The Super Bowl, The “What If,” and the Problem We Can’t Ignore About the Texans

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The Seahawks beat the Patriots in the Super Bowl.

And for Texans fans, the immediate reaction was obvious:

“We should’ve been there.”

Houston lost to the Patriots in the Divisional Round. The Patriots went on to win the AFC and reach the Super Bowl. C.J. Stroud threw four interceptions in the first half in New England. It was the worst half of his young career. He was the biggest reason the Texans lost that game.

That part isn’t complicated.

But here’s where the conversation needs to mature.

Yes, Stroud lost that game.

But that game — and the Super Bowl — exposed something deeper that isn’t as automatic as people want to believe.

It Wasn’t Just Stroud

Stroud played poorly. Even independent of protection, he made bad decisions. Weather affected him. He pressed. He forced throws.

But we can’t ignore what else showed up.

The common denominator in nearly every Texans loss this season?

Dominant interior defensive lines.

The Broncos.

The Patriots.

The Seahawks.

The Rams.

All four had elite interior defensive fronts.

And in those games:

• Houston had no run game.

• The pocket collapsed from the middle.

• Pressure came directly in Stroud’s face.

• The offense became one-dimensional.

  
  

Nearly all of Houston’s losses came when they faced strong interior defensive lines.

That’s not coincidence.

That’s a blueprint.

Would It Have Been Different vs Seattle?

Let’s push the hypothetical further.

If Houston beats New England…

They still have to beat Denver in the AFC Championship — in bad weather — against a team with a dominant interior defensive line.

Even with a backup quarterback on the other side, that game would not have been automatic.

And if Houston somehow gets to the Super Bowl against Seattle?

We already saw that matchup earlier in the season.

The Texans had ample opportunities near the goal line and in short yardage to make it a one-score game.

And what happened?

They got stoned.

Inferior interior offensive line play versus a very good Seahawks defensive front. Over and over.

Combine that with a bad Stroud performance, and the game slipped.

So when people say, “We could've beaten Seattle,” it’s worth pausing.

Maybe.

But maybe not.

Because the exact same structural weakness showed up.

The Super Bowl Blueprint: What Seattle Did Right

Watching the Super Bowl, one thing stood out.

The Seahawks didn’t ask Sam Darnold to win the game.

They ran the ball.

They played clean.

Darnold did not play his best football. But he had zero turnovers. He did enough. And they leaned on their defense.

That’s the recipe Houston needs in the playoffs next year.

And frankly — it’s the recipe they used successfully all season before the playoffs.

Here’s the crazy part.

Darnold led the league in turnovers during the regular season with 20.

In the playoffs? Zero.

Now, some of that is probably variance. Maybe a few turnover-worthy plays didn’t become turnovers.

But most of it?

Discipline.

Mindset.

A strong run game.

A play caller protecting his quarterback.

That’s growth.

Scheme Parallels: Patriots and Texans

There’s another layer here that matters.

The Patriots’ offensive coordinator is Josh McDaniels.

The Texans’ offensive coordinator is Nick Caley.

Similar tree. Similar philosophy.

In the Super Bowl, we saw something important:

Seattle was able to sit in two-high shells and still stop the Patriots’ inside run identity because their interior defensive line was dominant enough to do it without committing extra bodies.

That forced the Patriots into a one-dimensional passing game.

Sound familiar?

That’s what happened to Houston in several of their biggest losses.

Seattle may have shown the league a blueprint for slowing that style of offense next season — including potentially Houston’s.

Now, not every team has the personnel. Not every team has Mike Macdonald.

But it’s something to monitor.

Is it a red herring? Maybe.

Is it something Houston needs to get out in front of? Absolutely.

The Cold Weather Problem

There’s another uncomfortable truth.

Outdoor, cold-weather playoff games have hurt this offense.

For whatever reason, rhythm disappears. Execution dips. The run game suffers.

That has to improve.

Or Houston needs to prioritize earning the lowest possible playoff seed to avoid that scenario.

It’s worth noting:

Both the Seahawks and Patriots did not make the playoffs the year prior. That likely gave them easier schedules, helping them secure the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds respectively this year.

Houston finished second in the division and could see a similar dynamic next year.

Seeding matters.

Defensive Head Coaches Still Win

There’s a narrative in today’s NFL that you need an offensive genius to win a Super Bowl.

But the last decade has been filled with defensive-led champions.

The Seahawks.

The Eagles.

Cotrary to what many may think, a number of the Chiefs teams.

The Rams.

The Buccaneers.

Multiple others.

Both Super Bowl teams this year were led by defensive head coaches.

The Texans are, too.

Houston returns nearly every major piece on defense and projects to be even better next year.

That matters.

Because if the defense continues to ascend into elite territory…

Then marginal improvement from the offense in Year 2 under Nick Caley — paired with upgrades along the interior offensive line as well as potentially running back and tight end — could be enough.

Not a dramatic leap.

Just marginal improvement.

That’s the difference between Divisional exit and real contention.

So… Were the Texans “Close”?

Closer than people think.

But not automatic.

Stroud lost that game.

But dominant interior defensive lines exposed something deeper.

The Broncos.

The Patriots.

The Seahawks.

The Rams.

That’s the pattern.

If Houston fixes that — interior protection, short yardage run game, handling two-high shells without becoming one-dimensional — then the leap is real.

If not?

Next January could look similar.

The Super Bowl didn’t just show us what Houston missed.

It showed us exactly what Houston must solve.

And the good news?

They don’t need a rebuild.

They need refinement in the trenches and discipline in big moments.

That’s not fantasy.

That’s actionable.