Texans vs. Jaguars: Week 3 Preview
- Sep 21
- 11 min read
The Houston Texans head into a key AFC South matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium on Sunday, looking to rebound from a tough 0-2 start. Division games carry extra weight, and Houston has historically fared well against Jacksonville, riding a seven-game road winning streak in Duval. This matchup brings no shortage of storylines and critical keys that could shape the outcome.
Texans Injury Report
Houston enters this divisional matchup relatively healthy. The most notable loss is rookie corner Jaylin Smith, who was placed on injured reserve after logging meaningful snaps in Week 2 when Jalen Pitre briefly exited with a rib issue. Otherwise, the Texans are in good shape, with key returns on offense in Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios expected to give the unit a boost.
Jaguars Injury Report
Jacksonville is also in solid health. The primary absence is rookie offensive lineman Wyatt Millum, who is out and leaves the Jaguars thinner in their depth up front. Beyond that, the roster is largely intact, setting up both teams to field close to their full-strength lineups for this critical AFC South showdown.
Storylines to Watch
Christian Kirk’s Return to Jacksonville
This will be Christian Kirk’s Texans debut after missing the first two weeks with a hamstring injury, and fittingly it comes in Jacksonville — the place he called home for the past three seasons. Traded to Houston this offseason, Kirk now faces his former teammates and fans in a building where he posted some of the best numbers of his career.
Kirk’s return comes alongside Braxton Berrios, giving the Texans’ offense a completely different look than it had in Weeks 1 and 2. With both sidelined, Houston rarely turned to rookie slot receiver Jaylin Noel, likely because the staff didn’t feel he was ready to handle the “adjuster” role that requires reading defenses and making option-route decisions on the fly. Instead, the Texans leaned heavily on bigger-bodied X-type receivers and a more physical run approach, which limited spacing and left C.J. Stroud without a true slot security blanket to counter blitzes.
Now, with Kirk and Berrios back in the fold, the offense should resemble something much closer to its intended design — spread concepts, more versatility in route distribution, and reliable quick-game answers for Stroud against pressure.
One downstream effect could be freeing up Nico Collins, who has been limited so far this year in part because defenses have been able to bracket him without worrying about quick inside options. Kirk’s ability to win one-on-ones underneath and force coverage adjustments should eventually tilt things back toward Nico, creating more true single-matchup opportunities where he thrives.
Azeez Al-Shaair vs. Jaguars Fans
Linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair is making his first appearance against Jacksonville since last season’s controversial hit on Trevor Lawrence that led to his suspension. While many in Houston saw it as a legal hit on a late slide, Jaguars players and fans have taken it personally. Al-Shaair has said the criticism hasn’t faded, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Jaguars faithful let him hear it on Sunday. His intensity will be key against Jacksonville’s run game.
Coaching Familiarity: Liam Coen Connection
For the third straight week, Houston faces an offense with ties to the Rams. Jaguars new head coach Liam Coen was the offensive coordinator in Tampa Bay last year and spent time with the Los Angeles Rams before that. The Texans have already faced both teams this season, giving them recent experience against concepts and tendencies Coen is likely to employ. Screens were heavily featured in Tampa Bay’s game plan last week, and Jacksonville could lean on a similar strategy to slow Houston’s formidable pass rush.
Familiar Faces and Homecomings
Former Texans safety Eric Murray now lines up in Jacksonville’s secondary after signing as a free agent this offseason.
Wide receiver Xavier Hutchinson returns home to Jacksonville, making this matchup extra meaningful for the third-year Texan.
And don’t forget the Texans’ history here: in 2023, Tank Dell broke out in Jacksonville, a reminder that big performances can emerge when Houston travels to Duval.
Brian Thomas Jr. Facing a Tougher Test
Second-year receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has been a focal point of Jacksonville’s offensive inconsistency early in 2025. After bursting onto the scene as a rookie, Thomas has looked far less confident through two games. According to NFL Next Gen Stats (via NFL Pro), he has caught just 5 of 19 targets for 60 yards, producing -100 receiving yards over expected — the second-lowest by any player through Week 2 of a season in the NGS era (since 2016), trailing only Antonio Brown’s -127 in 2018. For perspective, he recorded +187 receiving yards over expected in 2024 (13th-most in the league). Of his 250 air yards this year, 194 have gone incomplete, the second-most leaguewide.
Some of this may be attributed to the wrist injury he’s working through, or the challenge of adapting to Liam Coen’s new system, which likely has tasked him with different responsibilities than in his rookie campaign. Still, the film from last week showed moments where he appeared to shy from contact, raising questions about confidence as much as usage.
This matchup against Houston only raises the stakes. Derek Stingley Jr. faced Thomas twice last season, but only shadowed him extensively in one of the two meetings. In Week 4 of 2024, Stingley aligned across Thomas on just 30.8% of his routes, but in the Week 13 rematch, that number jumped to 64.9%. With Houston’s defense more flexible in 2025, it’s possible Stingley once again draws extended snaps on Thomas to test his physicality at the line.
There’s also the added wrinkle of Jacksonville’s young receiving corps featuring Travis Hunter.
Of the 79 snaps Hunter and Thomas have shared, they’ve lined up on the same side 43 times and opposite 36 times. The splits tell the story: when they’ve been divided, the Jaguars have completed 60.7% of passes for 7.0 yards per dropback. When aligned together, that drops to 48.0% and 3.8 yards per dropback. Interestingly, Hunter has been more efficient when stationed in the slot (5.8 YPA) than Thomas (3.1 YPA), despite Thomas being targeted there twice as often.
Houston’s defense under DeMeco Ryans has built its identity on physicality, particularly in the secondary. If Thomas struggled with contact against Cincinnati’s defensive backs, he’s in for an even tougher challenge here. Expect the Texans to test his willingness to battle through press coverage and contested catches — and it’s likely something Ryans and his staff have already highlighted in their game plan.
This game may say a lot about where Thomas stands in his development. If he again looks timid, the Jaguars’ passing game risks becoming overly reliant on Calvin Ridley and Travis Hunter.
Rest Advantage for Jacksonville
The Jaguars enter with extra rest following Monday Night Football, a factor that could prove significant in the second half. Houston will need to match energy and execution early to offset Jacksonville’s fresher legs.
Keys to the Game
1. Stop the Run and Eliminate Leaky Yardage
The biggest challenge for Houston will be containing a Jacksonville rushing attack that currently leads the NFL at 169.5 yards per game. The Jaguars’ backfield is young but explosive, with rookie Bhayshul Tuten, a straight-line speed threat, and LeQuint Allen Jr., a versatile rookie runner, complementing Travis Etienne. Through two weeks, Jacksonville’s running backs have already produced +88 rushing yards over expected, the most of any team, while generating +0.03 EPA per rush (second only to the Rams).
Houston’s run defense enters this matchup reeling. Against Tampa Bay in Week 2, the Texans allowed a 63.0% rushing success rate to Buccaneers backs — the second-highest single-game mark by any team this season and Houston’s highest allowed since 2023. They also gave up +25 rushing yards over expected, their fourth-most allowed in a game since 2023.
The concern is history repeating itself: Jacksonville’s running backs posted their highest single-game rushing yards over expected last year (+69 in Week 4 of 2024) against these same Texans. This season, Houston has surrendered +0.12 EPA per carry to opposing backs, the worst mark in the NFL.
To avoid being gashed again, the Texans must clean up tackling and limit the “leaky yardage” after contact that plagued them last week. Winning first down will be essential to keep Trevor Lawrence behind the sticks and force Jacksonville away from its most efficient weapon.
2. Pressure with Four
Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. have quickly emerged as one of the league’s most productive edge duos, and their impact will be central to Houston’s game plan. Both recorded sacks in Week 2, and the Texans need them to generate consistent pressure without relying on heavy blitzing. The reason is simple: it allows Houston to sit back in zone coverage, where Trevor Lawrence has historically struggled.
Anderson has been especially disruptive to start 2025. He has generated the second-most pressures in the league (13) through two games, while Hunter has added seven of his own. Anderson’s efficiency is even more impressive — he’s averaging a time to pressure of 2.37 seconds, a career best and a full 0.36 seconds faster than his rookie season in 2023. Both rushers are carrying over elite efficiency from last year as well: Hunter finished second in pressure rate (19.1%) and Anderson seventh (16.9%) among 91 qualified edge rushers in 2024.
The Jaguars’ offensive tackles will be under the spotlight. Walker Little allowed the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL last season (5.1%), but that number has more than doubled in 2025 (11.8%) after tough early matchups. Cincinnati’s Trey Hendrickson accounted for four of Little’s career-high six pressures last week, and Minnesota’s D.J. Wonnum forced three more in Week 1. On the opposite side, Anton Harrison has taken a step forward. After allowing a 7.3% pressure rate in 2024, he’s improved dramatically to 2.6% this year — the lowest among right tackles. He has also cleaned up quick pressure issues, dropping from 3.5% last season to 2.6% (16th-lowest). Over his last nine games, Harrison has not allowed a pressure rate higher than 9.8% or more than two quick pressures in a game.
This trench battle ties directly into Houston’s coverage philosophy. The Texans have leaned heavily into zone defense this season, playing zone on 83.1% of opposing dropbacks (fifth-highest in the NFL), up from 72.4% in 2024. That has proven to be Trevor Lawrence’s kryptonite — he is averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt against zone this season, fourth-lowest in the league, and all three of his interceptions have come against zone, tied for the most in the NFL.
Houston’s edge alignment has also become more defined in 2025. After splitting snaps more evenly in 2024, Hunter has now lined up on the right edge for 75.5% of his snaps — by far the highest share of his career — while Anderson has stayed mostly on the left edge (83.3%), nearly identical to his rookie usage in 2023. This consistency allows DeMeco Ryans’ defense to set the fronts they want, stress Jacksonville’s tackles, and trust their coverage shell to bait Lawrence into mistakes.
If Anderson and Hunter can win their matchups rushing four, Houston’s defense will be able to dictate the game — compressing passing windows in zone, forcing Lawrence to hold the ball, and capitalizing on Jacksonville’s early protection cracks.
3. Disguise Pre-Snap Looks
A major subplot in this game will be how both teams use — and react to — pre-snap movement. Nick Caley’s offense has looked markedly different from Bobby Slowik’s in this regard. Last season, Houston used motion on 67.7% of plays (7th-highest in the NFL). Under Caley, that number has dropped by more than 10 percentage points to 55.3%, which ranks 10th-lowest this year.
The personnel situation has played a role. With Braxton Berrios and Christian Kirk sidelined through the first two games, Houston lacked true slot receivers to run motion-based concepts. Rookie Jaylin Noel hasn’t been trusted yet with the full “adjuster” responsibilities, and last week’s absence of rookie tight end Cade Stover hurt in the run game, where his ability to execute motions in split-zone and duo looks would have helped. The result was an offense that leaned heavily on X-type receivers and physical run calls rather than the spacing and flexibility that motion typically creates.
The split between run and pass usage has been stark. Caley employs motion on 79.5% of designed runs (third-highest in the league), but only 40.6% of pass plays (fifth-lowest). This reflects his game-plan offense, which adjusts week to week based on the opponent. With Kirk and Berrios returning, there’s reason to believe that number could climb, particularly against a Jaguars defense that leans on pre-snap disguise and screens under Liam Coen.
Another big piece tied to this is Houston’s urgency in getting to the line of scrimmage. The Texans improved in Week 2 but still need to be quicker in their tempo. Getting lined up faster allows Caley to use motion more effectively, gives C.J. Stroud more time to diagnose the defense pre-snap, and prevents Houston from being squeezed by the play clock.
For Jacksonville, Coen has long emphasized motion and quick throws to manipulate coverages and get the ball out of Trevor Lawrence’s hands. Houston’s ability to disguise coverages, roll safeties post-snap, and adjust cleanly to Jacksonville’s shifts will go a long way toward determining how comfortable Lawrence feels in rhythm.
This chess match at the line of scrimmage may not grab headlines, but it could quietly decide the flow of the game. If Caley leans more into motion with his reinforcements back — and if the Texans get to the line faster — the offense should look much sharper than it has through the first two weeks.
4. Quick Game with Christian Kirk
C.J. Stroud has leaned heavily on the quick passing game this season, with 47.1% of his attempts coming on throws released in under 2.5 seconds. The results, however, have been mixed, as the offense has lacked consistent rhythm and separation in the short areas of the field.
That’s where Christian Kirk comes in. Known for his ability to win with quick releases and timing routes, Kirk provides Stroud with the kind of reliable veteran target this offense has sorely missed through the first two weeks. His return should immediately help Houston counter Jacksonville’s spot pressures and give Stroud a trustworthy outlet when the pocket collapses or blitzes come.
It was noticeable in the first two games that Stroud and his receivers were often not on the same page against zone defenses — particularly on anticipation throws that require the quarterback and receiver to read the coverage the same way. That trust and synchronicity are crucial in this scheme, and Kirk’s experience should stabilize those timing issues. If he and Stroud quickly build rapport, it not only raises the efficiency of the quick game but also forces defenses to think twice about bracketing Nico Collins, opening up more one-on-one opportunities outside.
5. Force Lawrence to Hold the Ball
Jacksonville’s passing game is designed to keep Trevor Lawrence on schedule and avoid pressure, with quick throws and heavy use of screens built into the structure. Expect that tendency to be amplified against Houston’s pass rush. The Jaguars have already leaned on creative screens through their first two games, and the Buccaneers provided a recent blueprint for success, repeatedly using running backs out of the backfield to neutralize pressure.
For Houston, the key will be recognizing these screens early, fighting through blocks, and finishing tackles. Tackling has been a recurring weakness under DeMeco Ryans, ranking among the team’s most persistent issues in each of his first two seasons. It showed up again in Week 2 against Tampa Bay, where missed tackles repeatedly turned short gains into explosive plays. This has been a point of emphasis in practice, but it remains one of the defining balance points for Ryans’ defense — marrying the aggressive swarm mindset with the discipline to stay under control.
The numbers also show how Jacksonville has shifted under new offensive play-caller Liam Coen. Lawrence’s air yards per attempt have dropped from 9.3 in 2024 (2nd-longest in the league) to 7.5 this season. Meanwhile, 24.7% of his pass attempts have come behind the line of scrimmage, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL. The emphasis on quick game and screens is clear, and Houston’s ability to counter it will be crucial.
If the Texans can limit Jacksonville’s quick-game efficiency, they can tie it directly back into their front-four pressure plan. Taking away Lawrence’s easy answers forces him to hold the ball and push it downfield against zone looks, an area where he has struggled. So far this season, Lawrence is averaging just 5.4 yards per attempt against zone (4th-lowest in the league), and all three of his interceptions have come versus zone, tied for the most in the NFL.
In short, if Houston wins early downs with tackling and screen discipline, their defensive front can dictate the game by rushing four, keeping zone shells intact, and daring Lawrence to make difficult throws into tight windows.
6. Special Teams Edge
Rookie Jaylin Noel leads the NFL in punt return average (17.4 yards) and already has a 53-yard return this season. Houston’s ability to spring another big return could flip field position in what projects to be a tight divisional battle.
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