Game Preview: Houston Texans (4-1) at New England Patriots (1-4)

Creator: Michael Dwyer | Credit: AP

Date: Sunday October 13th, 2024

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA

Kickoff Time: 12PM CST

Historical Context and Narrative

The Texans are heading into a matchup that has traditionally been unfavorable, sitting 0-5 all-time in Foxborough. Yet, both teams have seen considerable changes from their previous encounters. With the Texans riding a strong start to the season and facing a Patriots squad led by rookie QB Drake Maye, the dynamics are entirely different from past contests.

Injury Report and Impact

• Houston Texans: Major absences like WR Nico Collins, CB Kamari Lassiter, and S Jimmie Ward could shift the dynamics on both sides of the ball, particularly affecting the passing game and secondary depth. With Collins out, expect a more varied attack from Stroud, utilizing wide receivers Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Xavier Hutchinson and tight ends Dalton Schultz and Cade Stover.

  
  

• New England Patriots: The absence of S Jabrill Peppers and the questionable status of key defensive players such as Kyle Duggar could leave the Patriots more vulnerable against the Texans’ passing attack, especially in intermediate and deep zones. Bell cow running back Rhamondre Stevenson is also expected to be out, taking away a key focal point of the Patriot's offense, and one they need to have be effective to prevent being in too many known passing downs.

  
  

Keys to the Game: Texans’ Defense vs. Patriots’ Offense

1. Pressuring Drake Maye:

The rookie quarterback, Drake Maye, will be under immense pressure in his first NFL start. DeMeco Ryans has shown how effective his defense can be against inexperienced quarterbacks, as seen earlier in the season against Caleb Williams. Ryans’ defensive game plan should be aggressive, mixing blitzes with disguised coverages to confuse Maye, who will be trying to process NFL defenses at game speed for the first time. The Patriots' offensive line has struggled mightily, giving up the highest pressure rate in the league (48.3%), which presents a golden opportunity for the Texans' pass rush to shine.

2. Confusing Maye with Coverage:

While the Texans will likely rely on their aggressive blitz packages, they should also mix in coverages that shift after the snap. Houston could benefit from rotating safeties late or disguising blitzes that drop into coverage. For Maye, who has limited experience reading NFL defenses, seeing post-snap movement from the Texans’ secondary could lead to hesitation, forcing him into bad decisions or sacks.

3. Take Advantage of Offensive Line Weaknesses:

The Texans lead the NFL in pressure rate (42%), but they need to convert these pressures into tangible results—sacks, QB hits, or turnovers. The Patriots' offensive line has struggled (worst in the league in pressure rate with 48%), so this is the perfect opportunity to turn up the heat and capitalize on Maye’s rookie mistakes. Winning the battle in the trenches will set the tone for the entire game.

Keys to the Game: Texans’ Offense vs. Patriots’ Defense

1. Exploiting Man Coverage Opportunities:

The Patriots are primarily a Cover 1 defense, relying heavily on man-to-man coverage, particularly due to the abilities of their young star cornerback, Christian Gonzalez. Gonzalez allows New England to run man coverage schemes confidently, and with the absence of Nico Collins, the Patriots may feel even more comfortable sticking with this approach. However, this presents a key opportunity for the Texans.

The Texans’ wide receiver trio of Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and Xavier Hutchinson must capitalize when faced with man-to-man coverage. Stroud and his receivers need to take advantage of the Patriots' man-heavy defense by winning their individual matchups, particularly in routes that can beat man coverage like slants, crossing routes, and go-routes. C.J. Stroud’s accuracy and ball placement, paired with his receivers' route-running, could make New England pay if they fail to adjust to the Texans' offensive firepower.

2. Adjusting to Defensive Adaptability:

While the Patriots have primarily run Cover 1 man coverage, it’s important to remember that New England can adjust. Teams like the Jaguars, who were also predominantly man coverage-heavy, adapted against Stroud by switching to more two-high safety looks, forcing Houston to adjust. The Texans need to be prepared for a similar potential shift from New England.

If the Patriots pivot to more two-high shells to limit big plays and protect against Houston’s passing game, the Texans' offense will need to lean on its ground attack and quick intermediate passes. The return of Dameon Pierce (and possibly Joe Mixon) could be pivotal in this scenario, allowing Houston to run effectively and control the game’s tempo.

3. Communication on the Offensive Line:

The Patriots' defense, led by Jerod Mayo, employs a scheme similar to that of the Vikings and other teams from the Brian Flores coaching tree. They thrive on giving opposing offensive lines different pre- and post-snap looks to confuse them and create pressure. The Texans struggled with offensive line communication against Minnesota earlier this season, and this week’s matchup poses a similar threat.

Houston's offensive line has shown improvement, but crowd noise (despite the team's record) and the Patriots’ varied blitzes could cause breakdowns in protection. Stroud needs a clean pocket, and the offensive line must ensure they don’t allow free rushers to disrupt timing or force Stroud into making hurried decisions.

4. Targeting the Middle of the Field:

With Jabrill Peppers out and Kyle Duggar questionable, the Patriots are vulnerable in the middle of the field. The Texans’ tight ends, Dalton Schultz and Cade Stover, should be focal points in the passing game. Targeting the short-to-intermediate zones could exploit the Patriots’ weakened interior defense. This area of the field could be key for moving the chains and keeping New England’s defense on its heels.

Strategic Outlook: Game Flow and Execution

The Texans have a clear advantage defensively against a rookie quarterback and a struggling offensive line. DeMeco Ryans will likely lean heavily on his defense to control the tempo of the game, creating pressure and confusion for Drake Maye. Houston’s defensive game plan will focus on forcing turnovers and limiting big plays, giving the offense advantageous field position.

On offense, C.J. Stroud will need to navigate a Patriots defense that can disguise coverage and send pressure. However, the key to success will be capitalizing on man-to-man coverage opportunities when the Patriots run Cover 1. If Stroud can connect with his receivers in these situations and the offensive line holds up, the Texans should be able to sustain drives and put points on the board.

Expect Houston to aim for balance between the run and pass to keep New England’s defense guessing. Establishing the run early with Dameon Pierce could open up play-action opportunities later, allowing Stroud to exploit mismatches in the secondary.

Prediction: Texans 30, Patriots 6