Texans vs. Buccaneers: Monday Night Football Preview
- Sep 14
- 7 min read
The Breakout That Launched a Star
C.J. Stroud’s first career signature moment came against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers—right here at NRG Stadium. Down late with no timeouts, Stroud engineered one of the better final-minute comebacks in recent memory, delivering a game-winning touchdown strike to Tank Dell that vaulted him into national stardom.
Now, Stroud and the Texans return to NRG under the Monday night lights, aiming to bounce back from a frustrating Week 1 loss to the Rams. And once again, it’s the Bucs standing in the way.
Ohio State Reunion: Egbuka vs. Stroud
There’s a fun Buckeye connection in this one: Texans QB C.J. Stroud and Buccaneers rookie WR Emeka Egbuka were teammates at Ohio State. While they won’t be squaring off directly—both play on offense—it’s notable to see two rising talents from the same college system now suiting up under the Monday night lights.
Egbuka already made his presence felt in Week 1, scoring two touchdowns in his NFL debut. Stroud, meanwhile, will look to settle in and find rhythm after an underwhelming opener—just one year removed from delivering a legendary performance against this same Bucs team in 2023.
Galveston Showdown: Mike Evans vs. Zyon McCollum
Two Galveston Ball High School alumni—Mike Evans and Zyon McCollum—will both suit up for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers under the lights at NRG Stadium on Monday night.
It’s a familiar homecoming for the duo, who played on this same field last season as Bucs teammates. Evans remains one of the league’s premier receivers, while McCollum continues to grow in his role within Tampa Bay’s secondary. Another proud night for the Texas coast.
Coaching Trees Collide
There’s deep familiarity between the offensive systems in this game.
Texans OC Nick Caley comes from the Rams/McVay coaching tree
Bucs OC Josh Grizzard spent 2022-2023 under Mike McDaniel in Miami
Tampa’s 2023 OC Liam Coen was previously with McVay in LA
Both teams carry some DNA from the Shanahan/McVay/McDaniel coaching ecosystem, though each offensive coordinator has put their own spin on it. While many associate this coaching tree with wide zone concepts, both Nick Caley and Josh Grizzard have leaned more into gap and inside zone principles, likely as an adaptation to their personnel.
That continuity of structure—with variation in execution—adds another layer of complexity to this matchup, especially for two defenses that have seen similar schemes in practice but must account for the differences on Monday night.
Defensive Line Can Break the Game
According to NFL Pro / Next Gen Stats, the Buccaneers allowed a 40.9% pressure rate in Week 1, their second-highest since the start of 2024. That marks a sharp regression from last season, when Tampa’s offensive line allowed just 25.9% pressure rate—the second-lowest in the NFL.
With Tristan Wirfs out again, second-year lineman Graham Barton—a natural center—is once again starting at left tackle. Barton struggled in his debut at the position, allowing five pressures, tied for the most on the team in Week 1.
That sets up a difficult assignment against one of the NFL’s most disruptive edge duos: Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. Last season, both ranked in the top 10 in pressure rate among edge defenders (Hunter: 19.1%, Anderson: 16.9%) and combined for 145 pressures, the fifth-most by any edge tandem since 2018.
In Week 1, Hunter logged three pressures while aligning on the right edge for 75% of his snaps—putting him directly across from Barton. While Anderson and Hunter rotated edges more evenly throughout 2024, the left side of Tampa’s offensive line remains a clear target.
The Bucs’ situation may worsen depending on Luke Goedeke’s availability. The starting right tackle is officially a game-time decision, per head coach Todd Bowles. If Goedeke can’t go, former Texans tackle Charlie Heck is in line to start—creating another potential mismatch Houston’s front can exploit.
Interior protection isn’t much steadier. Michael Jordan, a journeyman at left guard, and Ben Bredeson, typically a guard now starting at center, round out a shaky middle. Cody Mauch at right guard has been the most stable piece so far, but overall, this is an offensive line in flux—with multiple players either out of position or playing unfamiliar roles.
It’s a unit that looks vulnerable—and a Texans defensive front that looks ready to capitalize.
Containing Baker is About More Than Pressure
Baker Mayfield was pressured on 40.5% of dropbacks in Week 1, per Next Gen Stats—his second-highest mark in a game since 2023. He responded by scrambling 3 times for 35 yards.
Last season, Mayfield scrambled on 13.5% of pressured dropbacks, the 2nd-highest rate in the NFL. He was also 2nd in total scramble yards (211) on such plays.
But here's the twist: he didn’t handle extra time well last week. He averaged 2.95 seconds to throw, noticeably slower than his 2023–2024 average of 2.70s (6th-fastest in NFL). When holding the ball 4.0+ seconds, Mayfield went 0-for-4 with a sack.
The key? Force Mayfield to hold the ball, and make your DBs plaster and stay connected to their receivers on extended plays. He’s dangerous when he breaks the pocket—so pass rush and coverage must work together.
Texans Nickel D Built to Handle Bucs Formations
The Buccaneers ran 11 personnel on 73.2% of their snaps and used at-snap motion on 38.2% in Week 1—nearly identical to their 2024 usage under former OC Liam Coen.
Houston’s defense is well-equipped to handle that kind of structure. The Texans used nickel (5 DBs) on 91.2% of snaps in Week 1, the highest rate in the NFL, and deployed nickel on 81.0% of snaps in 2024, the second-highest rate in the league. Four of the top eight single-game nickel usage rates last season belonged to Houston.
This is the kind of matchup that aligns well with the Texans' personnel and scheme—allowing them to stay versatile against a spread-heavy, motion-based attack.
Let Chubb Lead the Way
Despite finishing Week 1 with the third-lowest rushing success rate (33.3%), the Texans have a clear answer: Nick Chubb.
13 carries, 60 yards
53.8% success rate (well above team average)
7 missed tackles forced (most in the NFL)
81% of carries between the tackles (a philosophical shift from 43.4% last season)
When Chubb is the engine, the play-action game opens up—and that’s when this offense becomes dangerous.
Communication Key vs. Bowles Blitzes
C.J. Stroud handled pressure well in Week 1, going 9-of-10 for 102 yards against a 41.2% pressure rate. He stayed poised, didn’t panic, and kept the offense afloat.
But now comes a different kind of stress test: Todd Bowles.
The Buccaneers blitzed on 38.9% of opposing dropbacks in 2024 (2nd-highest) and led the league in unblocked pressures (64). In Week 1 alone, they generated 20 pressures on 46 dropbacks (43.5%), with Haason Reddick notching 7.
What makes Bowles different is how complex and disguised his pressure looks are:
79.8% of his blitzes are man blitzes, 13.5% more than any other team
He’s also consistently used zone blitzes at top-6 rates across seasons\
With Jarrett Patterson back at center (no pressures allowed on 9 pass blocks last week), communication should improve. But the entire OL will be tested again in getting aligned and ID'ing assignments.
Stroud’s Legs Are Becoming a Key Part of the Offense
One of the most promising developments for the Texans offense late last season—and again in Week 1—has been C.J. Stroud’s increased willingness to use his legs. While he's never been labeled a dual-threat quarterback, Stroud has shown excellent instincts in knowing when to take off and steal free yards in key moments.
This does multiple things for the offense:
It keeps the Texans out of 3rd-and-long situations by turning broken plays or covered reads into positive gains.
It forces defenses to account for another threat, which in turn opens up windows in the passing game.
And it adds pressure to defenders in underneath coverage, who may hesitate to drop as deep if they're worried about Stroud pulling the ball and running.
The Buccaneers’ defenders already seem aware of this element of Stroud’s game. Based on how he closed 2024 and how he played in Week 1, there’s reason to believe his legs are now factoring into how defenses call coverages and react post-snap. Tampa’s linebackers and safeties could creep forward in zone or hesitate in man coverage if Stroud continues to threaten the edge and middle with his mobility.
For Stroud, continuing to make quick, smart decisions—whether it’s delivering the ball or tucking and running—will be key to keeping the offense on schedule and the defense honest.
Keys to the Game
Texans Defense
Win up front and create turnovers off pressure – Take advantage of Tampa’s reshuffled offensive line to generate disruption and force mistakes.
Collapse the Pocket, Contain the Escape – Force Mayfield to hold the ball and limit off-scripts
DBs Must Plaster – Cover receivers twice on extended plays
Texans Offense
Feed Chubb Between the Tackles
Get to the line early and communicate pre-snap – Key to identifying and picking up Bowles’ exotic pressure looks.
Win Early Downs to Set Up Play-Action→ All of which will help open the playbook and get Nico Collins more involved, a point of emphasis for fans and staff alike.
Final Prediction
Houston’s defense can fuel the offense in this one. A dominant performance up front should set the tone early, and a more disciplined offensive effort with fewer penalties—paired with a steadier ground game—could help unlock Nick Caley’s playbook, especially the deep shots and play-action concepts that were limited in Week 1.
DeMeco Ryans has a track record of dialing up strong defensive game plans at home in primetime, and this could shape up to be another vintage performance. With a loud NRG crowd and the new stadium soundboard upgrades likely to impact communication at the line, Houston has a real chance to create presnap penalties and confusion for a Buccaneers offensive line full of players either out of position or in unfamiliar spots.
If the Texans capitalize on that chaos and generate a few takeaways, I could see this turning into a multiple-score win, powered by defensive disruption and a physical, run-first approach.
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