Texans Pending Free Agents: Who to Re-Sign, Who to Replace, and Why It’s Not That Simple

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The Texans have a long list of pending free agents.

But this isn’t just about who played well.

It’s about market value.

Replacement cost.

Scheme fit.

Draft depth.

Continuity.

Cap strategy.

And yes — the reality that Houston may get priced out of a few.

Every decision this offseason exists in context. Free agency is never just “is he good?” It’s “is he good at the price, relative to alternatives, relative to the system, and relative to where this roster is headed?”

Some of these players are easier to replace than people may think.

Some are much harder.

Let’s go player by player.

Christian Kirk — Medium to Low

Christian Kirk is one of the more nuanced cases.

His previous contract carried an $18M AAV when Jacksonville signed him and later moved him. It’s unlikely he commands that number again, especially after an underwhelming season and durability concerns.

The argument to re-sign him?

Continuity with C.J. Stroud.

This offense demands receivers and quarterback be on the same page — especially in the slot where route adjustments, coverage recognition, and option concepts are critical. The Texans’ system gives receivers freedom. That freedom only works when both sides see the defense the same way.

Late in the year, particularly against Pittsburgh, it finally started to click. Timing. Spacing. Trust.

The divisional loss to New England was where the hesitation really shows up. With Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz unavailable, that was supposed to be the moment Christian Kirk became Stroud’s security blanket if ever. Cold weather may have been a factor, but when the offense needed a stabilizing presence most, his impact dipped instead of rising. In a scheme that requires the slot to see the field through the quarterback’s eyes, that absence mattered.

The hesitation?

Durability is a legitimate concern.

And stylistically, Kirk isn’t necessarily the ultra-cerebral, gritty, coverage-dissecting slot that thrives in this offense. He’s more of a vertical slot threat than a “read it like the QB” type. At times, it was surprising how often he and Stroud weren’t fully aligned mentally given his veteran experience. You can make an arugment it started to evolve and you don't want to throw away the time on task together spent, but I'm not sure it clicked or will click the way it should.

If his number drops into a more reasonable tier, continuity could justify keeping him. But if the market inflates? Houston may pivot to the draft or look for a cheaper veteran option.

Price matters here more than name recognition.

Jimmie Ward — Low

Jimmie Ward is 34 years old.

He’s coming off a serious foot injury.

While the Texans absolutely could’ve used him last season, the reality is the defense found depth.

Rookie Jaylen Reed played well when called upon at SS.

M.J. Stewart stepped in effectively before his own injury at SS.

Calen Bullock continues to ascend at FS.

Jalen Pitre is a bonafide star in the Nickle "star" role.

And Stewart himself is a free agent.

Going into Year 2, Reed likely takes another step. Stewart could return on a cheaper deal. The draft and free agency both offer safety depth at more affordable price points.

Ward was a tone-setter when healthy. But at this stage of his career, paying veteran money for a declining player at a position where you’ve developed depth doesn’t align with the broader roster build.

This feels like a natural transition point.

Denico Autry — Medium to High

Denico Autry is one of the most underrated pieces of this defense.

His versatility is incredibly valuable in DeMeco Ryans’ system. He can align as a traditional edge, reduce inside as an interior rusher on passing downs, and give you depth at two positions with one roster spot.

That flexibility matters in a rotation-heavy defense.

He also brings something fans don’t always quantify — field goal block impact. Autry has blocked kicks. He’s affected kicks. Even when he doesn’t get there, his presence alters timing and trajectory. That has directly impacted games.

Price is critical here.

There may be trade options (I've keyed several targets that are very similiar players that I will address in a future article) or draft fits that provide similar versatility at a lower cost. If that path becomes viable, it could impact Autry’s future.

But purely from a football standpoint? He’s a DeMeco Ryans defender. Tough. Versatile. Reliable. Scheme-aligned.

If the number is right, keeping him makes sense.

Sheldon Rankins — High to Medium

Sheldon Rankins isn’t flashy.

He’s not going to lead SportsCenter (except for when he had a fumble return TD vs the Steelers).

But he might be one of the most important pieces to keep.

Rankins understands how to rush — not just individually, but collectively. In a defense built on coordinated pressure, rush lane integrity matters. If multiple rushers aren’t working together, quarterbacks escape through vacated lanes.

Rankins gets that.

He rushes with awareness. He complements Will Anderson Jr. He understands spacing and timing within this aggressive attack front.

Coming off an illness-impacted season in Cincinnati the year prior, he signed on a reasonable deal and played at a high level. Veteran presence. Steady production. Scheme fluency.

He’s likely on the tail end of his career and may value winning over squeezing every last dollar.

If Houston can bring him back at a fair number, he’s one of the more important retention pieces along the defensive line.

Derek Barnett — Medium to High

Derek Barnett has been quietly impactful since arriving.

He provides real depth at edge — and that matters in this defense.

DeMeco rotates his defensive line. Some fans get frustrated when Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter aren’t on the field every snap. But the philosophy is clear: keep stars fresh for critical downs and late-game situations.

To execute that, you need rotational trust.

Barnett provides that.

He’s made timely plays. He’s produced sacks. He’s shown up in the playoffs. And yes — he has an uncanny ability to find the end zone. The guy seems to produce defensive touchdowns annually.

Continuity in a complex defensive front has value.

Could Houston replace him in the draft? Yes. Edge depth is usually available. But a proven veteran who understands the system carries weight.

If the number is reasonable, keeping him helps maintain defensive rhythm.

E.J. Speed — High Medium

Some viewed E.J. Speed as primarily a special teams addition.

That undersells him.

He started games. He rotated heavily in 4-3 looks. He functioned as both a SAM and WILL. He rotated with Henry To’oTo’o. He embraced the “swarm” mentality that defines this defense.

He hits. He runs. He competes.

And he’s the type of player who seems to genuinely want to be here.

If the price is team-friendly — and it likely will be — bringing him back makes sense. He can compete for a starting role or maintain a strong rotational presence while continuing development in Year 2 under DeMeco Ryans and the linebackers coach.

He fits the culture.

That matters.

Tommy Townsend — High

If you asked most fans how Tommy Townsend played last season, you’d probably get a lukewarm answer.

It felt like he wasn’t as dominant.

Maybe that’s expectations. Maybe it’s timing of misses or field position in high-leverage moments. Sometimes perception is shaped more by situation than by overall performance.

After watching Michael Dickson swing field position in the Super Bowl for Seattle, I started asking myself a simple question:

How valuable is an elite punter?

And more importantly — is Townsend slipping from that tier?

The answer, after digging into advanced metrics, is no.

Via PFF, Townsend graded as the 5th-highest punter in the league (81.9). Dickson was first at 91.2.

Dickson signed a 4-year, $16M extension after his rookie deal expired in 2025. That’s the market for an elite punter.

Townsend:

• 3rd most punts (80) — reflects Houston leaning on defense and field position

• 2nd-highest graded punter in the postseason (72.1)

• T-4th in punts inside the 20 (32)

• T-5th in hangtime (4.52 seconds)

• 41.8 net average (17th overall)

  
  

Net average is key here — it measures yards gained per punt after subtracting return yardage and touchbacks. It’s the true field position metric.

Dickson was at 43.2. Townsend at 41.8. That gap is smaller than perception suggests.

There’s also the holding factor.

Townsend has now built chemistry with Ka’imi Fairbairn and helped him during a record-setting season. In a league where special teams can swing playoff games, that matters.

DeMeco Ryans is a defensive head coach. He leans on field position. He believes in winning hidden yardage.

Townsend signed a 2-year, $6M deal with Houston two years ago. Something similar is absolutely worth it.

This is a priority.

Tim Settle Jr. — High to Medium

The only reason Tim Settle isn’t a flat-out “high” is injury context.

Assuming he has adequate time to rehab, he’s exactly what this defense needs.

Settle took a clear step forward in Year 2 under DeMeco Ryans. He provided interior push as a 3-tech, held up against the run, and fit cleanly into the attack front.

Interior disruption matters in this scheme.

You can find 1-tech run stuffers.

You can draft developmental guys.

But proven interior rushers who already understand the system? That’s different.

If the price is reasonable — and it should be — bringing him back keeps continuity on a defensive line that thrives on coordinated pressure.

Foley Fatukasi — Low

Foley is more of a true 1-tech run stuffer than most of Houston’s defensive tackles.

The issue?

Limited snap versatility.

He played just four games last season and was placed on IR after shoulder surgery. Injuries have followed him throughout his tenure.

With the draft offering run-stuff depth annually and not a heavy reliance of a 1-tech in this scheme, this feels replaceable.

He signed a cheap one-year deal late in free agency last year.

If brought back, it would need to be on a similar low-cost structure.

Otherwise, there are plenty of alternatives.

M.J. Stewart — Medium to High

M.J. Stewart doesn’t get much love, but coaches do.

When Houston released C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Stewart stepped in at strong safety and handled it well before tearing his quad in Week 10.

He’s primarily a special teams ace — but he developed into a rotational defender DeMeco could trust. That’s significant.

The strong safety role in this defense requires:

• Discipline

• Football IQ

• Being in the right place

• Playing aggressively without losing gap integrity

  
  

Stewart checks those boxes.

If you can bring him back on a team-friendly deal, having him compete with Jaylen Reed for snaps makes sense.

He fits the swarm identity.

Nick Chubb — Low

I actually thought Chubb was underutilized and still effective.

He averaged 4.2 yards per carry and provided physical interior rushing. He wasn’t a home-run hitter anymore, but he wore defenses down.

That said:

Age.

Injury history.

Market alternatives.

There are simply too many running back options available via free agency and the draft.

With Woody Marks in the picture and Jawhar Jordan as a depth piece, Houston can reallocate resources elsewhere.

It’s about positional replaceability.

Naquan Jones — Medium

Jones was added late and took a week or two to acclimate.

Then he started flashing.

We’ve seen this pattern before:

Togiai. (added late)

Settle. (not added late, just overlooked and thrived in new scheme)

Edwards Jr. (not added late, just overlooked and thrived in new scheme)

Players bounce around the league, arrive in DeMeco’s system, and elevate once they grasp the attack philosophy.

If you can get Jones at a cheap depth price, he’s worth continuing to develop.

Interior defensive line depth is critical in this scheme.

Dare Ogunbowale — Medium to Low

Context matters.

This isn’t about him as RB3 or RB4.

It’s about special teams.

Frank Ross covets him. The staff values his versatility and leadership.

He likely doesn’t have a strong external market, meaning his cost should remain negligible.

If he returns, it’s as a special teams asset first.

If he doesn’t, it won’t materially impact the offense.

That’s why he lands in the middle to low tier.

Braxton Berrios — Low

I liked the signing last year.

But he was barely activated.

He seemed like insurance at punt return in case Noel wasn’t ready. I thought he’d get more slot reps, but that never materialized.

If they didn’t use him then, why would they now?

He’s a solid player.

But roster spots have to serve purpose.

Ed Ingram — Medium to High

This one is complicated.

Houston traded for him last year and carried a manageable cap hit around $3–4M.

Now, reports suggest a potential $15–18M AAV market (per Aaron Wilson).

That’s a massive jump.

Ingram had a career year under Cole Popovich and this system. The question becomes:

Are you paying for sustainable performance?

Or paying for peak timing?

The Texans found him cheap and maximized him. That tells me they can develop guards in this scheme again.

Continuity matters.

But versatility and market efficiency matter more.

If the number climbs too high, Houston may pivot to other FA guards or the draft.

Trent Brown — Medium to High

Durability is the concern.

Performance was not.

Like Ingram, he exceeded expectations and stabilized the line. But if you re-sign him at starter money, you may bypass other long-term options in free agency or the draft.

Blake Fisher is also in the picture as a swing tackle.

Brown brings mentality, experience, and leadership in the room. He understands Cole Popovich’s teaching and Nick Caley’s approach.

At the right number? Yes.

At starter money? That becomes tricky.

Christian Harris — Low

I thought they should have traded him last spring.

It became apparent the staff didn’t view him the way fans did after his viral pick-six against Cleveland in the 2023 playoffs.

He battled a mysterious injury most of 2024. Returned late. Started a few games due to others being injured. Then was relegated to special teams in the playoffs — and that role continued.

This didn’t feel like “still recovering.”

It felt like being outplayed.

Henry To’oTo’o.

E.J. Speed.

The flashes didn’t sustain.

I like Harris. I hope he succeeds elsewhere.

But this feels like a transition.

Myles Bryant — Medium to Low

This one depends on role and price.

Fans didn’t love him when he was forced into heavy nickel/SS snaps due to injuries.

But as a depth piece?

Valuable.

He knows DeMeco’s defense.

He plays multiple positions.

He’s reliable and intelligent.

He contributes on special teams.

At a minimum deal, that’s a worthwhile depth retention.

Harrison Bryant — Low

He was a necessity signing after Brevin Jordan and Cade Stover went down.

But Houston needs a blocking tight end, something we'd hope he provide in the least but didn't. Wasn't a reliable target either.

He’s replaceable via free agency or the draft.

Damone Clark — Low

Late-season add.

Fringe roster guy.

Depth only.

Kurt Hinish — Low

Back-end depth with injury history.

Could return late if needed because he knows the system.

But not a priority.

Leki Fotu — Low

Another late-season depth signing during the DT injury wave.

Solid effort.

Not a difference-maker.

With a healthier defensive line pool this offseason, there should be better options available.

K’Von Wallace — Low

Fringe roster defensive back.

Replaceable.

Ja’Marcus Ingram — Low

End-of-half Hail Mary interception against Drake Maye was memorable.

But roster reality is roster reality.

Fringe player.

Practice squad candidate at best.

The Bigger Picture

This entire exercise comes down to value.

Houston is in a true contention window.

That means:

You can’t just keep everyone.

You can’t overpay based on familiarity.

You can’t ignore draft depth at certain positions.

Continuity matters.

But cap discipline matters more.

Some of these players will price themselves out.

Some will take team-friendly deals.

Some will be replaced by draft picks who are cheaper and more explosive.

That’s how sustained contenders operate.