Houston Texans 2025 Schedule Breakdown: A Calmer Spotlight, a Sharper Edge, and a Clearer Path
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The NFL schedule release has come and gone, and for the Houston Texans, the 2025 season offers something many fans welcome with open arms: a reprieve from the media circus and primetime gauntlet that accompanied last year’s breakout campaign.
Gone are the seven standalone games that had fans and players dragging through the holidays. This time? Just four scheduled primetime matchups—potentially five if Week 17 vs. the Chargers gets flexed. It’s not a snub. It’s a blessing.
From the High to the Humble—and Back Again
Last year was the Texans’ "arrival." The CJ Stroud media tour, the "we're next" attitude, and national hype were intoxicating. But when the offense sputtered and the season ended short of an AFC title game, it was a reality check.
This year’s schedule reflects that recalibration. The spotlight has dimmed slightly—just enough to allow DeMeco Ryans and company to reset, reload, and go hunting.
And let’s be clear: this team is better. Top to bottom, the roster is deeper. The coaching staff, specifically the offensive side, is upgraded. New OC Nick Caley brings a McVay/Patriots hybrid scheme that’s built around players, not plug-and-play rigidity. That alone could unlock a Texans offense that left far too many points on the field in 2024.
Key Takeaways from the 2025 Texans Schedule
Only four scheduled primetime games:Week 2 (vs. Bucs, MNF), Week 7 (at Seahawks, MNF), Week 12 (vs. Bills, TNF), and Week 14 (at Chiefs, SNF). Week 17 at Chargers could be flexed, making it five.
An early bye (Week 6) followed by a Monday night game after it (Week 7 in Seattle), giving them an extended break. While earlier than ideal, it comes after a tough early five-game stretch. It is also somewhat offset by a "mini-bye" after the Bills Thursday night game in Week 12.
Division games are back-loaded:The Texans play 4 of 6 AFC South games Weeks 10-17.
Travel stretches are real, but manageable:The Texans do have a few long-distance trips this season—twice to Los Angeles, plus Baltimore, Seattle, and Kansas City—but those road games are evenly distributed throughout the year. Crucially, they’re buffered by byes or home games in between. It should also be noted that games in Los Angeles are known to be taken over by opossing fanbases, lacking true homefield advantage for the home teams. The only true back-to-back road stretch without a break comes in Weeks 13 and 14, when Houston travels to Indianapolis and then Kansas City.
They also catch a break when it comes to cold-weather scheduling. Their road game in Baltimore is in early October, dodging the typical December chill. And while the Week 14 trip to Kansas City on December 7th could bring cold conditions, historical weather data suggests it likely won't be frigid. The average high in Kansas City that time of year is 44.9°F with lows around 26.7°F, and only a 7.9% chance of snow according to the National Weather Service.
Last year’s late December game at Arrowhead was played in similar conditions—low 30s and sunny—which gave the Texans a taste of winter ball. Playing there a couple of weeks earlier this season should serve as an ideal cold-weather tune-up, should the Texans find themselves on the road in January.
Home slate is manageable:The Texans’ toughest home games are Buffalo, San Francisco and Tampa. The rest—Denver, Arizona, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indy, and the Raiders—are all winnable. While they start the season with 4 of their first 6 on the road with a bye sprinkled in, they then have three consecutive home games weeks 8-10 vs SF, DEN & JAX.
Game-by-Game Breakdown & Storylines to Watch
Week 1 at Rams
Storylines: This opener comes packed with intrigue. It marks Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley’s first game since leaving the Rams to take the play-calling reins in Houston. Caley, a key part of Sean McVay’s offensive staff last season, now faces his former boss in what could be an early chess match between two minds who know each other well. Will Caley have some inside tips to offer DeMeco Ryans on how to counter McVay’s offense?
There’s also familiarity from last year’s joint training camp practices between these two teams—valuable reps that gave both sides a close look at each other’s personnel and tendencies. CJ Stroud, who has openly praised Matthew Stafford as one of the quarterbacks he studies and admires most, will get to face off against the veteran in a matchup that pits one rising star against a Super Bowl champ.
Tough front seven test: It’s a significant early challenge for Houston’s new-look offensive line. The Rams have assembled one of the more talented and aggressive front sevens in the league, featuring Braden Fiske, Poona Ford, Kobie Turner, Byron Young, and Jared Verse. It’s a group that plays fast, physical, and smart—built to create chaos up front and disrupt timing-based offenses.
If the Texans want to start strong, they’ll need to win in the trenches and keep Stroud clean. That won’t be easy, especially in a loud road setting against a unit that thrives on pressure.
Prediction: This is no soft landing to open the season. The Rams are a legitimate NFC contender—don’t forget they had the eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles on the ropes in last year’s playoffs. In a snowy road game in Philly, Los Angeles had a chance to win it on the final play before falling just short. That battle-tested experience makes them a dangerous Week 1 opponent.
Still, Houston has its own advantages. Caley’s familiarity with McVay’s system could help DeMeco Ryans craft a game plan with some inside knowledge. And if Stroud finds a rhythm early, this game is absolutely within reach. But to stay grounded, we’ll call it a narrow setback to start the year:
Result – Loss 0-1, but winnable.
Week 2 vs. Buccaneers (MNF)
Storylines: This is the rematch of “the game that made CJ Stroud a star.” In 2023, Stroud delivered one of the most iconic rookie moments in recent NFL memory—engineering a game-winning drive with just 46 seconds and no timeouts, capping it with a touchdown strike to Tank Dell. That performance didn’t just win the game; it launched Stroud into the national spotlight and proved he was built for the big stage.
Now, under the lights of Monday Night Football, Stroud gets his homecoming moment against the same team he lit up in '23—but with a lot more eyes watching.
There’s another interesting twist to this one: Stroud will face off against former Ohio State teammate Emeka Egbuka, now a rookie wide receiver for Tampa Bay. Many Texans fans were hopeful Egbuka would join Stroud in Houston during the draft, and now he’ll try to make his own statement from the other sideline. The reunion adds another layer of intrigue to a matchup already packed with storylines.
Coaching transition in Tampa: Despite having offensive firepower—Egbuka, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, Baker Mayfield, and a strong supporting cast—the Buccaneers are once again breaking in a first-time offensive coordinator. That’s the third consecutive season Tampa is starting over at the play-caller spot, and even with talent, continuity matters. I expect some early-season growing pains as Josh Grizzard puts his fingerprints on the offense.
Outlook: Houston is the more stable team here. Stroud is comfortable, surrounded by weapons, and supported by a defense that should thrive against any early missteps from Tampa’s reworked offense. If the Texans start fast, this one could tilt in their favor quickly.
Prediction: CJ Stroud gets his Monday night moment—this time in front of a rocking NRG Stadium. Expect fireworks early and a strong bounce-back after a tough opener in L.A.
Result: Win. Texans even it up at 1-1.
Week 3 at Jaguars
Storylines: The Texans head to Jacksonville in what’s shaping up to be one of the more emotionally charged matchups of the season. While Trevor Lawrence still carries national hype, I’m just not that high on him. He’s certainly talented, and wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. (BTJ) looks like a future star. But we’ve already seen how this plays out—Lawrence missed throws all over the field in both matchups against the Texans last year, and his accuracy in big moments continues to be inconsistent. Until he proves otherwise, Houston has his number.
This game also carries extra juice. It’s Christian Kirk’s first time facing his former team since joining the Texans, and it’s the first meeting since linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair was suspended for a controversial late hit on a sliding Lawrence. That moment sparked debate and bad blood between both teams—and you can bet it’ll be remembered on both sidelines.
There’s also been a lot of offseason buzz around Travis Hunter, the ultra-talented two-way rookie from Colorado, who is expected to make an immediate impact for Jacksonville. But I’m not convinced that dominance will come this early. While his ceiling is high, he’s still raw in many areas—especially as a route-runner on offense. He’ll face not one but two major challenges in this game:
On defense, he’ll be asked to cover a physical and skilled wide receiver group that includes Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins—both of whom are physical and thrive at the catch point.
On offense, he’ll run right into the teeth of the Texans' secondary, where Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter will welcome him to the league with press coverage, leverage discipline, and physicality he hasn’t consistently seen.
This one has intensity, storylines, and long-term divisional implications—and the Texans should be locked in.
Prediction: Houston’s defense shows up again, Lawrence struggles under pressure, and the Texans handle business on the road.
Result: Texans improve to 2-1.
Week 4 vs. Titans
Storylines: This one should feel personal for a few reasons. Rookie quarterback Cam Ward—shoutout to West Columbia and UIW—returns to Texas for what could be a “welcome to the NFL” type of moment against a fast, disciplined Texans defense. Ward’s a high-upside talent with big-play ability, but asking a first-year QB to operate cleanly against DeMeco Ryans’ pressure packages and disguised coverages is a tall task.
This game also marks another significant challenge for Houston’s offensive line—especially on the interior. Tennessee’s front is built to wreck pockets from the inside out, anchored by T’Vondre Sweat and Jeffrey Simmons. Both are capable of collapsing the pocket quickly and forcing CJ Stroud off his spot. With the Texans still looking to solidify their guard-center-guard trio, this is a matchup that could expose weaknesses if communication and leverage aren’t on point.
Prediction: Despite the interior challenge, this is a game Houston should control. The Texans are the deeper, more experienced team, and unless Cam Ward plays completely out of his mind, the talent gap should show.
Result: Win. Texans move to 3-1.
Week 5 at Ravens
Storylines: This trip to Baltimore is more than just another tough road game—it’s an early litmus test for where this 2025 Texans team truly stands. Under DeMeco Ryans, the Texans are 0-3 against the Ravens, and each loss has told a different story.
In Week 1 of 2023, it was CJ Stroud’s first career start—a gritty effort in Baltimore that ended in a 25-9 loss.
That same season, the Texans returned to Baltimore in the AFC Divisional Round and fell short again, despite a valiant defensive performance.
Then on Christmas Day last year, in front of a national audience, the Ravens delivered a blowout loss in Houston that exposed just how wide the gap still was between the two contenders.
This game is a chance to see whether that gap has closed.
Adding another layer of intrigue, this will also be the first time the Texans face former franchise great DeAndre Hopkins in a Ravens uniform. The emotions of seeing DHop on the opposite sideline will be real, but this team has its eyes forward.
Tough road environment: Playing in Baltimore is never easy, and with Lamar Jackson still under center, the Ravens remain one of the NFL’s toughest outs at home. The crowd, the speed of that defense—all make this a tough ask, especially if the Texans don’t start fast.
Prediction: The Texans are closing the gap—but they aren’t quite there yet. Expect a more competitive showing than in past years, but this feels like one they let slip late.
Result: Loss. Texans drop to 3-2.
Week 6: Bye
Week 7 at Seahawks (MNF)
Storylines: On paper, this feels like an odd choice for Monday Night Football. Seattle is in the early stages of a reset, rolling with Sam Darnold at quarterback, a second-year head coach still gaining his footing, and an offense that’s struggled to find a consistent identity. The Seahawks also drafted Jalen Milroe, the dynamic dual-threat quarterback from Alabama. While he’s raw as a passer, his athleticism and playmaking ability could earn him snaps—especially if Darnold struggles early in the season.
CJ Stroud vs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Buckeye Reunion:
This marks the first NFL matchup between former Ohio State teammates C.J. Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The two had electric chemistry in college—highlighted by JSN’s record-setting Rose Bowl performance with Stroud throwing five touchdowns. Now, they'll be on opposite sidelines in a primetime Monday Night Football showdown.
Tough environment—but a growth opportunity: Lumen Field is one of the loudest and most difficult stadiums to play in, particularly under the lights in primetime. And while the Texans haven’t always shown discipline in hostile road environments—especially early in games—they’ve improved in that area over time. This game will be another opportunity to prove they can start fast, play clean, and handle noise and adversity without self-inflicted wounds.
Prediction: Whether it’s Darnold or Milroe under center, the Texans should be in control. Houston’s defense should rattle either quarterback, and if the offense protects the ball and executes in the red zone, they’ll take care of business. This is a game good teams win—and the Texans believe they’re one of them.
Result: Win. Texans move to 4-2.
Week 8 vs. 49ers
Storylines: This one’s personal for a lot of reasons. DeMeco Ryans returns to face the franchise where he began his NFL coaching career, spending six seasons (2017–2022) with the 49ers before taking over as Houston’s head coach. While Ryans was likely never in offensive meetings, his time in San Francisco gave him years of firsthand exposure to Kyle Shanahan’s scheme—both by observing it daily and game-planning against it on the practice field. That kind of familiarity with tendencies, formations, and play sequencing is valuable, even if it came from the defensive side of the ball.
There’s also familiarity in the defensive staff across the field. Robert Saleh, who was the 49ers’ defensive coordinator during the early part of Ryans’ tenure and helped mentor his rise from quality control to linebackers coach, is back in San Francisco as DC. This marks the first time Ryans will face both Shanahan and Saleh on the same sideline—two coaches he worked closely with and knows extremely well.
And while Houston spent the past two seasons running a version of the Shanahan offense under Bobby Slowik, this game may feel like a symbolic shift. With Nick Caley now calling plays, the Texans are finally operating a scheme built around their personnel—not force-fitting themselves into someone else’s system. This is a different team, and this game is a chance to show it.
Player reunions & familiar faces:
Laken Tomlinson, now a Texan, spent most of his NFL career with the 49ers. Whether or not he’s starting by Week 8, he knows what it’s like to face that San Francisco front and should bring valuable insight during game prep.
Jimmie Ward will be fired up for this one. The veteran safety spent nine seasons in San Francisco and had a tense ending to his time under Shanahan, largely over disagreements about his role. This is his first shot to line up across from his former coach—and he’ll be ready.
And in a fun footnote, the Texans will go up against John Weeks, their legendary former long snapper who now holds that role for the 49ers after spending 17 seasons in Houston.
Matchup edge: This is the type of matchup DeMeco Ryans lives for. He knows Shanahan’s offense, he’s seen the physicality of their system up close, and now he has the defensive personnel to counter it. The Texans' front seven is fast and violent—built to destroy rhythm and punish zone runs—and if CJ Stroud and the offense find a groove, Houston will be in position to take control.
Prediction: DeMeco will be dialed in for this one, and you can expect a playoff-level atmosphere at NRG. The Texans are healthier, deeper, and hungrier than they were a year ago—and they’ve got the right man leading them into a statement game.
Result: Win. Texans improve to 5-2.
Week 9 vs. Broncos
Storylines:This is the second meeting between these teams since some subtle but pointed offseason drama a couple of years ago. When the Texans were searching for a new head coach after the 2022 season, DeMeco Ryans was reportedly Denver’s top target. Instead, Ryans chose to return to Houston, where his playing career began—and the Broncos pivoted to Sean Payton. Not long after, reports surfaced that Payton had criticized the Texans’ ownership structure during his interview, calling out what he viewed as dysfunction at the top of the organization.
Safe to say, there’s still a little edge to this matchup.
The first meeting after all of that took place in 2023 during CJ Stroud’s rookie year—a game the Texans won. One of the most memorable moments came when Stroud stood up to Broncos linebacker Alex Singleton, who had been getting extra chippy throughout the contest. Stroud confronted him directly, setting a tone of toughness and command that quickly endeared him to the locker room and fan base. This rematch brings back a lot of that energy.
QB Battle & Defensive Showcase: Bo Nix is coming off a solid rookie season, showing maturity, mobility, and flashes of command in Sean Payton’s offense. But to me, he overperformed relative to what the film showed. While his legs helped extend plays and bail him out of pressure, his ball placement and consistency under duress were shaky. Against a DeMeco Ryans-led defense that thrives on disguises and timely pressure, this feels like a spot where that regression could hit hard.
Look for the Texans to test Nix’s processing early and often. This defense is built to punish hesitation—and if Nix doesn’t get into rhythm quickly, it could spiral.
Perimeter Battle: This game also features one of the premier CB matchups in the league—Pat Surtain II vs. Derek Stingley Jr., even if they’re not lining up against the same receivers. Both are lockdown specialists, and both will have chances to shut down explosive plays. It’s a great showcase of technical refinement, athleticism, and scheme trust. Whoever impacts the game more might tilt the momentum for their team.
Prediction: There’s history here, and there’s emotion—but the Texans are deeper, more stable, and built to win this type of game. The defense controls the tempo, Stroud protects the football, and Houston defends home turf again.
Result: Win. Texans improve to 6-2.
Week 10 vs. Jaguars
The Texans have swept the Jags before—and they will again.
Prediction: Win. 7-2.
Week 11 at Titans
Cam Ward late in the season could be dangerous, but Houston’s front should rattle him.
Prediction: Win. 8-2.
Week 12 vs. Bills (TNF)
Storylines: The Texans and Bills square off in a rematch of one of Houston’s most dominant defensive performances in recent memory. In last year’s meeting at NRG, DeMeco Ryans’ defense made the eventual NFL MVP, Josh Allen, look completely out of sorts—completing just 9 of 30 passes in what many called the worst start of his career. The Texans’ defense flew around, disguised coverages, and punished every mistake. That game became a defining moment for Ryans’ SWARM identity.
Now, the stakes are even higher. This year’s rematch is in prime time on Thursday Night Football, back in Houston, where the defense was borderline elite last season. Ryans has consistently proven he can craft elite game plans at home against the league’s best quarterbacks—frustrating Josh Allen, Jared Goff (five INTs), Tua Tagovailoa, and others with disguised looks, late movement, and physical front-seven pressure.
The key will be health. Last year, the Texans’ defense was banged up late in the year, especially in the secondary, and it limited their ability to stay aggressive. If Houston enters this one healthy on defense, they’ll have every opportunity to replicate last season’s success.
Outlook: This is a statement game. The kind of game that can swing playoff seeding, national perception, and locker-room belief. Houston matches up well and has the defensive structure to make Allen uncomfortable again—but this Bills team is still dangerous, and it’s hard to expect another meltdown from their star QB.
Prediction: This is a winnable game—and one Houston can win—but to keep expectations grounded, we’ll call it a toss-up and lean toward a narrow loss on a short week.
Result: Loss. Texans fall to 8-3.
Week 13 at Colts
Storylines: This is the Texans’ first matchup of the season against the Colts—Houston’s biggest rival in the AFC South over the last two years. While the Jaguars may get more national buzz, it’s been Indy pushing Houston in critical divisional moments. That said, the Texans have owned this building under CJ Stroud.
Stroud is 3-1 in his career vs. the Colts, including 2-0 at Lucas Oil Stadium, where the crowd noise and dome conditions create one of the tougher environments in the league. He’s been composed, efficient, and in control in both road wins—and he’ll be walking in with more weapons and protection this time around.
As for Indy’s quarterback situation? Who knows. Anthony Richardson’s up and down 2024 season didn’t surprise me—he’s a gifted athlete, but raw and inconsistent as a passer, exactly what I expected. While the Colts may hope he’s developed into the guy, my bet is that Daniel Jones, who was signed as insurance, is the one starting by Week 13. Jones brings experience but hasn’t proven to be much more than a replacement-level starter when the structure breaks down.
The Colts do have a few things going for them:
Shane Steichen is a sharp offensive mind who has crafted strong run-first schemes.
Jonathan Taylor, when healthy, is a top-5 back.
Their offensive line can still move people off the ball.
But outside of those core elements, their roster isn’t nearly as complete or balanced as Houston’s. They lack the top-end defensive versatility and offensive explosiveness to keep up in a four-quarter battle—especially if Stroud gets going early.
There’s also a fun reunion angle here with linebacker E.J. Speed, who signed with the Texans this offseason after playing the first five years of his career in Indy. His past banter with CJ Stroud and Zaire Franklin was well-documented and playful—but don’t expect him to take it lightly on his old squad.
Prediction: Houston has the better quarterback, deeper roster, and more complete identity on both sides of the ball. This is a game playoff teams win—even in hostile environments.
Result: Win. Texans improve to 9-3.
Week 14 at Chiefs (SNF)
Storylines: This Sunday Night Football showdown is much more than a marquee game—it’s a potential playoff dress rehearsal for both teams. With postseason seeding likely in play and both squads positioned as AFC contenders, this late-season primetime matchup is a great test to see exactly where the Texans stand as the playoff picture sharpens.
The Texans lost twice to the Chiefs in a five-week span last season, including the AFC Divisional Round in Kansas City. Both games were narrow, competitive battles—despite Houston’s offense struggling to finish drives. What stood out in both losses was Houston’s ability to physically and mentally stay in the fight on the road, in one of the loudest stadiums in the league, against the reigning champs. That experience, while painful, laid the groundwork for this year’s growth.
Now, CJ Stroud gets another chance to go toe-to-toe with Patrick Mahomes under the lights. The football world will be locked in to watch one of the NFL’s best young quarterbacks against the standard at the position. It’s also a coaching chess match: DeMeco Ryans vs. Andy Reid, who once coached Ryans during his playing days in Philadelphia. That familiarity and respect adds another layer to the stakes.
On the field, there are several compelling reunion storylines:
Justin Watson, now a Texan, will face his former team for the first time after spending several years catching passes from Mahomes.
And Charles Omenihu, a former Texans defensive lineman who had a public falling out with the organization and has been critical of his time in Houston, will get another shot to show up against his old team in a high-stakes setting.
Weather Watch: This December 7th game in Kansas City will likely bring cold conditions—potentially a small taste of what the Texans could face in a road playoff game. Much like last year’s late-season matchup at Arrowhead, it should serve as valuable preparation.
Prediction: I genuinely think the Texans can win this game. It’ll all come down to where the offense is at this point in the season under Nick Caley. I’m not worried about the defense—DeMeco Ryans’ unit showed last year they can contain Patrick Mahomes, holding him in check in two separate matchups.
The real difference will be health and offensive execution. Injuries at key spots—particularly to Jalen Pitre and Jimmie Ward in the secondary, and to wide receivers Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs—played a major role in both losses to Kansas City last year. This time around, the Texans have far more depth at both safety and wide receiver, which could prove critical in a close game.
This is a very winnable game. But for the sake of not being delusional, I’ll call it a close loss for now—but certainly not the end of anything.
Result: Loss. Texans fall to 9-4.
Week 15 vs. Cardinals
Storylines: This has trap game potential written all over it—but I’m just not that high on the Cardinals this year. Under Jonathan Gannon, Arizona has hovered around average to below-average since his arrival, and while Kyler Murray has flashed, he still hasn’t proven to be the franchise guy many expected. The consistency just hasn’t been there, and until he puts together a full, high-level season, it’s hard to trust this team in big spots—especially on the road against a playoff-caliber defense.
This is another rematch from 2023, a game the Texans won 21-16 at home in a scrappy, grind-it-out performance. Houston didn’t play particularly clean football that day, but still managed to hold on—and this year’s Texans team is deeper and more experienced, especially on offense.
Reunions and Buckeye Bonds:
Christian Kirk will face off against the team that drafted him, spending the first four years of his career in Arizona before breaking out in Jacksonville.
CJ Stroud will line up against Marvin Harrison Jr., his former Ohio State teammate and one of the most talented receivers to enter the league in years. That will be a fun battle of mutual respect and pride, even if they’re never on the field at the same time.
And there’s a unique off-field connection too—Stroud will also face Paris Johnson Jr., Arizona’s starting offensive tackle and fellow Buckeye. Their moms, Kim Stroud and Monica Daniels, co-host The Mom's POV Show, a podcast offering behind-the-scenes insight into raising high-level athletes. The Buckeye family runs deep in this one.
Outlook: Arizona has some dangerous pieces—Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, and Budda Baker among them—but Houston is the more complete and better-coached team. The Cardinals lack the depth across the roster to keep pace with a playoff-caliber Texans squad at home, especially if the defense plays to its standard.
Prediction: This could be one of those "closer than it should be" types of games if Houston isn’t locked in—but talent wins out. The Texans handle business at home and keep themselves firmly in the postseason race.
Prediction: Win. Texans improve to 10-4.
Week 16 vs. Raiders
Storylines: This late-season matchup could be sneakily tricky. The Raiders are likely hovering around the .500 mark, fighting for their playoff lives—and they’ll bring some new faces and fresh energy into NRG Stadium.
Las Vegas is now led by longtime Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll and new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly—a name that had some traction in Houston’s OC search this past offseason. I was intrigued by the fit, but the price tag was simply too high for the Texans’ liking. Now, Kelly brings his up-tempo system to the Raiders with a retooled offensive core that includes Geno Smith at quarterback. I actually think Geno is underrated and can operate efficiently in the right structure, especially with play-action and tempo—both staples of Kelly’s system.
The Raiders also boast rookie RB Ashton Jeanty, a dynamic and explosive talent who could be one of the most productive backs in the league by the time this game rolls around. But the timing here plays into Houston’s hands—Week 16, after the wear and tear of a full NFL season, is not ideal for a young back still adjusting to the physical toll of the league.
Key Matchups:
Maxx Crosby vs. the Texans OL will be a headline battle. Crosby is one of the league’s best disruptors off the edge and will demand attention all game long.
On the other side, Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. will look to remind the league that Houston has an elite edge duo of its own. Anderson is likely to join Crosby and Hunter in that top-paid pass rusher tier as soon as he's eligible for an extension next year. Expect both lines to be fired up for this one.
Outlook: While it has some Cardinals-esque trap game energy, I think the Texans are the more connected team—with better chemistry, more roster depth, and a coaching staff that has earned trust in high-leverage moments. The Raiders may hang around for a bit, but Houston should find separation as the game progresses.
Prediction: This one may be tighter than fans want it to be, but the Texans take care of business down the stretch.
Result: Win. Texans improve to 11-4.
Week 17 at Chargers (TBD / likely Saturday)
Storylines: This is a rematch of last year’s Wild Card playoff rout, when the Texans dismantled the Chargers at NRG Stadium in one of their most dominant and physical wins of the season. Houston's defense frustrated Justin Herbert from start to finish, and CJ Stroud played a clean, efficient game to cap off a one-sided victory.
This time, the matchup shifts to SoFi Stadium, with both teams likely fighting for playoff positioning. It’s also the Texans’ second trip to SoFi this year (they opened the season against the Rams), which helps with familiarity in terms of routine, travel, and environment—something that could matter in a high-pressure spot. With limited games on the Week 17 slate, this game is a strong candidate to be flexed into a standalone Saturday national window.
Coaching Chess Match: This is Year 2 of the Jim Harbaugh–Greg Roman era in Los Angeles, and the identity is exactly what you'd expect: physical, run-first football built around controlling the line of scrimmage and protecting Herbert. The Chargers have added some young talent, including rookie WR Tre Harris and rookie RB Omarion Hampton, but I don’t expect either to be game-changers in Year 1—especially against a defense as disciplined and multiple as DeMeco Ryans’.
Even with Ladd McConkey offering a reliable target, this isn’t an explosive group of weapons. And if the Texans force the Chargers to become one-dimensional, it plays into the hands of a Houston defense that’s built to close.
Matchups to Watch:
DeMeco Ryans vs. Justin Herbert, Round 2. Ryans had the upper hand last postseason and will likely bring a similar pressure-heavy, disguise-heavy approach.
Texans pass rush vs. Chargers offensive line, especially if Houston can build a lead and force Herbert into obvious passing downs.
Texans secondary vs. young Chargers skill players—Houston’s depth and communication on the back end could be the difference in a tight game.
Outlook: This won’t be easy. Harbaugh teams are tough and rarely beat themselves, and on the road in a likely primetime window, Houston will need to bring its A-game. But I believe the Texans are built to win this type of battle—veteran poise at quarterback, a defense that can finish, and just enough playmakers to tip the scale.
Prediction: A tough, physical, grind-it-out road win for Houston. The Texans prove once again that they belong in the AFC’s top tier.
Prediction: Win. Texans improve to 12-4.
Week 18 vs. Colts
Storylines: Final game of the regular season. For the Colts, this likely marks the end of another middling campaign. By this point, they could be out of playoff contention and using Week 18 to evaluate their roster heading into the offseason—especially at quarterback, where it's unclear if Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones will be starting, or if they're already looking toward 2026.
On the flip side, the Texans could be in any number of scenarios. If they’re locked into a seed,
a “rest the starters” approach might be considered—but based on what we’ve seen from DeMeco Ryans, he’s not a coach who embraces rust. Even last year, DeMeco leaned toward playing starters to keep them sharp, and given the depth of this roster, Houston should still be plenty competitive regardless of who’s in the lineup.
Division Context:This is also a chance to complete a full sweep of the AFC South, something the Texans fell just short of last season due to a frustrating late-season loss at home to the Titans. That slip-up cost them a perfect divisional record, and with the Colts already projected to be beaten once in Week 13, this matchup gives Houston the opportunity to finally seal the deal.
It may not be flashy, but this is the kind of win that sets a tone heading into the playoffs—and one that division opponents will feel all offseason.
Prediction: Whether it’s for playoff seeding, homefield advantage, or simply momentum, I expect the Texans to take care of business and finish the sweep of the AFC South.
Result: Win. Texans finish the regular season 13-4.
Final Thoughts: The Pendulum Swings Again
Last year, expectations ballooned too fast. This year, the pendulum swings back—underhyped, underappreciated, and underestimated. Just the way DeMeco likes it.
And the fans? We've learned too. Last year’s disappointment built callouses. But it also built perspective. Now, the Texans are not some Cinderella story—they’re a damn good football team.
Nick Caley’s offense won’t be stubborn like Slowik’s. This team is deeper at every position. Stroud has command. The defense may be the best in football.
So what’s the ceiling? What’s the floor?
Scenario | Record | Why |
Ceiling | 14-3 | Texans emmulate 2024 Lions. Blow teams out early, stay healthy, and CJ Stroud pushes for MVP. |
Floor | 11-6 | Injuries, pass protection still struggles, or tough travel stretches derail key games. Still a playoff team. |
Prediction | 13-4 | Houston sweeps the South, splits the hard road games, and enters the playoffs with momentum and belief. |
Final Takeaway:
I believe the Texans will make the AFC Championship Game at the very least this season.
Yes, last year as a fanbase, we may have overcorrected from the early-season hype and disappointment—but I truly believe we’ve now pulled back too far. I understand the questions about new offensive coordinator Nick Caley, but everything the Texans have done since that Divisional Round loss to Kansas City has pointed directly at what the real problem was: Bobby Slowik and offensive line coach Chris Strausser.
This offseason has been one giant indictment of last year’s coaching—not the players. The team kept guys like Juice Scruggs and Jarrett Patterson, who were thrown into the fire and struggled mentally, not physically. They signed multiple veteran, no-nonsense linemen like Ed Ingram, Laken Tomlinson, Cam Robinson, Trent Brown, and Jake Andrews, and didn’t use premium draft capital on a high-end interior lineman. Instead, they targeted a potential developmental left tackle in Aeriontae Ersery. That all tells me the issue wasn’t talent—it was technique, mental processing, and scheme. My eyes—and the film—confirm that: the breakdowns were mental, not physical. And those can be fixed.
Nick Caley was brought in to check every box that Slowik didn’t:
Adaptability
Game-specific planning
Flexibility around personnel
He and DeMeco Ryans both emphasized that in Caley’s opening press conference. Caley won’t just run wide zone no matter what. He’ll tailor the gameplan to the opponent’s weakness—whether that means going heavy 12 personnel, spreading it out with 10, leaning run-heavy or airing it out. Most importantly, he’ll build the offense around CJ Stroud, not the other way around.
From what we’ve heard in interviews, Stroud will have more control at the line—setting protections, getting to the line earlier, and executing with more autonomy. We’ll finally see receivers with real option routes, more hot reads, and fewer players being miscast into roles that don’t fit their strengths. Expect more McVay- and McDaniels-style adjustments, and less rigidity.
This year is the year we get what we expected last year:
CJ Stroud MVP-level season, pushing 5,000 passing yards
Joe Mixon with 1,500+ all-purpose yards in a more downhill, gap-heavy scheme and as a real receiving threat
An even better defense, deeper and more versatile, with improved secondary depth and continuity across the board
Most importantly, the offense will now be able to cash in off defensive turnovers and red zone chances. Add new weapons like Christian Kirk and Jayden Higgins, and you’re looking at a team that can finally finish drives early—and once they build a lead, they can snowball games into blowouts.
That means fewer "Stressan" moments. Fewer “playing with our food” games. This is the year the Texans finally start putting teams away. With an elite defense pinning its ears back in known passing downs, and DeMeco Ryans dialing up pressure, this team has everything it needs.
This is the year we all expected last year. Only now, we’re stronger, smarter, and deeper.
The AFC better be ready.
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