun test against Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and a talented Dallas offense.
Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer sees the challenge similarly.
“Clearly when you watch them play, they're not an 0-3 team. Their record says they're 0-3, but hard pressed to find a better defense than this front. Two corners are outstanding, safeties are really, really good. They're beat up right now at linebacker. They got a quarterback that's very, very talented, got Nico we expect to have him back this week. And of course they're a well coached team.”
Schottenheimer also correctly described Houston as an attacking front with the “San Francisco mindset,” which is fitting considering Prescott has some history against a DeMeco Ryans defense.
Prescott faced Ryans twice when DeMeco was San Francisco's defensive coordinator, both times in the playoffs. In the 2021 Wild Card round, Prescott completed 23 of 43 passes for 254 yards, one touchdown and one interception with a 69.3 passer rating. The following postseason, he went 23-of-37 for 206 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions with a 63.6 rating. Dallas lost both games, scoring 17 and 12 points.
Obviously, these are completely different teams and circumstances, but there is at least some notable history between Prescott and the defensive philosophy he'll see Sunday.
Prescott himself understands the challenge.
“Obviously starts with Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, their ability to attack and get after the passer,” Prescott said this week. “From that you've got great defensive backs, Stingley and Lassiter, Pitre able to jump things. Very, very good team. They're a good defense, they've been a good defense, best in the league I believe last year.”
Beyond the pass rush, one of my favorite matchups of the entire game is Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter against Lamb and Pickens. Both sides should feel confident in their guys. Dallas has two legitimate high-end receiving threats who can stress a defense in different ways, while Houston has two physical, talented outside corners who allow DeMeco to be aggressive with how he structures the rest of his defense.
Lamb and Pickens have aligned on opposite sides of the formation on 90% of their snaps this season, which should create plenty of opportunities for those individual battles. Stingley should naturally see Lamb quite a bit based on their usual alignments, while Lassiter's physicality makes the matchup with Pickens especially intriguing.
I don't think Houston needs to completely change who it is defensively because of Dallas' receivers. The strength of this defense is the combination of an elite defensive line and a secondary capable of holding up long enough for that front to get home. If Anderson, Hunter and company can consistently affect Prescott with four, it allows Houston to devote bodies to Lamb and Pickens without exposing itself elsewhere.
That's ultimately why I feel so good about this defense despite the team's record. There have been communication mistakes, explosives and stretches that need to be cleaned up, but I don't see a unit surviving on turnovers or unsustainable situational football. The foundation looks legitimate: an elite defensive line, two high-end outside corners, Pitre's versatility and a safety group that appears to be improving as Blankenship gets more comfortable.
Dallas is talented enough to test all of it. That's what makes this matchup so exciting.
Will Anderson Jr. could wreck this game
Everything Houston does defensively starts up front. The Texans have rushed four on 75.2% of opponent dropbacks, sixth most in the NFL, and their average time to pressure on those plays is an NFL-best 2.48 seconds. Even more impressive, Houston already has eight sacks from four-man rushes, the most in football.
Will Anderson Jr. has been playing at another level. He leads Houston with 20 pressures, nine quick pressures, four sacks and six quarterback hits. Danielle Hunter has 11 pressures despite being chipped or double-teamed on 41.1% of his pass rushes.
Anderson's primary matchup could be particularly important. He has lined up on the left side of Houston's defensive front on 66% of his snaps, putting him across from Dallas right tackle Terence Steele. Anderson leads the NFL with 17 pressures and eight quick pressures on one-on-one pass rushes.
Jadeveon Clowney returning gives Houston another important piece in that rotation after the defensive line lost Mario Edwards Jr. for the season. The Texans are thinner inside without Edwards, but I still feel good about this group for this matchup.
Houston's formula should remain the same: affect Prescott with four and keep seven defenders available to deal with Dallas' weapons.
Linebacker is the concern
The biggest concern on Houston's defense is linebacker, where Azeez Al-Shaair being out is significant. Jake Hansen is expected to handle the middle linebacker role with rookie Wade Woodaz stepping in at weakside linebacker.
Woodaz had some rough moments against Indianapolis, and Shane Steichen did a good job attacking him. But that experience could ultimately benefit him, and this time he gets a full week to prepare knowing he's likely to have a major role.
Woodaz absolutely has the athletic ability to play at this level. Now we get to see how quickly he can process what happened against Indianapolis, clean up the mistakes and play faster with another week of preparation from Ryans and his defensive staff.
Dallas will undoubtedly test him.
Don't overlook what Dallas has been through
There's another part of this matchup that deserves attention: the Cowboys' schedule.
As RJ pointed out during our conversation, he viewed Dallas' opening five games as perhaps the most difficult stretch of its season before it even began. The Cowboys just traveled to Brazil, now come back for another road game in Houston and then have to turn around and play Tampa Bay on Thursday night.
That's a brutal condensed stretch, and it could influence how Dallas handles some of its injured players Sunday. Do you rush someone back to play an AFC opponent when you have a short turnaround before an NFC game? How many snaps can Porter realistically handle after arriving during the week? How aggressively do you manage an already battered secondary?
Houston needs to make those questions matter.
Two Teams With Some Familiar Problems
For teams built very differently, there are some interesting similarities between Houston and Dallas entering this game. Both have been extremely lopsided so far, which is also consistent with their identities in recent years. The Cowboys have generally been able to lean on their offense while questioning whether their defense is good enough, while the Texans have increasingly become the inverse: an excellent defense repeatedly waiting for the offense to hold up its end of the bargain.
The records aren't identical, but neither start is remotely what these teams expected.
Houston is 0-3 with a season that already feels like it's hanging in the balance, while Dallas is 1-2 and dealing with plenty of its own early-season frustration.
Even the way they arrived here last week was strangely similar. Both teams suffered close losses that included special teams mistakes and questionable late-game decision-making from their head coaches. Houston had the kickoff issues and some puzzling clock management from DeMeco Ryans against Indianapolis, while Dallas had its own special teams problems and end-of-game management questions surrounding Brian Schottenheimer against Baltimore.
In both cases, the frustration goes beyond one loss because some of these issues feel familiar. Texans fans are wondering why an offense paired with this defense continues to struggle, while Cowboys fans are once again wondering whether a high-powered offense can overcome the deficiencies elsewhere.
That's part of what makes Sunday so interesting. These are two talented teams off to disappointing starts, with strengths and weaknesses that almost mirror each other. Dallas wants its defense to finally complement its offense. Houston is desperate for its offense to do the same for its defense.
Whichever struggling side of that equation shows up first could decide the game.
The Texans Have to Win This Game
I understand why confidence in the Texans has cratered. They are 0-3, the offense has been awful and many of the concerns we had entering the season haven't disappeared. They've become more pronounced.
Even if Houston beats Dallas, I'm not suddenly declaring everything fixed. The bigger question about this team's ceiling remains unanswered. Can this offensive line hold up against elite interior defensive fronts? Can the Texans consistently run the football? Can receivers outside of Collins create enough separation? Can Caley adapt his offense to his personnel and attack what defenses are giving him?
Those questions matter if we're talking about Houston eventually competing with the best teams in the AFC. Right now, though, the Texans simply need a win.
They get Collins back. They get Ingram back. They're playing at home against a Dallas secondary that has been ravaged by injuries. Their defensive line has been dominant, and their corners present a difficult matchup for Dallas' receivers. The Cowboys are also coming off an international trip with another game waiting for them four days later.
There are enough matchup advantages here that I still believe Houston should win this football game. Now Caley and the offense have to stop wasting the defense's performances.
There's also a fitting bit of history surrounding this matchup. The first game in Texans franchise history came at home against Dallas, a 19-10 Houston victory. Now, 8,792 days later, the Texans have an opportunity to earn the 100th home victory in franchise history against the same opponent.
More importantly, they have an opportunity to keep their season alive.
At 1-3, I can still see a path. At 0-4, we're no longer talking about a difficult start.
We're talking about needing to make NFL history.
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