Texans vs. Giants Preview: Houston Needs to Keep Letting Stroud Dictate the Game
C.J. Stroud prepares to throw at Texans practice ahead of Week 7 vs. the Giants. Photo: Jordan McKendrick/Houston Texans.
The Texans have started giving us reasons to believe again. After opening 0–4, Houston has won consecutive games, the offense is playing with more confidence, and C.J. Stroud continues to perform at a high level. Marvin Harrison Jr. should have a larger role in his second game with the team, and Tank Dell is officially returning.
There are still concerns. Houston is thin at running back, Jalen Pitre’s absence changes how the defense matches personnel, and the Texans have allowed too many explosive plays. Reed Blankenship is also out, creating another adjustment in the secondary, although I don’t view his absence the same way as Pitre’s. There are things to clean up, but I believe this is a game Houston can and should win.
The Giants will present challenges. Their pressure packages will test Houston’s communication, and J.J. McCarthy showed against New Orleans that he can produce explosive plays even when a receiver appears covered. But the Texans have opportunities to dictate this matchup on both sides of the ball, and I expect the defense to continue improving as DeMeco Ryans builds on the changes of the last two weeks.
Unless otherwise noted, advanced statistics are from NFL Pro and Next Gen Stats through Week 6. Film observations and additional charting references come from my breakdowns posted throughout the week. Season passing totals and injury information include updates available October 24.
Stroud didn’t suddenly learn how to beat the blitz
One of the narratives coming out of Jacksonville was that Stroud had finally figured out how to recognize pressure and get the ball out. I think that misses a significant amount of context, starting with how well he had already performed against the blitz before that game.
Stroud entered Week 6 as the NFL’s least-blitzed quarterback at 22.1%. Against those blitzes, he ranked first in success rate and second in explosive play rate. Jacksonville then blitzed him on a season-high 37.1% of his dropbacks, substantially increasing the number of opportunities he had to demonstrate something he was already doing well.
He completed nine of 13 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown against the blitz.
Separately, his charted performance under pressure was 10 of 11 for 118 yards and two touchdowns. Those are different splits—blitzes don’t always create pressure, and pressure doesn’t require a blitz—but both illustrate how well he handled Jacksonville’s approach. My Jacksonville blitz breakdown
That increased blitz rate also helps explain his career-low 2.46-second average time to throw. Jacksonville was forcing immediate decisions, and Stroud recognized the looks, understood his answers and delivered. The ball coming out faster was partly a response to what the defense presented.
We saw similar examples against San Francisco last season and against Denver before he got hurt. For much of the rest of the year, opponents could play two-high, defend Houston’s struggling run game with lighter boxes and generate pressure with four. That changes the opportunities available to the quarterback, and it matters when evaluating why the offense looks different from one matchup to another. My analysis of that context
The biggest improvement is the offense recognizing the same thing together
Stroud deserves credit for his development. A second year with Caley should help, as should getting out of the huddle with enough time to identify the defense, communicate and adjust. Better offensive line play and continuity can contribute, too. But I think one of the biggest changes is the collective understanding between Stroud and his weapons.
Recognizing a blitz doesn’t accomplish much if the receiver doesn’t recognize that he needs to look for the football. Under Bobby Slowik, I had concerns about the protection rules and availability of immediate answers. Things improved under Caley last season, but there were still too many instances where Stroud appeared ready to throw hot and the intended receiver wasn’t ready for it. Schultz was often the exception.
This year, the receivers and tight ends appear more connected to the quarterback. They are identifying the same pressure, understanding how it affects the route and giving Stroud somewhere to go. That is a significant part of what has changed, and it gets lost when the entire conversation becomes about whether Stroud personally learned to recognize a blitz. My breakdown of the improvement
The Moreau touchdown against Jacksonville was a good example. Houston came out in 13 personnel, then motioned Marks out of the backfield. Schultz pointed out the blitz, Stroud acknowledged it, and the offense had an immediate answer for the touchdown. Caley used personnel to influence the defensive response and motion to exploit it, while the players recognized the opportunity together. Film example
Stroud enters Sunday third in the NFL with 1,714 passing yards, nine touchdowns, one interception and a 100.9 passer rating. His 25 completions of at least 20 yards are tied for the league lead. Since Collins returned in Week 4, he has averaged 306.7 passing yards per game with six touchdowns, one interception and a 116.6 rating. He has been playing well beyond the last two wins, and the offense is doing a better job of supporting that play. NFL passing leaderboard
New York will test Houston’s communication
The Giants like to blitz, and they can get creative with where the pressure originates. Since losing Brian Burns in Week 3, New York has blitzed on 56% of opposing dropbacks, second only to Minnesota over that span. Those blitzes have held opponents to 5.0 yards per attempt and an 11.5% explosive pass rate.
Since Week 4, the Giants have used defensive backs as pass rushers 37 times, the most in the league. Six different defensive backs have generated pressure during that stretch, with Andru Phillips producing five pressures, two sacks and four quarterback hits. Four of his pressures arrived in under 2.5 seconds.
Houston cannot focus exclusively on the defensive line and linebackers. The slot defender and safeties have to be included in the protection picture, and the receivers need to understand how their responsibilities change when those players come. This is exactly where the improved recognition throughout the offense needs to carry over.
I also view it as an opportunity. Through Week 6, Stroud averaged 8.3 yards per attempt against the blitz with a 23.7% explosive rate, third-highest in the NFL. New York can create problems, but Houston has demonstrated that it can punish this approach when the quarterback, protection and receiving options are connected.
The Giants are replacing their defensive communicator
Tremaine Edmunds’ absence matters beyond replacing a linebacker. He was New York’s primary green-dot defender, responsible for receiving the defensive call and communicating it to the rest of the unit. Earlier in the week, I pointed out that rookie Arvell Reese could potentially take over that responsibility. Subsequent reporting has pointed toward veteran Micah McFadden handling the role. My original observation
That change is worth testing in a defense that asks players to execute exotic pressure packages and late adjustments. It doesn’t guarantee confusion, especially with an experienced player like McFadden involved, but Houston should make the Giants repeatedly communicate and adjust.
Get lined up early, change formations and use motion. Mix in tempo when there is an advantage. With Holland and Newsome also missing from the secondary, New York will be operating with different combinations in several important spots. Houston should make those combinations handle as much information as possible before the snap.
Pass to open the run, and keep leaning into pace and space
I don’t want Houston to move away from what has helped the offense improve because it feels obligated to establish the run. Montgomery and Jawhar Jordan are unavailable, leaving Marks and Ogunbowale as the expected active backfield. Marks can handle meaningful work, but the personnel and recent production point toward spreading the field and letting Stroud dictate the game.
Throw on early downs, use the passing game to influence the box and take the rushing opportunities that follow. That can still produce a balanced offense. Houston has looked more effective when it makes the defense respond to its passing game instead of repeatedly asking an inconsistent rushing attack to create favorable situations.
Fisher’s absence also affects the heavier packages Houston used against Jacksonville. The Texans have alternatives if they want another blocker on the field, but I’m interested in whether his absence pushes them further toward spreading things out. With Collins, Harrison, Noel, Dell and the tight ends available, Caley has options to stress the defense horizontally and vertically.
Empty deserves a larger place in the plan
I posted the empty-formation numbers this week because I think they fit this particular matchup. Through six games, Houston’s offense produced a 44.1% success rate and plus-0.04 expected points added per play overall. On its 27 plays from empty, those figures improved to a 55.6% success rate and plus-0.22 EPA per play.
Against Jacksonville, Houston ran seven empty plays, producing a 57.1% success rate and 0.38 EPA per play. Stroud completed five of six passes with an average time to throw of 2.29 seconds, and the Texans used motion on five of those seven plays. It is a small sample, but the efficiency is encouraging. Full empty-formation breakdown
Motioning Marks out or aligning with five receiving options can spread the defense, help identify coverage and pressure intentions, and create immediate answers. It can also give Marks a receiving opportunity instead of repeatedly asking him to handle a difficult blitz pickup.
Empty doesn’t eliminate protection challenges. Stroud and the receivers still have to account for a potential free rusher, which brings us back to their shared recognition. Houston has shown more ability to make the defense pay when it sends someone the protection cannot block. Against this opponent, with this backfield situation, I think that is worth leaning into.
Harrison’s increased workload could matter more immediately than Dell’s return
Dell returning is a tremendous story, and it will be special to see him back on the field. He is confirmed to play after being activated Saturday and having his questionable designation removed. But I’m not expecting a massive immediate impact from someone who hasn’t played a regular-season game since December 2024. Houston can give him opportunities without asking him to immediately carry a large workload.
Harrison’s expanding role may be the more immediate factor. DeMeco said this week that he expects Harrison’s workload to increase, and Houston already showed encouraging results when Harrison, Collins and Noel shared the field against Jacksonville. In the 10 snaps I highlighted, Stroud went six of seven for 96 yards and a touchdown.
That is another small sample, but it gives Houston a reason to keep exploring the combination. I also liked Harrison’s work on in-breaking routes. NFL Pro charted four of his eight routes as in-breakers, with two catches for 28 yards on those concepts. Stroud leads the league through Week 6 with 819 passing yards targeting in-breaking routes, so there is an established area of strength to build around.
Noel has earned a meaningful role as well. He has caught all four of his deep targets for 155 yards and 10 of 12 targets from the slot for 178 yards. Dell’s return should add to the offense’s versatility, while Har
rison’s growing familiarity gives Caley another way to expand what Houston can do.
New York’s defensive injuries create opportunities
The Giants are without Holland, Newsome and Edmunds. They are getting Adebo back from injured reserve, although he remains questionable, and Nubin is also questionable. Getting a corner back helps, but it doesn’t replace everything New York is losing elsewhere.
Holland is a significant absence. Through Week 6, he allowed a 44.4% completion rate and only 4.2 yards per target, with five passes defensed. Houston needs to test the replacement combinations and make the secondary defend multiple threats while handling motion and changes in alignment.
That doesn’t mean Banks should be treated as an automatic favorable matchup. He has played better this season, allowing a 53.6% completion rate and recording eight passes defensed through six games. The Giants have also allowed only 190.2 passing yards per game, fifth-fewest through Week 6. There are competitive players here, but the defense is shorthanded, and Houston has enough receiving options to make those absences matter.
Marks can contribute, but there is still room to improve
I like Marks as a downhill runner, including in gap concepts. He has averaged 3.8 yards per carry with a 43.5% success rate and a 13% explosive rate on gap runs, outperforming Montgomery in those categories. He also offers more as a receiver than Houston has consistently accessed.
But going through his Jacksonville touches, I thought there was yardage left on the field. Some holes were identified late, some cutbacks were missed and a few tracks became too wide. The blocking wasn’t good on every rep, but the runner still has opportunities to help it.
His pass protection was mixed, although I continue to like his willingness, toughness and understanding of his assignments. Against New York, Houston should vary his responsibilities and create efficient work for him. Let the passing game influence the defensive structure, then give Marks opportunities to attack what becomes available. Marks film breakdown
McCarthy is dangerous, but Houston gets to prepare for him
McCarthy helped bring the Giants back into the game against New Orleans and showed legitimate arm talent. There were excellent throws outside the numbers, impressive velocity on deep outs and a quality deep post to Nabers after stepping up in the pocket. He deserves credit for those plays and for giving New York a chance.
I was less impressed with the consistency of his processing, overall accuracy and decision-making. He entered late against a defense protecting a lead, saw plenty of softer coverage and generally had time to operate. In the PFF charting I cited, he was pressured on only 21.7% of his dropbacks. Under pressure, he went one of three for 20 yards with an interception and took a sack. That is a tiny sample, but it provides context. My pressure observations
On film, there were hurried decisions against relatively static coverage, missed options and throws that gave defenders opportunities to intercept the ball. Some difficult completions worked out for New York, but Houston should have chances to change the outcome of similar decisions.
The Texans also get a full week to prepare for him. He won’t have the same benefit of arriving as a late change of pace against an opponent that prepared primarily for someone else. DeMeco can build the plan around his tendencies, change the picture after the snap and make him work through decisions. The home crowd can further complicate New York’s cadence and protection communication.
McCarthy brings volatility. He can hit a difficult throw or create a big scramble, but I want Houston to make the routine work difficult enough that those moments don’t sustain the entire offense.
Rush him with discipline
Anderson, Hunter and Rankins give Houston the personnel to make McCarthy uncomfortable. Through Week 6, Anderson led the NFL with 37 pressures, 7.5 sacks and 18 quick pressures. Hunter had 25 pressures despite receiving considerable extra attention, while Rankins led defensive tackles with 12 third-down pressures.
The Giants have uncertainty at right tackle, where Eluemunor and Mbow are questionable. Thomas has no game designation after dealing with a groin injury during the week, but Hunter still presents a difficult assignment on that side. Houston should have opportunities to affect the pocket without needing to send extra rushers every time.
The key is maintaining rush-lane integrity. McCarthy has averaged 9.7 yards per scramble since last season, the highest mark among quarterbacks with at least 15 attempts. He showed against New Orleans that he can exploit an opening up the middle, and the Texans cannot turn a successful rush into a free running lane.
Selective blitzes and simulated pressures can add uncertainty. Houston needs to make him feel pressure, keep him contained and finish the opportunities that follow.
I still expect this defense to get back on track
The Jacksonville score was frustrating, but I don’t view it as proof that the defensive changes under DeMeco aren’t working. Houston held Tennessee to three points the week before. The opponent matters—Tennessee’s offense is limited—but that was still an impressive performance.
Jacksonville presented a much better offense, and I believe the playing surface affected several snaps. It showed up in footing, transitions, pursuit and tackling. That doesn’t explain every coverage mistake, but it belongs in the evaluation rather than being dismissed when assessing how the defense played.
There were also encouraging elements in DeMeco’s approach. I highlighted the Cover 2 invert looks and a late presentation that showed Cover 0 before Houston rushed four and dropped both linebackers and Logan Hall. Those are the types of pictures that can make a quarterback hesitate, particularly one who showed issues identifying less complicated coverage against New Orleans.
DeMeco has had two games taking a more direct hand in the defense’s direction. I expect improvement as the calls, personnel and execution come together. The problems are real, but I still believe the talent and coaching give this group a path back.
Pitre’s absence changes the structure of Houston’s defense
Without Pitre, Houston leaned more on base 4–3 against Jacksonville’s heavier personnel, using Al-Shaair, To’oTo’o and Hansen together. I expect that to remain an option against New York’s 12- and 13-personnel packages. Pitre’s ability to cover, fit the run and play around the line of scrimmage normally allows Houston to handle different offensive looks without making as many substitutions.
Against three-receiver sets and on passing downs, I liked the adjustment of moving Lassiter inside and bringing Smith onto the outside. Smith was consistently sticky in coverage, with his biggest blemish coming on a chunk gain to Travis Hunter on a bender that he nearly broke up. He finished with a 70.5 overall PFF grade and a 69.7 coverage grade on 25 defensive snaps. The grades are another reference point, but the coverage itself was encouraging.
Lassiter also played well inside. His most noticeable mistake came against Washington’s third-and-short double move, when he aggressively anticipated the first-down route but nearly recovered to make the play. Especially considering the slick surface, I thought the combination showed enough to deserve more opportunities Sunday. My secondary film thread
NFL Pro’s personnel data shows how substantial the adjustment was. Houston’s big-nickel usage fell to 10.3% against Jacksonville after exceeding 70% in each of its first five games. That is why Pitre’s absence matters so much: DeMeco is replacing his responsibilities by changing how the defense matches personnel.
Blankenship has struggled, but the alternatives deserve the same scrutiny
Blankenship has earned criticism, particularly for his performance against Jacksonville. Going through his 33 snaps, I saw solid coverage mixed with coverage losses and missed tackles. PFF gave him a 30.4 overall grade, a 34.3 coverage grade and a 25.8 tackling grade. The surface affected certain plays, but that doesn’t explain away the entire performance or the concerns from earlier in the season.
I also think some of the reaction has gone too far, especially when it assumes replacing him automatically fixes the position. I’ve always liked Stewart and felt he was underrated, but after comparing their Jacksonville snaps, I didn’t see the drastic upgrade some seem to expect. Stewart had good reps alongside coverage and tackling issues, and he deserves some allowance for playing his first game after a lengthy absence.
The individual plays need to be evaluated fairly. Boerkircher made an exceptional catch against reasonably good coverage from Stewart; that wasn’t simply a defender getting beaten badly. On another touchdown, however, Stewart appeared to miss a switch that Lassiter was expecting. Those distinctions matter, and the evaluation should remain consistent regardless of whose name is on the jersey. My Blankenship–Stewart comparison
With Blankenship out, Stewart has an opportunity to settle in with another week of preparation. Ramsey could also receive more work after showing encouraging signs in seven defensive snaps against Jacksonville. Ramsey has primarily played in the slot and box this season, so I’m interested in how DeMeco uses him rather than assuming he steps directly into all of Blankenship’s responsibilities.
Houston has combinations to explore. Each still needs to communicate, tackle and finish more consistently.
Tight ends and contested deep balls are the biggest concerns
Likely is a difficult matchup, particularly with Houston adjusting its personnel inside. He has aligned in the slot on 76.8% of his routes, producing 252 receiving yards and four touchdowns from that alignment through Week 6.
Nabers can also move inside. He ran 41.3% of his routes from the slot against New Orleans, substantially above his usage through the first five weeks. That can stress the linebackers, safeties and communication between them. To’oTo’o’s return helps Houston’s physicality and run fits, but Jacksonville also showed areas where route traffic and late sorting can create openings.
The other concern is the contested ball. McCarthy will throw to receivers who aren’t obviously open, and Houston’s defenders have to expect the football, locate it and finish through the catch point. The Texans have allowed the highest explosive pass rate through Week 6, so this concern extends beyond a handful of frustrating highlights.
I expect New York to land some plays. But if Houston controls the conventional run game, creates negative plays and continues producing offensively, a few difficult catches shouldn’t be enough to decide the game. Keep those moments isolated and force the Giants to sustain drives through repeated execution.
Injury outlook
Houston: Montgomery, Pitre, Blankenship and Fisher are ruled out. Jawhar Jordan is unavailable, leaving Marks and Ogunbowale as the expected active running backs. Dell has been activated and is confirmed to return. Al-Shaair, To’oTo’o, Trent Brown, Ingram, Schultz, Brevin Jordan, Hall and Clowney have no game designation.
New York: Edmunds, Newsome, Holland and Theo Johnson are out. Adebo has been activated from injured reserve but remains questionable, along with Eluemunor, Mbow and Nubin. Thomas has no game designation after dealing with a groin injury during the week.
Houston can and should win this game
I’m encouraged by where the offense is headed, and I expect the defense to continue moving toward the level we know it can play. Stroud has been excellent, the offense is recognizing pressure more collectively, Harrison’s role is expanding and Dell gives Houston another option without needing to carry the passing game immediately.
The Giants have an aggressive defense, but they are missing important players and replacing their primary communicator. Houston should make them handle motion, spacing and pace while continuing to use the passing game to create favorable rushing opportunities.
McCarthy can make a difficult throw or create a big scramble, but the film also showed chances for a prepared defense to force mistakes. DeMeco gets to prepare for him at home with a front capable of changing the game. Houston needs to contain the quarterback, communicate through New York’s formations and finish the opportunities his aggressiveness creates.
There are enough advantages here that I believe the Texans should win. A third consecutive victory would send them into the bye at 3–4 with a much more encouraging outlook. Houston has started repairing the damage from its opening month; Sunday is another game it needs to take advantage of.
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