Texans at 0-2: Predictability, Missed Chances, and Urgency After Another Close Loss
- Sep 18
- 16 min read
The Houston Texans sit at 0-2 after another narrow loss, this time to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And just like last week, it wasn’t talent that failed them. It was execution, predictable play-calling, and critical situational mistakes. This game was there to be won.
Instead, Houston gave it away.
The Opening Phase: Both Offenses Move, Then the Defenses Adjust
The first few drives looked like a track meet and a potential repeat of the 2023 matchup. Both Houston and Tampa marched the ball effectively, largely because the defenses came out in safe shells — rushing four and playing coverage behind it.
It made sense strategically. Tampa Bay clearly respected what C.J. Stroud had done against the blitz in Week 1, shredding extra rushers with poise and quick reads. They weren’t about to test him the same way early. The Texans mirrored that approach against Baker Mayfield, trusting their front four to get home without having to expose coverage.
But the rhythm didn’t last. Once both defensive staffs adjusted, the game swung into a grind. Tampa started bringing extra heat, and Houston responded in kind. What began as clean opening scripts turned into a war of attrition, where sustaining drives became a matter of execution on money downs. That’s where the Texans came up short.
Third-Down Problems: Not Distance, But Philosophy and Execution
Houston finished 2/8 on 3rd down and 0/1 on 4th down. On the surface, that looks like another night of being stuck in long-yardage situations. But that wasn’t the story this time. The distances were manageable — the problem was how the Texans approached them.
On multiple 3rd-and-shorts, the play calls were designed for low-percentage chunk gains rather than simply moving the sticks.
At times, it was on design — max-protect deep shots with only one or two options.
Other times, it was on C.J. Stroud, opting to take the vertical rather than the underneath.
In either case, the result was the same: drives ending when they needed to extend. And that failure showed up in the snap count — 46 offensive plays for Houston vs. 72 for Tampa Bay. The Bucs nearly ran one and a half games’ worth of snaps compared to the Texans, and that discrepancy gassed Houston’s defense by the final drive.
This is where in-game awareness has to sharpen. When you’re losing the time of possession battle and your defense is already overworked, conversions must be the priority. Explosives can wait until you’ve stacked snaps.
Predictable Play-Calling: Tells the Bucs Could Read
The Texans’ offense is tipping its hand too often:
Under center: overwhelmingly run.
Shotgun: overwhelmingly pass.
Dare Ogunbowale on the field: almost always pass, even on 3rd-and-short.
For Tampa, this made the defense’s job easier. They could cheat against tendencies, anticipate concepts, and play ahead of schedule.
The usage of Dare Ogunbowale on 3rd downs was especially problematic. The staff leaned on him as the passing-down option, but the results were poor:
Predictability: His presence essentially announced pass, even on short yardage, which tipped Tampa to load pressure looks.
Protection issues: Dare posted a 6.6 PFF pass-blocking grade, one of the lowest you’ll see. On tape, he was overpowered once and made multiple mental busts.
This is not a sustainable answer. Dare cannot be the 3rd-down back. Houston invested in Woody Marks as a passing-down weapon — trading up to draft him as the best receiving back in his class — and it’s time to lean into that. Marks has the natural skillset to thrive on option routes, angle routes, and checkdowns that keep the chains moving.
At the same time, Nick Chubb should also remain in the conversation for 3rd-down usage. While not a traditional receiving back, he’s still the Texans’ most reliable runner and can keep defenses honest in short-yardage. Having Chubb on the field on 3rd downs forces defenses to respect both run and pass, eliminating the predictability Dare brings.
If Houston wants to fix its third-down offense, the formula is simple: phase Dare out of that role, diversify with Chubb and Marks, and stop telegraphing intent with personnel.
Wasted Opportunities: Goal Line and Special Teams
The Texans had chances to flip this game:
Goal Line Failure: Coming away without points in a tight game is crushing.
Big Punt Return and Blocked Punt: Two huge special teams plays gave Houston short fields. They didn’t fully capitalize, squandering momentum that could have turned the game.
This wasn’t about luck or bad breaks. It was about failing to execute in high-leverage spots where great teams put games away.
C.J. Stroud: Fair Critique, Areas to Grow
Much of the outside talk around Stroud after this game has been harsh, even exaggerated. I don’t think he has performed nearly as poorly as some narratives suggest. But that doesn’t mean he’s been flawless, either.
Where he needs to improve:
Stepping up in the pocket: Stroud has developed some bad habits from last year’s disastrous interior OL (Kenyon Green and Shaq Mason were two of the lowest-graded guards in football). His trust in the pocket isn’t fully back, and you can see it when he drifts instead of climbing. As the interior improves, that should return naturally.
Taking what’s there: He can be more disciplined about checkdowns. Too often, he hunts the deeper read when an outlet is open that could keep the chains moving. In the same vein, he should use his legs more — especially against man coverage, where defenders are turned and he has “free yards” available. Those cheap 5–10 yard gains matter.
Down-and-distance awareness: Tying back to 3rd-and-short decisions, Stroud sometimes presses for the big play instead of prioritizing the first down. That situational maturity will come, but it’s an area to monitor.
Where the criticism is misguided:
The “inaccuracy” narrative is overblown. Many of the supposed misses were actually receiver errors in zone coverage — wideouts failing to throttle down in soft spots, instead running straight into coverage as Stroud released. That makes the QB look wild when, in reality, the ball was on time but the route was wrong.
This is where veterans like Braxton Berrios and Christian Kirk matter. Stroud needs receivers he can trust to read coverage the same way he does. Having that reliability will prevent wasted plays that look like misfires on him but are really route issues.
Stroud remains the reason to believe in this team long-term. The critique is not about him being “bad,” but about refinement: pocket discipline, checkdowns, situational management. Those will come with experience, and his ceiling remains as high as ever.
Goal Line Execution: More Than Just One Play
The failure near the goal line was bigger than one snap. The Texans have repeatedly bogged down in tight spaces, and Sunday was no different. Whether it’s conservative sequencing, poor blocking execution, or Stroud not pulling the trigger quickly enough, the results remain the same: empty possessions in situations where the league’s top teams thrive.
Red zone efficiency is the difference between good teams and contenders. Houston has to find creative answers — TE usage, motion, misdirection — instead of repeating predictable calls that defenders can anticipate.
Tempo at the Line of Scrimmage: Still a Problem
There was a slight improvement this week in getting to the line faster, but it wasn’t nearly enough. Too many times the Texans broke the huddle late, ambled to the line, and wasted precious seconds before the snap. The result is predictable: rushed IDs, poor communication, and delayed adjustments to defensive looks.
DeMeco has mentioned it in multiple pressers, and Stroud acknowledged it as well. Fixing this is a matter of urgency — literally. Elite offenses don’t waste time; they dictate tempo and stress defenses. Houston remains too casual.
Injuries at Slot WR and the Lack of Skillset Diversity
Another under-discussed factor in Houston’s offensive struggles is at wide receiver. Braxton Berrios and Christian Kirk — the two veterans most capable of handling the nuanced slot role — have been sidelined. Without them, the staff has been reluctant to give rookie Jaylin Noel meaningful snaps at receiver, despite his explosiveness as a returner and the flashes he showed in this game with the ball in his hands.
It’s frustrating to watch Noel break tackles and create chunk plays on special teams, then see the offense not even scheme him a handful of touches. His skillset is exactly what’s missing — a quick separator who can find soft spots and provide Stroud with an easy outlet.
Instead, Houston has been rolling with four X-types: bigger-bodied, possession-oriented receivers like Nico Collins, Xavier Hutchinson, Justin Watson, and Jayden Higgins. All bring size, catch radius, and physicality, but none win quickly with separation. That leaves Stroud throwing into tighter windows, and it shows on film — very few “easy” completions have been there the first two weeks.
Offensive coordinator Nick Caley has adapted in one sense, using the group’s size to block and support the run game. But schematically, the lack of variety has capped the passing game. Stroud hasn’t had reliable short-area separation routes to keep the chains moving.
This is where the absence of Kirk and Berrios looms largest. Both are savvy zone readers and trusted route distributors who would help Stroud tremendously on third downs and against disguised coverages. Until they return — or until Noel is trusted to contribute beyond returns — the Texans’ passing attack will feel one-dimensional.
Pass Protection: Progress in Spots, But Still Too Leaky
The Texans’ offensive line remains the defining variable for this team. Against Tampa Bay, it wasn’t a complete disaster — there were stretches of cleaner pockets and some signs of improvement — but the inconsistency once again tilted the game.
C.J. Stroud was sacked three times for 25 yards and pressured on 36.7% of his dropbacks (via Next Gen Stats). That kind of constant heat inevitably disrupted rhythm and kept the offense from ever finding full balance.
The breakdowns came from multiple angles:
Laken Tomlinson struggled again, giving up interior pressure that collapsed the pocket before Stroud could climb.
Dare Ogunbowale was a liability in pass protection, with multiple busts that directly contributed to free rushers.
Even Ed Ingram, who has been one of the bright spots up front, was beaten clean on a delayed blitz by Lavonte David — a well-schemed call by Tampa that showed how vulnerable Houston remains to disguise and timing.
It wasn’t all bad. There were series where the line picked up games and gave Stroud time, and compared to some of last year’s outings, this wasn’t the same level of breakdown. But the numbers and the tape tell the truth: the protection issues still had a major effect on the game. Until Houston can stabilize its protection, Stroud will be forced to operate under duress, and the margin for offensive execution will remain razor thin.
Defensive Line: From Slow Start to Strong Finish
The defensive front didn’t dominate from the start, but by the second half they were generating pressure and forcing Mayfield into tougher throws. Despite Tampa’s patchwork line — Cody Mauch gutting it out on a torn knee, Charlie Heck stepping in for an injured Luke Goedeke — Houston didn’t take over the game early.
But later, they turned it up. The defense played well enough to win, plain and simple. If the offense had held the ball longer than 46 snaps, the defensive front’s effort would have been enough. Instead, they were left to defend 72 plays, and by the final drive, the fatigue was obvious.
Situational Football: Clock and Game Management Concerns
This is where DeMeco Ryans and his staff continue to raise questions. The below thread on twitter has my in-depth breakdown with examples.
Chubb’s Late Touchdown
Nick Chubb’s touchdown late in the fourth quarter sparked debate. Did Tampa let him score to preserve time? If Chubb slides down after the first down, Houston has a chance to:
Burn the two-minute warning and all three Tampa timeouts.
Set up either a chip-shot field goal with no time left, or at worst, force Tampa into desperation with less time remaining.
Instead, Tampa got the ball back with enough clock to operate — and did so effectively. With the offense struggling, points felt urgent, but clock maximization matters if you want to close out games like contenders.
Contrast on Tampa’s Final Drive
The Buccaneers handled the exact same situation differently. They milked the clock and scored with essentially no time left, not giving Houston a chance to respond. That’s the mark of a veteran operation.
Timeout Mismanagement
The Texans burned a timeout defensively when the clock was already stopped, then didn’t call one later when their defense desperately needed a breather and to stop the clock. It was symptomatic of a larger issue: poor situational awareness.
Red Zone Defense: Final Play Breakdown
2nd-and-goal from the 2 with nine seconds left. Tampa had gashed Houston on the ground all game — 167 rushing yards, much of it on the same split-duo concept behind Mauch and Heck.
And yet Houston’s linebackers were set 6–7 yards off the line, 2–3 yards deep in the end zone. They were essentially conceding the run. Todd Bowles said afterward that the Texans were playing the pass. Baker Mayfield loved the call, saying if it failed, they’d just call timeout and run it again.
What’s maddening is that Tampa lined up in that look once already, Houston scouted it and called a timeout, and still came back out with linebackers deep and no adjustment. Where was the run blitz? The 5-man front? The simple awareness that Tampa had gashed you on the ground all night?
It echoes last week’s mistake against the Rams: 3rd-and-8 late, obvious pass, yet the defense bit on play action. These are teachable, but they’re persistent. And if Houston wants to become a true contender, these lapses can’t continue.
DeMeco’s 4-2-5 Attack Style: SWARM Philosophy on Display
DeMeco Ryans has built this defense around an attack-first 4-2-5 structure, where the defensive line is encouraged to “just go” — pin ears back, create disruption, and let the linebackers clean up. Coupled with the SWARM mantra, it produces the kind of identity fans love: aggressive hits, energy, and splash plays.
The upside is obvious: big sacks, turnovers, and game-changing momentum. But like any aggressive philosophy, the weaknesses are equally present — missed tackles, over-pursuit, and vulnerability to short dump passes when defenders gamble.
We saw all of that vs Tampa:
Missed tackles all game — particularly on simple RB dump passes that should have been stopped for minimal gains but turned into chunk yardage.
The most glaring moment came on the final drive, where Ryans dialed up a perfect creeper blitz: Azeez Al-Shaair mugged the line and dropped, while Henry To’oTo’o wrapped for a free lane at Baker Mayfield. The design worked — Henry had a clean shot. But instead of containing, he went all-in for the sack, missed, and Baker escaped to convert a 4th-and-10. That play should have ended the game.
Afterward, more missed tackles compounded the failure, as Tampa’s backs slipped through half-hearted arm attempts on underneath throws.
This is where situational awareness has to be drilled. In that spot, it’s not about the highlight sack. It’s about keeping Baker under 10 yards and sealing the win. This has been a theme across DeMeco’s first three years: the aggression produces energy and momentum, but the lack of balance between “big play” and “smart play” continues to haunt in critical moments.
Houston must find that equilibrium — remain aggressive, but teach defenders when to throttle down and secure the stop.
Stingley Silences Mike Evans
One bright spot in the loss was Derek Stingley Jr. The Texans’ CB1 drew the assignment on Mike Evans for most of the night and delivered:
29 of Evans’ 39 routes covered
9 targets allowed
3 receptions for 36 yards
46.5 passer rating allowed
Stingley’s sticky coverage took away Tampa’s top receiver for long stretches, and it’s exactly the kind of lockdown performance Houston needs as the rest of the defense continues to iron out missed tackles and communication. (H/T @NextGenStats)
The Bigger Picture: Playing With Their Food
DeMeco Ryans and Nick Caserio often emphasize that “every game in the NFL is close.” There’s truth to it. But it’s not the whole truth. The best teams don’t just win close — they win blowouts.
Buffalo, Detroit, Baltimore — they put opponents away. Houston, under DeMeco, too often lets opponents hang around. They play with their food. Yes, learning to win close games is valuable. But if the organizational mindset becomes “every game will be close,” the Texans will plateau below the true contenders.
Tip the Cap: Tampa Bay and Baker Mayfield
As much as this game exposed Houston’s flaws, there’s also an element of needing to tip the cap to the Buccaneers. Todd Bowles and his staff came in with a smart plan: open with four-man rushes to neutralize Stroud’s blitz success from last week, then adjust with pressure once the flow shifted. They also managed the clock masterfully down the stretch — the exact contrast to Houston’s struggles in that area. Josh Grizzard adjusted well to losing his right tackle and hit Houston with a heavy does of quick game and screens to offset the rush as well.
And then there’s Baker Mayfield. He’s playing some of the best football of his career right now, leading an offense loaded with talent at receiver and backed by a defense that doesn’t get nearly enough respect. Mayfield’s poise on the final drive — including escaping Henry To’oTo’o’s clean shot on 4th-and-10 — was the kind of difference-making moment that wins games in this league. The Bucs aren’t just plucky; they’re a legit, underrated contender in the NFC, and Baker deserves credit for the way he’s playing.
Revisiting Preseason Concerns
This loss also reopens some of the questions fans (myself included) had going into the year. They aren’t fully answered yet, but they aren’t fully vindicated either. They’re in “wait-and-see” territory.
Nick Caley’s Hire
I was initially skeptical about the Caley hire. My preference was for a more spread-style attack with tempo (like Chip Kelly) — something that could negate shaky offensive line play and fully maximize C.J. Stroud’s strengths. It’s no mystery why Stroud thrives in the two-minute drill: it naturally incorporates tempo, spacing, quick decisions, and rhythm.
Over the offseason, I bought in after hearing from Caley, Stroud, and DeMeco Ryans in pressers, with words like “adapt” and “adjust” giving me confidence. I’m not abandoning belief in Caley now, but I am a little less confident than I was. Part of me suspects he’s been forced to “adapt” around injuries to Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios, leaning into heavy X-receiver packages and involving them in the run game as best he can. Or maybe this really is what he wants the offense to be. I’m waiting to see how things look once Kirk, Berrios, and eventually Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins are integrated more.
Receiver Room Diversity
Another preseason concern was the lack of skillset variety. Without Tank Dell, there isn’t a true Z-type receiver who can bridge the gap between the big-body X’s and the quick slot types. Instead, Houston has rolled with four X’s, all of similar builds, which has limited separation and left Stroud without easy outlets. Whether it’s using Kirk more in 2-WR sets or expanding Higgins’ and Noel's roles, this is something to monitor closely.
Run Defense and the Nose Tackle Question
Finally, there’s the defensive interior. Many fans pointed out the Texans never added a true dominant 1-tech run-stopping nose tackle. Instead, they chose to roll with veterans like Foley Fatukasi, banking on value and scheme maximization. That worked to an extent last year, but after watching Tampa run for 169 yards — many right up the gut — it’s fair to wonder if that approach will hold up all season. DeMeco has a track record of getting the most out of his guys, but this is a roster construction choice that will continue to be under the microscope.
For now, these concerns are still in the “not proven right, not proven wrong” bucket. Time — and how the staff adapts — will provide the real answers.
Offensive Line Construction: Bargain Shopping or Smart Value?
Another concern resurfacing is how the Texans addressed the offensive line this offseason. Interior offensive line (IOL) was the glaring hole, yet the front office essentially bargain-shopped the way they did at defensive tackle. Instead of investing heavily, they signed veterans like Ed Ingram and Laken Tomlinson, hoping coaching and scheme would cover the gaps.
I’ve argued for months that on the OL, coaching and scheme are paramount — fix the mental mistakes, get everyone on the same page, and veterans can thrive. Week 1 seemed to prove that point: the Texans communicated better, and limited errors. But Week 2 felt like a regression, and it reopens the original question: was I too quick to buy in?
To be fair, Ed Ingram has played well so far and may prove to be a solid value signing. But Laken Tomlinson has struggled, and if he continues to do so, the line once again becomes a liability. Like the IDL approach, Houston banked on system fits and coaching rather than raw investment, and we’ll see if that gamble pays off over a full season.
Urgency: Will DeMeco Be Quicker to Act?
One lingering question with DeMeco Ryans is whether he’ll be quicker this year to make the tough calls. In 2023, there were times where he seemed too patient — especially with players like Kenyon Green, who stayed in the lineup despite struggles until injury forced a change. Depth played a role, but it also looked like loyalty was winning out over urgency.
This year, we’re already seeing signs that DeMeco has adjusted:
Shaq Mason/Laremy Tunsil decisions: He cut Mason and even traded Tunsil, showing he won’t be married to veterans if the fit or production isn’t there.
Dameon Pierce: After Week 1, Pierce not only underperformed in the run game but hurt the Texans in the kick return game under the new kickoff rules (knuckleballs landing in the “landing zone” then bouncing into the end zone are spotted at the 20, not the 35). That field position swing was costly. DeMeco responded by saying they’d “lean in” on Nick Chubb more — and in Week 2, Pierce was inactive.
Dare Ogunbowale’s role: After Week 2, DeMeco went a step further, saying Chubb needs more work on 3rd downs because of his pass protection. That feels like the clearest signal yet that Dare’s days as the default passing-down back are numbered.
The question now is whether this urgency will extend to the offensive line. Laken Tomlinson has struggled badly while Ed Ingram has held up well. If Laken continues to falter, will DeMeco move quicker to insert Juice Scruggs rather than repeating last year’s “too little, too late” with Kenyon Green?
Urgency isn’t just about sending a message to players — it’s about protecting your quarterback and seizing wins in a league where margins are razor thin. Through two weeks, DeMeco looks more willing to pull levers than he did as a rookie head coach. The coming weeks will prove whether that trend holds.
Outlook: Urgency at 0-2, but Season Far from Lost
At 0-2, the Texans are in a hole. History says only about 12% of teams who start 0-2 make the playoffs. That number alone raises the urgency. But it’s not new territory for Houston — the franchise has clawed back from 0-2 to make the postseason three times before.
It’s also important to keep perspective:
Both losses were close games, decided by a handful of plays.
Both came against strong NFC opponents — meaning Houston hasn’t yet dropped an AFC tiebreaker.
Both were against teams with elite quarterbacks, loaded receiver groups, and solid defenses.
The margin for error shrinks every week, and the Texans can’t afford to keep “learning” the same lessons. The upcoming matchup in Jacksonville now looms large. A loss there would not only dig the hole deeper but also drop a critical AFC South game. A win, on the other hand, steadies the season and keeps Houston’s playoff path intact.
The Texans still have the talent, the quarterback, and the coach to get this right. But urgency is real now, and next week in Jacksonville will tell us a lot about whether this team is truly ready to rise from 0-2 into contender status.
Final Word
This wasn’t just a loss. It was a reminder of what separates good teams from great ones.
The defense played well enough to win. The offense let them down with predictable tendencies, wasted 3rd downs, and failure to capitalize on gifts. The coaching staff compounded it with clock mismanagement, questionable late-game awareness, and continued struggles with tempo at the line of scrimmage.
The Texans have the talent to contend. But to get there, they must:
Break offensive tells (under center vs. gun, Dare package, 3rd-down personnel).
Value conversions over explosives in short yardage.
Tighten situational management, especially clock and timeout usage.
Help the defense by sustaining drives and balancing snap counts.
Show urgency in making changes — whether it’s phasing out Dare, giving Chubb and Woody Marks bigger roles on 3rd down, or moving on from underperforming veterans like Laken Tomlinson.
Until those fixes happen, Houston will keep hovering in the “competitive but not closing” tier — a team always close, but not yet finishing like a true contender.
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