Texans vs. Chargers Preview: The Season Is on the Line Again
The Texans come out of the bye at 2–5, and here we are again. The season is on the line. A loss would leave Houston at 2–6 with Cleveland and a short turnaround against Indianapolis next. There’s no point in mapping out a playoff run if you can’t win this one. Houston kicks off against the Chargers at 3:05 p.m. CT Sunday at SoFi Stadium.
Los Angeles is 0–7, but Seattle beat them by seven and Denver beat them by six. The Rams pulled away last week, and the Chargers were still in it before halftime. DeMeco Ryans brought up how close these games have been. I’m with him. If you let the Chargers hang around, their front can wreck a drive and Justin Herbert can still make a throw that changes the game. Watch Ryans on the Chargers’ close games. Chargers results.
Make Herbert solve the coverage after the snap
Herbert has five touchdown passes and 10 interceptions. When I went through the picks on the livestream, I put nine on Herbert and gave him a pass on the one that bounced off a receiver. That’s my film judgment. The tracking split tells a related story: of his nine interceptions on passes traveling at least 10 air yards, seven came without pressure, per Next Gen Stats. He’s thrown that far downfield on 34.4% of his attempts and generated minus-9 EPA on those throws. Houston can get a takeaway even when the rush doesn’t get home. Herbert’s NFL splits. NFL Pro matchup insights.
My working theory is that Mike McDaniel is asking Herbert to play through more pure progressions, where the concept supplies an ordered series of reads. That’s a film read, and we don’t have the playbook or his instructions on every pick. What stands out is how often Herbert throws into occupied windows. Los Angeles uses motion on 71.3% of plays and is still moving somebody at the snap on 57.3%, but it averages just 4.4 yards per play with motion. Motion can give the quarterback a clue about the defense. Houston can give him a clue before the snap and change the answer once he starts the progression. My note on Herbert’s progressions. Herbert on facing Houston’s defense.
The Jacksonville Cover 2 invert clip is the kind of changeup I want. Houston can present two high, play quarters from it one snap, rotate to Cover 3 the next, and then invert the usual Cover 2 assignments so a corner sinks into a deep half and a safety comes down underneath. A throw Herbert expects to clear the underneath defender can wind up right where that safety is arriving. Mix it in. If the same rotation shows up every time, McDaniel can build an answer for it. Ryans has studied McDaniel before, including the 20–12 win over Miami in 2024 when Houston picked off Tua Tagovailoa three times. The current Chargers film still has to drive the plan. Watch the Cover 2 invert against Jacksonville. Ryans on preparing for McDaniel.
Pitre can help Houston keep seven in coverage
Houston blitzed on 39.2% of opponent dropbacks in Weeks 6 and 7, up from 20.8% in Weeks 1–4, according to Next Gen Stats. The extra bodies helped Houston play the run more aggressively, but there’s a tradeoff if you have to take one out of coverage to do it. Jalen Pitre practiced in full all week and carries no game designation. Reed Blankenship is out. With Pitre back in the mix, I want to see whether Houston can defend the run from its 4–2–5 without declaring an extra box defender every time. That takes sound fits and tackling. If the first guy misses and two more have to clean it up, McDaniel’s motion and misdirection can turn a short play into a first down. Official injury report.
Will Anderson Jr. has 41 pressures, including 19 within 2.5 seconds, per Next Gen Stats. The Chargers have already used nine offensive line combinations. Joe Alt returned at left tackle against the Rams, with Travis Burke moving to the right. Alt coming back matters, but Anderson and Danielle Hunter give Houston a chance to make the tackles work on both edges without sending five. Keep the rush lanes intact, too. Herbert can climb or escape and punish an otherwise good coverage snap. On the Chargers’ side, McDaniel emphasized the physical challenge of facing both rushers, and Alt singled out Anderson’s get-off and power and Hunter’s ability to get blockers off balance. Chargers coaches and players on the matchup.
The Chargers’ front is the hard part for Houston’s offense
Chris O’Leary’s defense is giving up 20 points per game and has allowed touchdowns on fewer than half of opponents’ red-zone trips. Teair Tart can make the interior uncomfortable. Khalil Mack and rookie Akheem Mesidor give the tackles power to deal with, while Tuli Tuipulotu can change the protection picture by moving inside. I’d rather see Aireontae Ersery and Trent Brown deal with power than spend all afternoon racing speed around the corner, but that doesn’t make this a soft matchup. Tuipulotu moving over a guard or center can force the line to pass off a game while Mack wins outside. Ryans highlighted the front, and Nick Caley called the defense aggressive. Ryans on the defensive front. Caley on the Chargers’ defense.
The blitz numbers explain what Caley is talking about. Los Angeles sends extra rushers on 31.6% of dropbacks, slightly below league average, but generates pressure on 48.5% of those blitzes. Daiyan Henley leads its off-ball rushers with seven pressures. Stroud has a 53.5% success rate against the blitz, second among qualified passers in the NFL Pro preview. That advantage depends on Stroud, the line and the eligible receivers seeing the same thing. If Henley comes, know which route replaces him. If he shows and drops, have an answer behind or away from him. Extra tight ends aren’t an automatic fix: the Chargers have pressured quarterbacks on 46.4% of dropbacks against sets with at least two tight ends.
There’s a better opening against zone. Los Angeles has allowed 7.2 yards per play in zone and 4.7 in man, per Next Gen Stats. With Derwin James on injured reserve, I’d spread the formation, make the underneath defenders declare their spacing and get Stroud quick answers that can turn into yards after the catch. Use Nico Collins on in-breakers and let Tank Dell threaten space across the formation as his workload grows. Marvin Harrison Jr. can still win outside. All four of his Houston catches entering this game came from wide alignments, even though he has run nearly a third of his routes from the slot. Use that flexibility to set up favorable releases. Keep the six-lineman package available for specific looks, including a pass off it if the defense starts leaning run. NFL Pro coverage and protection splits.
David Montgomery is out, so Woody Marks should carry the bulk of the work, with Dare Ogunbowale and waiver addition Emari Demercado as other options. I’d use the pass game to create friendlier boxes for Marks. Let him run when the numbers are there, and give Stroud an early-down outlet if Tart and the front are winning inside. The quickest way to let this defense dictate the afternoon is to put Houston in third-and-long over and over.
Win the field position game, then make the lead count
This feels like an old-school DeMeco Ryans game to me. Think Tennessee earlier this year: lean on the rush, make the quarterback hold the ball against changing pictures, tackle the first time and give the offense a short field. Special teams can help keep the pressure on by protecting the ball and making Los Angeles drive the length of the field. When Houston gets the short field, turn it into seven. This team has already let too many close games get to the last possession.
I want Caley to give Stroud a chance to get ahead early. Once you have a lead, Anderson and Hunter can attack more obvious passing downs and the secondary can keep changing the picture behind them. At 2–5, I’ll take a win that looks like that. Follow the game on Houston Stressans Gameday.
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