Houston Texans 53-Man Roster Projection (2025): Rules, IR Strategy, Philosophy, and Position-by-Position Calls
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The final week before cutdown is always messy. This year adds a twist: new IR mechanics, a handful of injuries, and the Jimmie Ward legal track. Below is a complete projection that explains the rules in plain English, how the Texans can sequence IR moves without wasting roster spots, and why this “best players first” build won’t look cookie-cutter by position.
The 2025 roster rules (quick, useful, and actually relevant)
Two “direct to IR-Return” slots at cutdown. At the 53-man reduction, teams may place up to two players directly on IR with designation to return without carrying them on the 53 first.
Four-game minimum. Any IR-Return player must miss at least 4 games; once designated to return, there’s a three-week practice window before activation.
Eight total return designations in season (+2 postseason). Think of these as a season-long budget of 8 returns (plus 2 more available in the postseason).
NFI/PUP → Reserve at cutdown = 4 games missed. Players who spent camp on Active/PUP or Active/NFI can be moved to Reserve/PUP or Reserve/NFI at the 53. They do not count toward the 53 and must miss 4 games.
Commissioner’s Exempt List. League decision only. Player is paid, does not count on the 53, cannot practice or play while placed on Exempt.
How that applies to Houston’s IR calculus
Projected to start on IR:
Tank Dell — season-ending IR.
Denico Autry — direct IR-Return candidate (one of the two).
Trent Brown — direct IR-Return candidate (two of two).
Jaylen Reed (rookie) — protect from waivers: carry on 53 → then move to IR so he’s eligible to return later.
Kurt Hinish — cut/waived (not worth a return slot).
Jimmie Ward — currently PUP; could move to Reserve/PUP at cutdown (misses 4, no 53 spot), or the Commissioner’s Exempt List if the league acts.
Why Autry + Brown for the two direct slots: both are proven vets who project to be 4-game misses and would obviously be claimed. Using the “free” two keeps your 53 clean and preserves return eligibility without roster gymnastics.
Reed’s path: carry him through the 53, then place him on IR. That unlocks return eligibility without waiver risk on a developmental rookie.
Ward options briefly explained:
Reserve/PUP at cutdown → misses 4 games, no 53 hit.
Commissioner’s Exempt (league call) → paid, no 53 hit, sidelined until the case advances. Either pathway removes a Week 1 roster crunch while the situation plays out.
Why the counts won’t be “by the book” (Caley/Caserio philosophy)
A dive into Rams rosters under Sean McVay (with Nick Caley on staff) and New England during Caley’s tenure showed a mixed bag by position from year to year. The throughline: good teams keep their best players, not fixed quotas. That aligns with Caley’s constant “build around the players” message and with Caserio’s draft approach this spring: Jayden Higgins (another X) and Jaylin Noel came on board even after signing Christian Kirk. Caserio talked about collecting talent, not forcing need. Expect the 53 to reflect that same mindset.
What Houston did in recent years (helps frame expectations)
Offense: typically 24–26; OL steady at 9; WR peaked at 7 last year.
Defense: typically 24–26; DL/EDGE almost always 8–10.
Specialists: 3.
Initial IR last year (four): Christian Harris, Kurt Hinish, Brandon Hill, Case Keenum.
This projection: six start on IR (mechanically doable with the sequencing above).
Key dates this week (and why cuts trickle at different times)
Aug 23 — Preseason Week 3 at Detroit
Aug 26 — 53-man roster reduction; move Active PUP/NFI to Reserve (4 games), and use two IR-Return slots
Aug 27, 11:00 a.m. CST — Waiver claims
Aug 27, ~12:00 p.m. CST — Practice-squad signings
Every team handles timing differently. Some start releasing players right after the last preseason snap. Others hold everything until the deadline. Many do a mix. Houston often clusters moves near the deadline, with occasional early trims.
The projection below is the “functional 53” after IR moves
This is the group that actually takes you into Week 1 once IR/PUP/Exempt are applied. The players listed reflect the final state after placing Autry and Brown on IR-Return, moving Dell to season IR, carrying then IR-stashing Reed, and accounting for Ward on Reserve/PUP or Exempt.
Offense — 26
QB (2)
CJ Stroud, Davis Mills
No surprises. Last year’s vet buffer was Keenum; this year, the hope is to retain Slovis and Mertz on the practice squad.
RB/FB (5)
Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Woody Marks, Dare Ogunbowale, Jakob Johnson (FB)
It may be a bold—even reckless —prediction not to place Mixon on IR. If he were on IR-Return, keeping Dameon Pierce in his place would make more sense for the opening stretch. As projected here, Pierce is a trade/cut once Mixon is ready. Depth is strong, and roles are clearly defined.
WR (6)
Nico Collins, Christian Kirk, Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, Xavier Hutchinson, Braxton Berrios
Initially leaned toward 7 wideouts like last year with the No. 7 spot as the return specialist (2024’s Steven Sims). This year the roster likely tightens to 6, with Berrios handling KR/PR. The balance is intentional: 3 reliable big/outside WRs (Collins, Hutchinson, Higgins) and 3 smaller/quick inside options (Kirk, Noel, Berrios). Justin Watson was the toughest cut; he’s the add if Houston flips back to 7.
TE (4)
Dalton Schultz, Cade Stover, Harrison Bryant, Irv Smith Jr.
Four is heavy but fits Caley’s usage. The Metchie→Bryant swap helps circumvent waivers and adds a ready veteran, and makes it harder to cut him. If a spot is needed elsewhere, Irv Smith Jr. is the most vulnerable.
OL (9)
Cam Robinson, Aireontae Ersery, Blake Fisher, Tytus Howard, Laken Tomlinson, Juice Scruggs, Ed Ingram, Jake Andrews, Jarrett Patterson
Trent Brown opens on IR-Return. The hallmark here is versatility: Tytus Howard can cover four of five spots; Ersery swings both tackles; Scruggs and Patterson can handle multiple interior roles. That flexibility stabilizes protection.
Defense — 24
EDGE (4)
Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Darrell Taylor, Derek Barnett
Top-end disruption with rotational depth; Autry’s IR-Return slot keeps the long view intact.
DL (5)
Mario Edwards, Sheldon Rankins, Tommy Togiai, Tim Settle, Folorunso Fatukasi
A steady five while Autry heals. Kurt Hinish does not make it in this build.
LB (6)
Henry To’oTo’o, Azeez Al-Shaair, Christian Harris, Nick Niemann, EJ Speed, Jamal Hill
Final seat came down to Jake Hansen vs. Jamal Hill; Hill’s versatility and developmental upside tops it.
CB (5)
Derek Stingley Jr., Kamari Lassiter, Jaylin Smith, Myles Bryant, D’Angelo Ross
This was tight. Tremon Smith and Arthur Maulet were very real considerations (in that order), with Damon Arnette behind them. If Houston trims TE or another spot, one of Tremon Smith/Maulet could slide in. Ross is the vulnerable one here.
S (4)
Calen Bullock, Jalen Pitre, CJ Gardner-Johnson, MJ Stewart
Decision point was Russ Yeast vs. Jalen Mills vs. MJ Stewart. Stewart’s experience in DeMeco’s system and reliability at strong safety make him a lock here. Yeast/Mills remain viable if Houston wants heavier veteran depth.
Specialists — 3
Ka’imi Fairbairn (K), Tommy Townsend (P), Austin Brinkman (LS)
Jimmie Ward: PUP vs. Exempt (why this matters to the 53)
Reserve/PUP at cutdown: misses 4 games, doesn’t count on the 53. Clean, predictable path if he remains on PUP.
Commissioner’s Exempt: league decision; he’s paid, doesn’t count, and cannot practice/play. It’s administrative leave, not a guilt finding. In practice, the league uses Exempt sparingly and often waits until roster impact is imminent. Either path prevents a Week 1 roster squeeze.
Bubble watch & pivot points (the swaps you can actually see)
Most likely “in” if numbers shift:
Justin Watson (WR7)
Tremon Smith (CB) or Arthur Maulet (CB)
Jake Hansen (LB)
Russ Yeast (S) or Jalen Mills (S)
Most vulnerable if space is needed:
Irv Smith Jr. (TE)
D’Angelo Ross (CB)
Mixon/Pierce hinge: If Mixon lands on IR-Return, keeping Dameon Pierce makes immediate sense for September. If Mixon avoids IR entirely, that’s aggressively optimistic; calling it bold—even reckless— is fair.
Why this projection makes sense
It respects the new IR rules, uses both “free” IR-Return slots on clear vets (Autry, Brown), protects a developmental rookie (Reed) by carrying then stashing, assigns Dell to season IR, and leaves Ward on a path that preserves a roster spot (Reserve/PUP or Exempt). It also matches Houston’s history on counts while honoring Caley/Caserio’s philosophy: best 53 first, positional math second.
From here, any late trade (Pierce), waiver claim, or league decision on Ward will simply toggle one of the bubble names listed above. The bones of the roster stay the same.
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