Texans vs Jaguars: Week 10 Game Preview
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The Texans play at home this week for what is, functionally, a season-determining game. After a loss to Denver that saw Houston control most of the game defensively but lose offensive continuity following C.J. Stroud’s early concussion, the Texans enter Week 10 at 3-5 instead of 4-4. Jacksonville enters at 5-3 and has undergone its own structural adjustments since the first meeting. Both teams are significantly different in personnel, usage, and approach compared to Week 3.
This preview examines the tactical framework, personnel availability, matchup leverage, and the schematic adjustments required for Houston to remain in postseason contention.
Recent Performance Context
Houston’s defense played a high-level game against Denver, controlling run fits, maintaining coverage discipline, and generating disruption without overextending into blitz tendencies. The offense, however, stalled following Stroud’s departure.
Denver began the game playing man coverage with single-high safety. Davis Mills was able to win early by targeting Nico Collins as the isolation receiver, taking advantage of Collins’ ability to beat man leverage and Mills’ comfort getting the ball out on rhythm against man looks.
At halftime, Broncos DC Vance Joseph shifted to:
Zone with depth
Drop 8 looks
Coverage rotation post-snap
This forced Mills to:
Hold the ball longer
Work through layered reads
Throw into tighter, horizontal spacing windows
The Texans did not adjust their passing structure to counter the shift. The offense became coverage-defined rather than quarterback-defined, and drive sustainability diminished.
Injury & Personnel Availability
Houston
Projected Offensive Line
LT Aireontae Ersery
LG Laken Tomlinson
C Jake Andrews
RG Juice Scruggs
RT Blake Fisher
Houston has used 6+ OL jumbo personnel on 13.0% of snaps, 2nd-highest in NFL, averaging 4.7 yards per play in these sets.However, this was dependent on:
Howard at RT
Fisher functioning as the swing sixth lineman
With Howard unavailable:
Jumbo functionality is reduced
Shift toward 10 and 11 personnel becomes logical
Replacing Jalen Pitre: Structural, Not Positional
Jalen Pitre’s loss changes the shape of the defense, not just the depth chart. Pitre is used as a fit-player, almost functioning as a hybrid safety-linebacker inside the formation. He inserts into run fits like a WILL, carries shallow crossers, matches RBs in space, and plays the curl/flat in quarters as a pattern-matching defender. That skill set is not replicated by the remaining healthy DBs.
Likely Adjustment: Myles Bryant in Nickel on Passing Downs
When Houston has been thin at nickel previously, they have:
Elevated Myles Bryant from the practice squad on gameday
Used him as the passing-down slot defender
Bryant is best used in:
Known passing situations
Cover 6 / quarters split-safety alignments
Situations where the nickel’s job is to midpoint route distributions rather than fit the run
Because Bryant is a coverage-oriented nickel, using him in run-heavy downs would invite Jacksonville to run directly at him.
Therefore:
Bryant’s usage will likely be situational, not base.
Base and Early Downs: Expect More 4–3
Given Jacksonville’s recent spike in jumbo personnel (32.5% 6+ OL usage last week), Houston has strong reason to match heaviness with heft.
Projected LB Structure in Base / Run Downs:
This alignment:
Maintains force and spill integrity against pin-pull and duo
Allows Al-Shaair to remain the run-fit centralizer
Keeps Speed as the apex / force defender against tight surfaces
Allows To’oTo’o to play scrape-flow rather than take on insert guards directly
Why This Matters Against Jacksonville
Jacksonville is now:
Using condensed formations
Pulling linemen to the play side
Creating double teams at the point of attack
Relying on yards-after-contact from Etienne
Houston must:
Win horizontal leverage first
Set force defenders early
Close interior cutback lanes with disciplined backside fits
Running a true nickel vs Jacksonville’s jumbo creates stress on the C-gap and alley. Running 4–3 removes that stress and reinforces the box.
Passing Downs
Once Jacksonville:
Substitutes into 11 personnel OR
Is forced into long yardage
Houston can then:
Move to 4–2–5
Insert Myles Bryant at nickel
Return to split-safety looks (Cover 4 / Cover 6)
This sequencing aligns exactly with Houston’s existing identity:
Cover 3 Buzz on early downs to fit the run
Cover 4 / 6 on passing downs to force layered reads
Summary of Adjusted Defensive Structure
This maintains run integrity while still leveraging Houston’s advantage in zone coverage vs Trevor Lawrence.
Jacksonville Personnel Changes Since Week 3
This is not the same Jaguars roster Houston saw in Week 3. Multiple core contributors on both sides of the ball are either out or newly integrated, and those shifts have directly influenced Jacksonville’s offensive identity, formation tendencies, and coverage structures.
Offense
TE Brenton Strange (IR)
Strange was their most versatile tight end in terms of:
Changing run surfaces pre-snap
Blocking from multiple alignments
Handling split zone sift responsibilities
With Strange on IR and Hunter Long also injured last week, Johnny Mundt becomes the TE1. Mundt is a functional blocker, but:
He is not a formation stress player
He does not threaten the seam or intermediate windows
He limits the offense’s ability to run out of 11 personnel without tipping direction
This has a direct impact:
The spike to 32.5% jumbo usage against Vegas was not a one-off experiment — it was a structural adaptation caused by personnel availability. With TE depth compromised, the Jaguars have replaced tight ends with offensive linemen to create additional angles and double-teams in the run game.
This directly increases the importance of Houston matching with heavier personnel (4–3 base), which we covered in the defensive structure section.
WR Group Changes
WR Brian Thomas Jr. is out.
WR/CB Travis Hunter recently moved to IR.
Jacksonville traded for Jakobi Meyers this week.
Meyers will primarily play outside while learning terminology.
Parker Washington is expected to continue as the primary slot.
Impact on spacing:
Thomas Jr. functioned as the clear-out vertical threat in their passing structure.
Without him, Jacksonville has less ability to stretch safeties vertically, which compresses intermediate windows.
This plays directly into Houston’s high-volume split-safety zone structure.
The absence of Thomas and Strange also correlates with increased jumbo usage because the Jaguars:
No longer have a TE with functional vertical stretch
No longer have a WR group with reliable three-level layering
Are leaning into run-first sequencing
Offensive Line
LG Ezra Cleveland is out.This affects the interior double team power mechanics that Jacksonville relies on in duo and mid-zone. Expect more:
Pin-pull
Insert-blocking
Counter variations
The run game will likely attempt to create horizontal displacement rather than vertical push — which increases the importance of Houston maintaining force and spill leverage, especially when aligned in 4–3 structure.
Defense
Nickel / Secondary
Jourdan Lewis, who had an INT in the first matchup, is out.
Likely replacement: Jarrian Jones at nickel.
This increases the availability of slant/glance windows for Nico Collins, which aligns with Houston's expected quick-game passing plan.
S Eric Murray on IR
Murray was part of Jacksonville’s two-high disguise and late rotation packages.
Without him, coverage can become more static.
Expect more pre-snap clarity for Mills, particularly in:
Cover 6 rotations
Red zone spacing shells
Summary of Jacksonville Structural Changes
Matchup Analysis: Jaguars Offense vs Texans Defense
Run Game
Houston must address tackling consistency, but the Texans have been effective limiting yards after missed contact:
16.7% missed tackle rate (highest in NFL)
But only 4.8 yards allowed per missed tackle (4th-fewest)
This indicates:
First contact is often early
Rally & leverage support is sound
Travis Etienne:
Forced 9 missed tackles last week
Generated 98 yards after contact
Was hit behind the line on 63.6% of carries
Houston held Etienne to:
6 total yards before contact in Week 3
56.3% behind-the-line contact rate
Game Plan Requirement:
Houston must fit interior run first
Maintain gap integrity
Avoid edge over-pursuit on stretch & counter
5 down lineman to match heavy
Trevor Lawrence vs Zone Coverage
Lawrence vs Zone (2025)
60.8% completion (2nd-lowest among qualified QBs)
6.0 YPA (5th-lowest)
79.7 passer rating (3rd-worst in NFL)
0 TDs vs split-safety defenses
Houston plays:
Zone on 82.6% of dropbacks (4th-most)
Two-high on 49.5% (6th-most)
Houston allows:
57.2% completion (best in NFL)
5.9 YPA (best in NFL)
Coverage Structure Recommendation
Pass Rush vs Jaguars OL
Walker Little (LT): 13.9% pressure rate allowed (5th-highest)
Danielle Hunter vs Little = advantage to Houston
Will Anderson Jr. pressure rate from right edge: 29.5%, highest among DL with ≥25 rushes there
Houston leads NFL in:
Fastest time to pressure: 2.52 seconds
Matchup Analysis: Texans Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Quarterback Structure
Davis Mills Time to Throw
Jacksonville allows:
73.8% completions on quick passes (highest TD allowance in league)
54.5% completions on longer developing plays (5th-lowest)
8 INT on extended plays (T-2nd-most)
Coverage Tendency
Jaguars play:
Cover 6 on 21.1% of snaps (highest in NFL)
4 INTs, 0 TDs allowed in Cover 6
Receiver Distribution Strategy
Use Nico vs off-leverage inside access → slant / glance / pivot
Use Schultz early and repeatedly as first-window option:
75% of targets short
252 yards on short routes (most among TEs)
Run Game Expectation
Texans run game performance:
3.7 YPC (6th-fewest)
28.9% success rate (worst in NFL)
6.7% explosive run rate (2nd-worst)
Jaguars run defense:
37.1% success rate allowed (8th-lowest)
6.0% explosive run rate allowed (4th-lowest)
Run to control pace, not to establish identity.Run later once spacing is earned. PASS TO OPEN THE RUN!
Keys to the Game
Defense
Fit the Run Early
Maintain box integrity.
Avoid vertical displacement in double teams.
Force Lawrence to Process Zone
Cover 3 early → Cover 4 & 6 late.
Remove first-read throws.
Generate Pressure with Four
Hunter vs Little is a controllable matchup edge.
Flip Anderson sides selectively to stress rules.
Offense
Quick Game to Control Rhythm (PASS TO OPEN THE RUN)
Mills must operate in < 2.5 seconds.
Schultz heavy involvement early.
Target Nico Through Defined Leverage
Use slants, glance, inside stems against Cover 6.
Run Outside the Core
Stretch, pin-pull, toss, speed option variations.
Avoid interior duo vs Jacksonville’s interior.
Conclusion
This is a backs-against-the-wall game for Houston. At 3-5, the difference between winning and losing here is not just record—it reshapes postseason probability, locker room trajectory, and how the remainder of the season is approached. It is a must-win at home, and it is the type of environment in which DeMeco Ryans has historically had strong command. His teams have responded well when urgency is required, execution margins are thin, and the defense must carry structure.
This situation also mirrors another defining point in the 2023 season: a divisional game with the playoffs on the line, quarterback injured, and a backup needing to stabilize the offense. In Week 17 of the 2023 season, Case Keenum started over Davis Mills in a must-have divisional game. Keenum didn’t need to be explosive—he needed to be efficient, keep the offense in phase, and allow the defense to define the game. He did, and that performance helped propel the Texans into a postseason push.
This game presents a similar framework.
Houston does not require Davis Mills to create outside structure or carry the offense.
The requirement is:
Quick, rhythm-based passing to prevent long-yardage situations
Maintaining possession structure to support the defense
Executing complementary football rather than chasing explosive plays
The defensive matchup aligns cleanly with Houston’s identity. If the Texans shut down Jacksonville’s run game (use of 4-3 & 5 down lineman looks can aid this), the Jaguars’ offense becomes compressed and predictable. Given the Jaguars’ current wide receiver and tight end injuries, reduced vertical stretch capacity, and Trevor Lawrence’s struggles against zone coverage—particularly split-safety looks—Houston can control the game defensively and create turnover opportunities. The Texans have the personnel and coverage structure to force Jacksonville into late-down decision-making, where Lawrence has struggled this season.
Offensively, the priority is to pass to open the run, not attempt to establish the run into static boxes or disadvantageous interior leverage. If early rushing efficiency is low—as is reasonable to expect given the current OL configuration and Jacksonville’s defensive interior—Nick Caley will need to adjust quickly rather than remain attached to run identity. Mills’ quick-game efficiency supports this adjustment directly.
However, even if the offensive adaptations are only partially implemented, Houston still holds a structural path to winning through defensive control alone. The Texans can dictate the game if they own early-down run fits, force Jacksonville into passing situations, rush with four, and layer coverage behind it.
This matchup is determined by alignment of structure, not emotion or momentum.The pathway is clear:
Stop the run early.
Force predictable passing.
Play split-safety zone.
Win with the front four.
Use quick game to maintain offensive stability.
If executed, Houston can produce a repeat of 2023’s must-have divisional win with a backup quarterback, and keep the season alive.
This is a tactical game. The structure determines the outcome.
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